Political aftershocks of 2021 will linger

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This article was published 24/12/2021 (1579 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

I used to always start my Introduction to Canadian Politics course by telling students it was a particularly great time to take the course, because so many interesting and remarkable things were happening. Then I finally noticed I was saying this every year, because Canadian politics is always interesting and remarkable.

You could say the same thing about Manitoba politics, but 2021 has been especially noteworthy. It’s worthwhile to think about what the events of 2021 will mean for the future, as we move toward the next provincial election, scheduled to take place in just under two years.

Of course, the most importance change is Brian Pallister’s departure as both premier and longtime leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. The former premier was severely damaged by the fallout of his government’s handling of the first three waves of the pandemic.

As the situation worsened, Pallister took the blame on himself, rather than dumping it on his ministers, becoming almost the sole face of the government’s communication with Manitobans about the pandemic. And while his freewheeling style saw the premier score some points early on, by the end his public performances were almost entirely panned.

The pandemic didn’t bring about the end of his time as premier. Rather, it was Pallister’s unguarded statements on residential schools, and his characteristic unwillingness to meaningfully apologize, that set the gears in motion that would eventually see him leave office.

The previously timid PC caucus asserted itself and Pallister, who only months — if not weeks — earlier was thought to rule with an iron fist, emerged from a party meeting in Brandon on Aug. 10 and threw in the towel.

Is the party in a stronger position with Heather Stefanson sitting in the premier’s chair? The answer is almost certainly “yes.” The memory of Pallister’s time in office will fade, as will the bumpy, contested race that saw Stefanson defeat Shelly Glover to become leader of the party.

And Stefanson’s biggest strength was revealed even prior to the leadership race: she enjoys very strong support from the party caucus, which will make her time as premier much easier.

But Stefanson has not done enough to initiate the remaking of the government in her own image. Despite some initiatives such as cancelling the Pallister government’s unpopular Bill 64 (the Education Modernization Act), Stefanson’s premiership feels like one of relative continuity rather than a sharp break with her predecessor.

The polls seem to bear this out, with the PCs seeing little improvement following the initial response to Pallister’s resignation.

Even with two years left until the next election, it’s likely the biggest challenge Stefanson will face has already arrived: the Omicron variant. Decisive leadership that shows a willingness to break with Pallister’s cautious reluctance to impose strong public-health restrictions will provide a foundation for Stefanson to build a new profile. But flunking the Omicron test will make the march to re-election that much more difficult.

What about Wab Kinew and the NDP? Kinew has had a comparably easy time as Opposition leader while media has focused on the PC government’s struggles to manage the pandemic and select a new leader. On the other hand, Kinew has also developed relentless discipline and focus as leader and has worked to keep the spotlight squarely on bread-and-butter NDP themes, particularly health and education.

The allegation that previous PC cuts to health care have made management of the COVID-19 pandemic difficult is particularly effective and damaging.

Much of the current NDP caucus was first elected under Kinew in the 2019 election. These MLAs have little, if any, experience with the internal NDP conflicts of the recent past. Further, NDP nominations in many Tory-held seats appear to be hotly contested by strong candidates, a reliable sign of confidence in the party’s prospects in the next election.

The party bureaucracy seems to be managing this process to ensure a strong slate in 2023. But beneath the surface, clear ideological fault lines have developed within the party, between left-wing MLAs and activists who prefer an unalloyed progressive party and moderates who hope to steer the party in a direction that will make it more palatable to the middle-class Winnipeg suburbanites whose votes will be needed to win an election.

The question of police reform and funding, for example, is a point of tension, as some NDP MLAs and activists have developed sharp critiques of the Winnipeg Police Service that dovetail with recent progressive campaigns elsewhere to “defund the police.” But what energizes young NDP activists may well be anathema to voters in Southdale, Riel and Fort Richmond who are more concerned about crime.

Tiptoeing among these fault lines will be a continuing challenge for Kinew — one that will become even more difficult as the pandemic finally recedes.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.