Hellebuyck’s numbers down, but problems go beyond crease By: Andrew Berkshire Posted: 7:00 PM CST Friday, Dec. 7, 2018

Opinion

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This article was published 07/12/2018 (2465 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

After hitting a bit of a skid in the last couple weeks of November when they lost four of six games, the Jets have turned it around to win four straight heading into Friday’s matchup against the St. Louis Blues, averaging over four goals per game in the process.

They’ve needed that goal support because, outside of Tuesday’s win over the Islanders, they have allowed three or more against in seven of their last nine games. As it is any time a team allows a lot of goals over a short stretch, many are looking straight at Connor Hellebuyck and expecting him to shut the door, going forward.

Goaltending isn’t that simple, and as I mentioned in mid-November, there were signs this season that Hellebuyck’s performance so far this season was as good and in some ways superior to last season, despite the drop in save percentage.

Things change as time goes on though, and because Hellebuyck’s save percentage since then is an unimpressive 87.8 per cent, it’s probably worthwhile to look at his overall numbers to see what’s going on.

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Earlier in the season, Hellebuyck was stopping a higher percentage of the shots he faced from both the perimeter and the inner slot than he had in previous seasons, but after a rough stretch over the last three weeks, that’s no longer the case.

Overall, he isn’t letting in more weak goals from the perimeter than an average NHL goalie, but he’s being lit up from inside the slot at even strength, far below the benchmarks he established last season.

Goaltending can never be viewed in isolation

Part of the reason for that is that the Jets have been giving up far more dangerous chances this season than they did last season, especially off the rush, but as always, there’s more to the story.

Goaltending can never be viewed in isolation. How teams defend has a huge impact on the percentage of shots a goaltender is going to save; even the best goaltenders in the league can struggle on a team that can’t keep the puck out of dangerous areas, or can’t thwart passes to and through the middle of the ice or can’t recover rebounds.

Not all of those factors are entirely the job of the skaters though; rebounds can be controlled or recovered by the goaltender. That means that a certain amount of the shot quality a goaltender faces depends on their own performance in controlling where pucks go after making saves.

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Overall, Hellebuyck is controlling his rebounds on a lower percentage of the shots he faces at both five-on-five and in all situations, but it’s somewhat interesting that a glaring weakness he had last year in fighting through screens to control shots from the perimeter appears to be drastically improved, meaning he seems to be giving up more rebounds on clear shots than before.

It’s always a little confusing when goaltenders seem to be better on tougher shots than easier ones, but the fact remains that when everything is considered, Hellebuyck was an above-average rebound-controlling goaltender last year and he’s below average this year.

That becomes a problem when you have a team that’s also a bit more porous defensively, as these factors compound off of each other and make everyone’s jobs more difficult.

So what does all this data tell us in the grand scheme of things? We know that the Jets’ defensive play could use some improvement, and despite some strong play earlier in the season, Hellebuyck overall has not been great, though he hasn’t necessarily been a complete liability, either. His 90.4 per cent save percentage is only 0.36 per cent lower than the league average of 90.76, as save percentage is down across the league.

After a relatively smooth season last year where the team was a well-oiled machine that rocked through various injuries to key players and seemed unfazed, the Jets are facing a little more adversity this season under the surface, and yet they remain on pace for 109 points.

That total would be just five points shy of last season’s total, and Winnipeg has yet to see this roster’s peak. Struggles from any player can be frustrating, but how the Jets manage to battle through says a lot about their depth and the character of this squad.