Keeping the lights on

Manitobans are hardy.

We live, work and play in one of the harshest winter climates in the world.

We’re used to the cold and the dark. We’re also used to escaping it by turning on the lights and the heat.

Manitoba Hydro’s responsibility is to make sure that works, no matter what and no matter when.

How we meet that responsibility was the focus of recent Public Utilities Board hearings on Manitoba Hydro’s integrated resource plan. Critics, who are not responsible for the reliability of your energy system, have questioned our planning, often by pointing to examples from other jurisdictions.

But Manitoba’s energy challenges are unique, and so are the solutions.

The greatest demands on our electricity system occur on frigid winter mornings and evenings, often during prolonged cold snaps. Those peak periods continue to set records.

In 2013, Manitoba’s peak electricity demand was about 4,600 megawatts. By 2019, it had climbed above 4,900 megawatts. In 2025, it reached a record 5,111 megawatts. By 2030, winter peak demand could exceed the capacity of our generating system.

To prepare for that challenge, Manitoba Hydro’s planners, engineers and scientists evaluated a wide range of options, including wind, solar, battery storage and other resources.

Wind energy will play an important role in Manitoba’s future. Our plan includes purchasing energy from new majority Indigenous-owned wind projects. But wind generation depends on weather conditions and cannot always be counted on when demand is highest.

One day last January, as electricity demand approached peak levels, Manitoba’s two existing wind farms generated less than two megawatts of power, a tiny fraction of their combined installed capacity of 258 megawatts.

Batteries also have a role to play. But current technology typically provides only a few hours of backup power during winter peak conditions. Manitoba’s reliability challenge can extend for days, or even weeks, during periods of extreme cold.

Manitoba Hydro’s experts are neither anti-wind nor pro-fossil fuel. If their analysis showed wind and battery storage alone could reliably keep Manitobans warm and powered through winter peaks, that would be the plan.

Our planning found that gas combustion turbines are the only option available within the required timeframe that can provide reliable, on-demand capacity during periods of peak demand.

They are not a replacement for renewable energy. They support it by providing dependable backup power when renewable generation is unavailable or unable to meet demand. They would operate only when needed. Approximately 97 per cent of Manitoba Hydro’s electricity would continue to come from renewable hydroelectric generation, and Manitoba would remain on its path toward net-zero emissions.

Our integrated resource plan is also efficiency-first, with more than 800 megawatts in energy saving measures between Efficiency Manitoba and Manitoba Hydro. That’s enough capacity to serve about 230,000 homes.

And Manitoba Hydro customers would continue to pay among the lowest electricity rates in North America.

Critics often cite examples from elsewhere. But context matters.

North Dakota has thousands of megawatts of wind generation. It also maintains substantial coal and natural gas generation to ensure reliability.

Nova Scotia has invested in large-scale battery storage. It is also procuring additional fossil-fuel generation resources to help meet peak demand.

Australia is doing more with solar energy. Of course it is. Australia often faces the challenge of managing an abundance of sunshine. Manitoba’s challenge is keeping the heat on during a week of -30 C temperatures when daylight hours are short.

Many utilities, including Manitoba Hydro, are incorporating more renewable generation into their systems, while also investing in combustion turbines to ensure reliable electricity when it is needed most. Worldwide demand for these turbines has never been higher.

Manitobans have built one of the cleanest and most affordable electricity systems in North America. Our responsibility is to ensure it remains reliable for the future.

Manitobans deserve a discussion about our energy future grounded in evidence, sound planning and the realities of our climate. That’s exactly what Manitoba Hydro’s integrated resource plan is designed to provide.

Hal Turner is interim president and CEO of Manitoba Hydro.