Jets likely flying into turbulence after losing half of top-six D-men

Opinion

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This article was published 06/09/2019 (2197 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The NHL’s pre-season schedule begins in less than two weeks and the most challenging summer in the Jets/Thrashers franchise history has not yet concluded.

The impending cap crunch resulting from a series of excellent young players all needing new contracts was tough enough in theory and the immediate result was losing defencemen Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot as unrestricted free agents, along with trading Jacob Trouba to the New York Rangers for Neal Pionk and a first-round draft pick the Jets used to take Ville Heinola 20th overall this summer.

Myers and Chiarot were solid but replaceable talents on the Jets’ blue line, but Trouba was a big part of the top pairing with Josh Morrissey last season — the most effective pairing on a defence that largely struggled.

Even though Myers and Chiarot could be replaced, the cap crunch facing the Jets prevented them from going out and finding replacements, so management is stuck with finding internal solutions.

While the group of Jets defencemen looks weaker on paper, the situation at forward isn’t clear, either.

The cap situation was always going to be tough, and then this summer turned into the year of the restricted free agent, with very few of the high-profile RFAs around the NHL settling on new contracts.

Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine are two of those high-profile RFAs, and while they aren’t currently slotted into the lineup because of those protracted negotiations, it seems highly unlikely that we would see an offer sheet in September.

So even if this drags into the season, we can probably make the assumption both those players will be in Jets jerseys at some point.

Making that assumption simplifies the outlook at forward. But after the Jets’ previously excellent defensive structure collapsed last season, can they make it work in their own zone after losing half of their top-six defenders?

To find out, let’s look at what went wrong last season compared to their 2017-18 season, and the league average from 2018-19.

Compared to 2017-18, last season the Jets took a hit across the board in factors that influence the quality of shots a goaltender is facing. The increased difficulty in his job was a big reason why Connor Hellebuyck saw his save percentage drop to .913 from .924 year-over-year.

Not to absolve him of all blame for that — there were certainly times last season where he struggled to give the Jets the consistent performance he did the year prior — but confidence can be broken by a situation as much as it can by poor performance.

When looking at this data, it’s important to note that over the past three seasons, the NHL has been shifting to a more offensive style of game, and each year across the league there are more passes to the slot, more shots from there or even closer in the high-danger area and more attacks coming off the rush.

When looking at this data, it’s important to note that over the past three seasons, the NHL has been shifting to a more offensive style of game, and each year across the league there are more passes to the slot, more shots from there or even closer in the high-danger area and more attacks coming off the rush. But even accounting for that, where the Jets ranked last season as a defensive team fell steeply.

It may sound crazy considering the ability the Jets have to score goals, but they are a bit of a low-event team in quality chances when they’re at their best. They limit the overall chances both for and against, and rely on players who are able to consistently produce offence without having to get to the most dangerous areas on the ice.

Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Patrik Laine have all demonstrated a clear ability to score and create scoring plays without generating a high volume of chances, which is a unique benefit the Jets have over opponents. It allows them to continue scoring at a high rate, even if their opponents are playing excellent defence in the dangerous areas. They’re tougher to shut down.

That allows the Jets to play a relatively conservative style and limit chances against — except it didn’t work last season. While they were a top-five defensive team in 2017-18, they were in the bottom third of the league in 2018-19, despite continuing to be one of the better teams in the league at stopping passes to the slot in their own zone.

While the average NHL team was giving up an extra 0.5 shots on net from the slot every 60 minutes of five-on-five hockey, Hellebuyck was seeing almost four more. Over the course of the season, the Jets allowed the third-fewest shots from the slot in 2017-18, with just 702 at even-strength, which ballooned to 953 last season, ranked 26th.

The one area where the Jets seemed to be able to stem the bleeding on the defensive side last season was the Trouba-Morrissey pairing, which took the heavy matchups and managed to play solid shutdown defence. That’s no longer an option.

The one area where the Jets seemed to be able to stem the bleeding on the defensive side last season was the Trouba-Morrissey pairing, which took the heavy matchups and managed to play solid shutdown defence. That’s no longer an option. Unless head coach Paul Maurice has some brilliant new defensive schemes to deploy this year, what can be expected of the Jets’ new group on defence compared to the one that was? Let’s compare some statistics that drive those results.

A disclaimer on this comparison: Sami Niku’s numbers are within a relatively small sample size and Pionk’s are from his play on a different team with a different structure. It’s also noteworthy that Tucker Poolman didn’t play in the NHL last season, so there isn’t enough to draw from to include him in the analysis.

Interestingly, the three defencemen the Jets lost in the off-season ranked first, second and third on the team in completed outlet passes per 20 minutes played at even-strength, so there could be a bit of a hit taken to Winnipeg’s transition game if the replacements don’t step up.

Trouba and Chiarot also led the Jets in blocked shots, ranked second and third in winning contested puck battles, and Myers was the most effective pass blocker in the neutral zone, while leading the team in carry-outs by defencemen.

Niku as a whole was extremely tentative without the puck, though he did a decent job of standing up at the blue line and denying entries. He is the key to the Jets having a respectable defensive core this season, but he’ll need to show a lot more than he has in the NHL to this point.

Pionk, meanwhile, has excellent numbers in zone-entry denials and defensive-zone blocked passes, and his excellent skating makes him a premier carry-out option once he gets the puck. But his aggression worked against him last season with the Rangers, as he posted the second-worst defensive results on the team, though the one person who was considerably worse was his most common defence partner, Marc Staal.

So the question with Pionk is whether an increased role with a partner more suited to his skill set could take advantage of his defensive aggressiveness and transition capabilities. So far in his short career, Pionk looks skilled but unremarkable; it’s certainly possible that a better situation could bring more out of him.

On paper, unless Niku takes several dramatic steps forward, it doesn’t appear that the Jets have the horses to fully replace Trouba.

But this may be an interesting season of theory-crafting for Maurice and his staff, trying to extract optimum performance from a limited group, something he has been able to do many times in his career.

As it stands, the Jets don’t appear to be as strong as they were heading into last season, but that doesn’t spell doom and gloom, especially if the weight of expectations is reduced.

Andrew Berkshire is a hockey writer specializing in data-driven analysis of the game.