Ukraine and Russia’s other war

The violent chess match between Kyiv and Moscow continues. Air defences are running thin as both sides shift their focus away from front lines rendered an automated kill zone by AI-powered weapons. Long-range Ukrainian drones are striking Russian oil refineries — the Kremlin’s cash cow. Russia is bludgeoning Ukrainian society by bombing its power grid, telecoms and residential areas.

A continent over, another battlefield is also heating up.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff (and former spymaster) twice last month posted photos tacitly confirming what’s been an open secret for years — Ukrainian intelligence agents are supporting rebel groups in attacks on Russian military contractors on African soil.

CNN then reported Ukrainian operatives in northern Mali are schooling ethnic Tuareg separatists in drone warfare. “I co-ordinate their operations remotely,” said one Ukrainian agent. “The signal from their drone comes to me over the internet, and I immediately tell them via radio what to do and where to fly.” Insurgents from nearby countries have reportedly travelled to Mali to receive instruction, as well.

Ukrainian special forces have been active in the region since mid-2024, when they supplied intelligence for a major Tuareg ambush on state security forces backed by Russian mercenaries. Ukrainian operatives have also fought against Russia-backed paramilitaries in Sudan’s civil war. An investigation by French public broadcaster RFI earlier this year detailed Ukrainians gaining access to bases in Libya to strike Russian vessels in the Mediterranean in exchange for training local militias.

It’s a bold strategy. And doing so “offers Kyiv a relatively inexpensive way to impose comparatively high military and financial costs on Russia,” an expert from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a German research institute, told the Globe and Mail. Yet, while helping Russia’s opponents may yield tactical gains, he said, “association with armed groups can undermine the trust Ukraine is trying to build with African states.”

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, African governments have experienced a charm offensive from Kyiv. This includes the opening of numerous sparkling embassies as well as launching a “Grain from Ukraine” humanitarian food-aid initiative. The goal being to weaken political support for Russia in multilateral forums such as the G20 and United Nations.

However, there’s a long way to go to displace Moscow’s entrenched influence across the world’s youngest and fastest-growing region.

Since 2014, when it was hit by heavy Western sanctions over its annexation of Crimea, Russia’s government and business community have pivoted to Africa. Diplomatic, economic and security deals have been struck in dozens of countries. These have produced political co-operation and media partnerships across the continent. Plus, counter-insurgency support, elite protection, weapons transfers and more.

In 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted about his country possessing military-technical co-operation agreements with more than 40 African countries. Russian mercenaries, first with the Wagner Group. but since absorbed by Russia’s defence ministry and rebranded the Africa Corps, also roam across the continent.

In each case, deals are tailored to the desires of local elites and top-down interests — not citizens. Researchers from the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, have described these flexible offerings as the Kremlin dangling a “regime survival package” to embattled African governments. In turn, Moscow benefits through shell companies it controls getting cut-rate access to resources, such as gold, diamonds, fisheries and critical minerals.

Still, despite Moscow’s predatory behaviour and the abuses and human rights violations committed by its mercenaries, sophisticated digital propaganda campaigns have buoyed public perceptions of Russia across the continent.

Survey data released in July shows 83 per cent of African youth have a positive view of Russia’s presence on the continent — on par with perceptions of the U.S. and a sharp rise from 68 per cent in 2024. This despite a string of media investigations revealing last year that Russia has been duping African workers with fake job offers in Russia before throwing them into combat positions or gruelling labour roles supporting war time production.

Ukraine’s strategy appears to be that by offering clandestine support to African insurgent groups battling repressive military governments allied with Russia, Kyiv can expose the hollow promise that partnering with Moscow can bring peace and prosperity — while also dealing a blow to Russia’s foreign policy priorities. However, this is a dangerous game.

“For many Africans, this was yet another case of outside powers exploiting the continent as a bloody playing field for their own rivalries,” an Africa analyst wrote for the BBC in 2024 after Ukraine’s support for Tuareg insurgents in Mali.

It won’t be the last either.

Kyle Volpi Hiebert is a Montreal-based political risk analyst focused on globalization, conflict and emerging technologies.