Winnipeg reaching Grey Cup means knocking out Calgary

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This article was published 15/10/2019 (2202 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

While the chances of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers ending up first in the Western Division are stuck somewhere between remote and unlikely, they do control whether they will have a home playoff game, and they do have the opportunity to make sure it won’t be Calgary at the top of the heap, yet again.

The Calgary Stampeders have finished first in the Western Division five of the last six years. Subsequently, they’ve been to the Grey Cup four of the last five years. So it’s fair to say, over the last half decade, if the Stampeders won the West, 80 per cent of the time they were representing the West in the Grand National Drunk, and that has gotten old real fast. The last team to win the Grey Cup out of the West, without first winning the division in the regular season, were the Saskatchewan Roughriders in 2013. While it pains me to say, it will most likely be Saskatchewan with the first-round bye and home game in the Western final — it just needs to be someone other than Calgary. They’ve been on top for far too long, and it’s high time the Western Division pecking order is revamped.

Since Saskatchewan and Calgary both have a game in hand, and the Bombers have a final bye-week, the only thing Winnipeg can control is whether they get a home playoff game, but not whether that would come in the form of first or second place.

Saskatchewan has the easiest path to first place in the Western Division. They are at B.C. — with quarterback Mike Reilly done for the season, that’s win number 11 — then they are at Edmonton and then home against Edmonton. Edmonton has nothing to play for, other than making sure that their QB, Trevor Harris, is healthy for when they cross over to the East and play Montreal. Unless the Riders somehow lose two of these three remaining games and Winnipeg wins both games against Calgary, Winnipeg has zero chance at first place, since Saskatchewan owns the tiebreaker against the Bombers. Most likely, the Riders will beat B.C., and at worst, split with Edmonton. That leaves them with 12 wins on the season.

As we know, Calgary plays Winnipeg twice, then they also get the free spot on the Bingo card, as they play B.C., without Reilly, the last week of the regular season. If they win all three games, they wrap up first place, and the first-round bye, because they’ve won the season series with Saskatchewan. So if both the Riders and Stampeders have 13 wins, Calgary ends up in first place yet again, and Winnipeg has to go on the road twice to make it to the Grey Cup. That is not something you want to have to do. Most pundits would guess that Calgary splits with Winnipeg, and beats B.C. That leaves them with 12 wins and a home game no matter what.

So it says here, the best chance the Bombers have of ending their Grey Cup drought, starts and ends with beating Calgary the final two games of the season. If they split with Calgary, Winnipeg most likely starts the playoffs in Calgary and then would have to go on to Saskatchewan. If they lose both to Calgary, they are probably going to Saskatchewan for the Western semifinal. They have to win this first game in Calgary Saturday to give themselves any chance of hosting a playoff game, and therefore a decent chance of representing the West.

For years now, head coach Mike O’Shea has stressed that the next game is always the most important, but this next one has consequences as clear as day. They know they can beat the Stampeders at home, which they’ve already done, but they need this first one in Calgary to set themselves up for the post-season. Calgary has won four of their last five games, are 6-2 at home and have won five of six since starting quarterback Bo-Levi Mitchell returned from injury. It is never easy to win in Calgary, but it will only be harder if it has to happen during the playoffs, instead of during the final weeks of the regular season.

Doug Brown, once a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears weekly in the Free Press.

Twitter: @DougBrown97