Military storms brewing in South China Sea

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 15/07/2021 (1548 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE West’s list of security concerns around China’s ascent to superpower status is long, from the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s persecution of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang and its subjugation of Hong Kong, to China’s support for Myanmar’s military junta, obfuscation of the origins of COVID-19, affinity for hostage diplomacy, weaponization of trade, cyberespionage and more.

However, none of these issues holds the potential for explosive confrontation like China’s ongoing capture of the South China Sea.

The South China Sea stretches 3.5 million square kilometres from China’s southern coastline to Malaysia, possessing abundant fish stocks and massive untapped oil, mineral and gas reserves. Its waterways are also a vital artery for global trade, with one-third of the world’s goods, worth more than US$3.3 trillion, transiting the region every year.

China claims 90 per cent of the strategic area for itself, including parts some 2,000 kilometres away from its mainland. Various Chinese scholars say there is historical evidence that China’s past imperial empires exercised sovereignty over the waters for centuries; half a dozen nearby nations disagree. Modern maritime law is also not on China’s side.

A UN tribunal in 2016 rejected China’s territorial claims. But with no means of enforcement apparent, China has carried on dredging up the sea floor to create a series of artificial islands and military installations across the region, complete with airfields, warplane hangars, radar stations, long-range missile batteries and naval harbors capable of sheltering nuclear submarines.

This spectacular feat of engineering is in effect manifesting China’s debunked claims into reality.

China has simultaneously enabled itself to project power far from its shores, amassing a naval armada larger than that of the U.S. — including one refurbished aircraft carrier, a second domestically built prototype and a third under construction. China’s aggressive fishing fleet, consisting of hundreds of thousands of vessels, also doubles as a maritime militia force. Beijing has conspicuously flexed these new capabilities, drawing pushback from the West.

China’s Communist Party in February passed new legislation permitting the Chinese coast guard to fire upon foreign ships unauthorized to enter Chinese waters, an overt response to the way the U.S. navy and its allies, including Canada, routinely conduct freedom of navigation exercises throughout the region, most recently in June.

These drills are meant to test Beijing’s will in accordance with established laws — to which China is a signatory — that specify vessels from any nation can freely pass through international waters.

Smaller nations that ring the South China Sea are also mobilizing over the rising tensions. Malaysia raised the alarm in early June after 16 Chinese warplanes breached its airspace, while the Philippines’ government was recently granted approval to buy US$ 2.5 billion worth of new American fighter jets and missiles after more than 200 Chinese fishing vessels in March gathered off a disputed reef claimed by Manila.

Indonesia and Vietnam have both recently upgraded their own maritime forces, and an economic bloc of 10 southeast Asian countries is attempting to institute a diplomatic code of conduct for the region.

Then there’s Taiwan, which has its own territorial claims within the South China Sea.

China’s Communist Party views the autonomous, democratically governed island of 23 million people as a renegade Chinese province, and China’s President Xi Jinping has vowed to bring the country under Chinese control during his time as leader — by force if necessary. Chinese warplanes now probe Taiwanese airspace on a near-daily basis, and the Chinese military conducted an amphibious combat landing exercise near Taiwan in June.

Numerous experts predict that China, having sealed its grip on Hong Kong, may set its sights on Taiwan next.

But whether a Chinese military operation could successfully annex Taiwan is debatable. Some observers even say that hyping China’s threat to Taiwan plays into the Communist Party’s hands by instilling false fear of a looming invasion that Beijing can leverage to its advantage in other ways. Any attack on Taiwan would also badly damage the global economy — China included — given that the island nation produces more than half of the world’s supply of semiconductors.

Instead of a premeditated attack, the bigger risk of violence breaking out in the South China Sea as military hardware pours into the region may stem from an accident or miscalculation spiralling out of control. The Biden administration’s lead authority for Asia said in May that when tested, the crisis de-escalation hotlines linking Chinese and American defence officials “have just rung, kind of endlessly in empty rooms.”

It seems very likely there are rough waters ahead.

Kyle Hiebert is a Winnipeg-based researcher and analyst, and former deputy editor of the Africa Conflict Monitor