Years of drought

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This article was published 02/07/2009 (5939 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

EDMONTON — They are talking repeat in Calgary and of redemption in Montreal. There is hope here in the Alberta capital, a town still dubbed The City of Champions. And in Saskatchewan optimism rarely, if ever, wavers about the beloved Roughriders.

But as the lid is lifted on another Canadian Football League season, the discussion in Winnipeg about the Blue Bombers inevitably leads to references to The Drought — the 18 years since the last Grey Cup celebration, the four painful losses in subsequent championship games and a generation of diehards that has grown up without watching the local footballers slurp champagne from the ol’ mug.

Just how long does 18 years seem to some?

True story: Yours truly was telling tales of covering the last Bomber Grey Cup victory to my two sons when the oldest, now 10, said:

"Wow… 1990 is a long time ago. Was there colour TV back then?"

Now, granted, 18 seasons is a short nap compared to the 100 years between World Series crowns for the Chicago Cubs. And highlights of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ last Stanley Cup victory in 1967, for example, are predominantly in black and white and grey hues.

So don’t even begin to talk suffering to fans of the Cubs and Buds.

But in an eight-team league like the CFL, 18 years between Grey Cup parades can seem an eternity. It not only represents the longest current drought between championships among all CFL squads, but is the second-longest in the Bombers’ storied 79-year history, next to the 22 years between wins in 1962 and 1984.

All of which got us thinking: What are the odds of an organization participating in a small league going this long between Grey Cup wins?

Knowing we would get a severe brain cramp trying to wrestle with all the math behind this, we took the question to an expert — University of Manitoba statistics professor David Loewen — and he helped us crunch the numbers behind the Bombers drought.

Before we go further, two assumptions had to be made:

1. At the beginning of the season, each team has an equal chance to win the Grey Cup (debatable, yes, in the days before the salary management system). That means that in 2009, the probability the Bombers win the cup is 1/8, or 7/8 that they will not.

2. One season is independent of any other and winning or losing in one year does not affect the chance of them winning any other year.

Wrote Loewen in his detailed summation for us:

"With these two assumptions, the probability of not winning in any two years is the product of the two probabilities. Thus, if there are eight teams, the probability the Bombers fail to win two years in a row is (7/8) x (7/8) = 0.7656

"Similarly, the probability of failing to win 18 years in a row (1990-2008) by chance is the product of the 18 probabilities (varying depending on the number of teams in the CFL). This probability is (7/8) x (7/8) x (8/9) x (11/12) x . . . x (7/8) = 0.1098.

"Thus the probability of failing to win the Grey Cup for 18 consecutive years, by chance, is 0.11 or about 11%.

"Alternatively, the odds are 10 to 1 against failing to win for 18 consecutive years, by chance."

Loewen used the analogy of rolling a die repeatedly to help hammer this home. The odds of getting a six on a roll are 5 to 1. The probability of failing to land a six on five successive rolls is about 60 per cent (5/6) x (5/6) x (5/6) x (5/6) x (5/6).

But after repeatedly rolling the die and not landing a six, at what point do you begin to wonder whether the die is balanced or, in the case of Cubs’ supporters, starting believing in curses?

"Clearly, if I had 25 consecutive rolls of a die without getting a six, I would doubt that the die is balanced," Loewen said. "In fact, I would probably look to see if the die even had a six. The odds against that happening are 99 to 1.

"But back to the Bombers… How many years in a row should the Bombers fail to win the cup before I begin to doubt the assumption of all teams having an equal chance and begin thinking either there is inequality, incompetence, the football gods are against us, or whatever? Is 11 per cent for 18 years too small? That is a subjective decision.

"However, I understand how 18 consecutive years leaves Bomber fans quite frustrated."

Frustrated doesn’t begin to describe it, sir.

Our theories on the drought, for what it’s worth?

Certainly there was inequality in pre-salary cap days as private owners threw cash around at players while franchises like the Bombers and Roughriders watched in horror.

Incompetence, yeah, Bomber fans have seen a whole pile of that (see: Reinebold, Jeff; 1997-98).

And what do you call not having the starting quarterback at the controls for two Grey Cups (Matt Dunigan in ’93 and Kevin Glenn in ’07)? Well, that’s got curse written all over it.

All of which brings us to Thursday night in Edmonton when Mike Kelly leads the Bombers onto the field against the Eskimos as the sixth head coach since Mike Riley to take a shot at leading his troops to the promised land. They are far from cup favourites now but, as always, the Bombers and their quest to end their Grey Cup drought makes for riveting drama.

"Ending that drought is the main reason I’m back," Kelly said. "What was it, 22 years between Grey Cups when Cal (Murphy) won as a coach in 1984? We’re going to try and make sure it’s not 22 years. I don’t want this drought to get to that same level.

"That’s my whole focus in life right now. Honestly it is. It overwhelms me every day."

ed.tait@freepress.mb.ca

 

LONGEST STRETCHES BETWEEN CUP WINS IN BOMBER HISTORY 

1. 22 years: 1962-84

2. 18 years: 1990-current

3. 17 years: 1941-58

 

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

Longest current Stanley Cup championship droughts:

1. Chicago Blackhawks: 48 years (last win was 1961 cup)

2. Toronto Maple Leafs: 42 years (last win was 1967 Cup)

3. Los Angeles Kings/St. Louis Blues: 41 years (have not won since franchise inception in 1967-68

 

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

Longest current World Series droughts:

1. Chicago Cubs: 100 years (last win in 1908)

2. Cleveland Indians: 60 years (last win in 1948)

3. San Francisco Giants: 54 years (last win in 1954 as New York Giants)

 

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Longest current Super Bowl/NFL-AFL Championship droughts:

1. Arizona Cardinals: 61 years (last win 1947 NFL championship)

2. Detroit Lions: 51 (last win was 1957 NFL championship)

3. Philadelphia Eagles: 48 (last win was 1960 NFL championship)

 

NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

Longest NBA title droughts:

 1. Sacramento Kings: 58 years (last win was 1951 championship as Rochester Royals)

2. Atlanta Hawks: 48 (last win was 1961 as St. Louis Hawks)

3. Phoenix Suns: 41 (have not won a title since franchise inception in 1968)