People’s Party of Canada might be here to stay

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This article was published 15/10/2021 (1518 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

PEOPLE’S Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier, recently interviewed by CBC journalist Travis Dhanraj, was asked whether the PPC could survive without the pandemic to buoy its support. The question is a crucial one since, God willing, COVID-19 and the pandemic will be largely behind us by the time the next federal election rolls around.

Bernier’s response, naturally, was that his party will continue to grow, pandemic or not.

Is he correct? Maybe. But what we know for sure is that in the 2021 election, Bernier’s was the only party making a direct appeal to the segment of voters who are skeptical of vaccines and government restrictions — particularly vaccine passports — intended to stop the spread of the virus. Bernier himself focused on these themes explicitly to maximize motivation and turnout from Canadians who agreed.

More than once during the campaign, I talked with journalists who were stunned by the turnout at PPC rallies. Bernier’s arrest in St. Pierre-Jolys for flouting public-health orders helped to emphasize both the alleged heavy-handedness of these orders and Bernier’s own commitment to fighting them.

A Forum Research poll conducted in the middle of the recent election campaign found Bernier was cornering the market when it came to this segment of Canadians. The poll revealed that no fewer than 84 per cent of PPC voters were opposed to vaccine mandates. By comparison, only 42 per cent of Conservative voters, 11 per cent of NDP voters and five per cent of Liberal voters agreed.

In the same vein, 62 per cent of PPC voters had not been partially or fully vaccinated, much higher than the national number.

It’s clear the PPC received a boost in votes owing to its opposition to government restrictions. The result was the party finished with slightly less than five per cent of the vote, far ahead of its 2019 result of 1.62 per cent. Bernier also received more than twice as many votes as the Green Party, despite widespread mainstream acceptance of the Greens, as well as the fact former Green leader Annamie Paul (unlike Bernier) was permitted to participate in the leaders’ debates.

But despite the boost in votes, the PPC failed to win enough votes in any individual riding to elect a candidate, and so ended the night with no seats.

Can the PPC survive and continue to grow without the pandemic? My answer is a cautious, uncertain “yes.” While the pandemic will soon be in the rear-view mirror, politicians such as Bernier in other democracies have shown a remarkable ability to adapt to the times. Leaders of libertarian and small-”L” liberal parties can always find a market for their brand of get-off-my-back politics, and the growth of the state in developed democracies such as Canada means there will always be some form of government intrusion in the lives of individuals for these parties to protest.

There is every indication Bernier, an undoubtedly talented populist politician, can adapt his appeal, although he might never again find as profitable an issue as pandemic restrictions.

The fact the PPC might be here to stay means mainstream political parties and other institutions such as the media must find a way to engage with Bernier and challenge bad ideas. Dhanraj’s interview with Bernier was a good example of this. The PPC leader deserves to be asked tough questions and, as emotions over the pandemic die down, more and more PPC voters will likely notice the answers the smooth-talking Bernier provides are not always particularly convincing.

But not everyone agrees with this approach. Former Liberal cabinet minister Catherine McKenna, for example, demanded to know why the CBC was “giving Maxime Bernier a platform” by interviewing him. Instead, she wrote, “He should be interviewed by the police.” The idea here is that ignoring, marginalizing or censoring Bernier is the best way to cope with him and his politics.

But McKenna is wrong, in much the same way people think PPC supporters can be insulted and dismissed into irrelevance. They can’t. And further, we shouldn’t wish to do so. What we should want is to draw fellow Canadians into constructive mainstream democratic politics, not marginalize them into potential radicalism. Ask yourself: would you rather have people passing out pamphlets for the local PPC candidate, or blocking entrances to hospitals? Or worse?

When Forum asked PPC voters about their finances, 37 per cent reported either a “bad” or “very bad” personal economic situation. This contrasts with the national average of only 21 per cent of Canadians reporting financial dire straights. Is it any surprise that Canadians who are struggling, or who think their families have been left behind, feel betrayed by Canada’s political class, and thus are particularly susceptible to populist appeals such as Bernier’s?

Bernier is a challenge to Canada’s political class. Whether the PPC thrives or passes into the history books will largely be a result of whether and how that challenge is met.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.