Manitoba PC brand needs restoration

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 31/12/2021 (1555 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A Conservative friend recently asked me what Premier Heather Stefanson could do to give the Progressive Conservative party a chance to win the next election, scheduled for October 2023. My glib response, meant to be humorous, was to quote the advice of the late Texas oil billionaire J. Paul Getty: “Rise early, work hard and strike oil.”

I then added that given successive waves of COVID-19, the disruptions and lack of capacity associated with the sweeping overhaul and downsizing of the health system, and the tight-fisted budgetary policies that compounded those problems and worsened the economic downturn, it will be exceedingly difficult to restore public confidence in the PC party.

As leader and premier, Stefanson must demonstrate — not just in words, but more importantly in deeds — that her government is willing to listen and to learn which policies meet the needs and address the concerns of all Manitobans.

This includes a willingness to acknowledge opposition criticism and look for opportunities to collaborate across party lines. Genuine consultation, rather than ritualistic online one-way surveys, would also help.

The Stefanson government has already signalled new directions in terms of both policies and governing approaches, including such actions as dropping five contentious bills (particularly the notorious Bill 64, the drastic education overhaul), the promised repeal of the public-sector wage freeze statute and abandoning the constitutional challenge to the federal carbon tax.

Also of note were finalizing a child-care agreement with Ottawa, signing a pledge with the nurses’ union to address the critical nursing shortage, taking steps to establish more harmonious relationships with Indigenous peoples, and loosening the purse strings to respond more adequately to problems, especially to the Omicron/COVID-19 wave and the latest economic setbacks.

Management of the Omicron wave will be the main issue on voters’ minds as we approach the next election. Making appropriate decisions to impose and enforce tighter restrictions and adding capacity (money, staff, equipment) to the health system will be key to any political recovery for the PCs.

A measure of political courage will be involved with such decisions as the premier tries to straddle the political divide between the urban progressive wing and the rural conservative wing of her party, which disagree on such topics as vaccinations, economic restrictions and budgetary restraint.

Communications and tone coming out of the premier’s office have become central to successful politics and governing. The former premier was known for being defensive and combative, often making inappropriate and socially divisive remarks for which offended parties demanded apologies.

Stefanson is a cautious communicator, too often frustratingly vague, but we can be grateful she avoids the inflammatory rhetoric of her predecessor. Especially during emergencies, voters expect governments to seek consensus, not to escalate social conflict.

The opposition and other critics will describe Stefanson as “Pallister lite,” claiming that she is pursuing the same agenda with the same supporting cast. They will criticize her for not resigning in protest over Pallister’s contentious policies and statements.

As health minister, she had the opportunity to impose stricter public-health measures but failed to act. Proceeding with the ongoing reorganization of the health system during an emergency, the critics argue, is unwise and risky. Lineups for testing, dropping contact tracing and an overwhelmed health system will be other lines of attack.

Recent funding support to businesses will be labelled inadequate in relation to devastating economic consequences of another economic shutdown.

In response to these predictable attacks, the premier and her party need to follow two broad communications strategies of “inoculation”and “moderation.” Inoculation involves taking steps to mitigate negative voter perceptions on high-profile issues by demonstrating humility, even going so far as to accept the criticisms of political opponents.

Moderation consists of avoiding extreme ideological positions in favour of more pragmatic, evidence-based policy approaches, which are delivered through more sophisticated, targeted communications strategies and tactics.

A cabinet shuffle in the spring would bring some fresh perspectives to the cabinet table and create the team that will be presented to voters for the 2023 election.

One final piece of free advice: find a way to strike oil.

Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba