Now or never for Champions League

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This article was published 01/08/2020 (2205 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There is a “now or never” feel to the UEFA Champions League.

Like the national divisions of Europe and sports leagues almost everywhere else, club football’s most prestigious competition was halted in March when much of the world went into coronavirus lockdown. Allowing the domestic campaigns to complete before restarting its own schedule, its layoff, at almost five months, would end up being especially long.

But it’s back, now, returning to television sets and streaming services — no in-stadium fans, it goes without saying — next week Friday, first to complete some pesky, unfinished second legs before kicking off a quickfire, single-elimination tournament in Portugal.

Given the format, which will favour the fittest teams and offer the spectre of upset, each of the 12 remaining sides, with the exception of Chelsea, will surely recognize the unique opportunity at hand. Not since the 2004 Final of Porto and Monaco has the Champions League been as reasonably attainable to non-traditional contenders. A Leipzig-Napoli finale is possible; ditto a Lyon-Atalanta conclusion.

Chelsea are the really the only ones out of the running, what with a 3-0 aggregate deficit ahead of their return match at Bayern Munich.

Bayern, who last lifted the European Cup in 2013 — and 2001 before that, and 1976 before that—are the continent’s form club since the season restarted. In fact, they’re unbeaten in the whole of 2020, winning 24 of 25 matches, the lone blip coming in the form of a scoreless draw with Leipzig back in February. If the Champions League is any team’s to lose, it’s Bayern’s. It would also complete a memorable treble. And the presence of star Canadian left-back Alphonso Davies gives this country a natural rooting interest.

But the “now or never” quality of the Lisbon mini-tournament is particularly real for Manchester City. Indeed, it may well be their battle cry.

Despite a second-place finish in the Premier League, City’s 81 points, which left them 18 back of Liverpool, was their second-lowest tally of manager Pep Guardiola’s tenure. Their nine losses were the most. A makeshift defense has left them vulnerable all season, and although they lead Real Madrid on aggregate their 2-1 advantage might not be enough to hold off the Spanish champions.

Then there is the matter of Financial Fair Play regulations — an alleged breach that was initially thrown out by the Court of Arbitration for Sport a few weeks ago but that simply won’t go away.

On Thursday, German outlet Der Spiegel published a number of leaked emails that were not included in the evidence against Manchester City at the CAS appeal. They appear to show club sponsor Etihad Airways receiving a substantial kickback on a sponsorship — an illegal inflation of club income that would make them ineligible for UEFA competition. City were initially handed a two-year UEFA ban, although the penalty was overturned at the Swiss court. It almost certainly wasn’t the final ruling in this question.

What’s plainly evident — and has been ever since the initial, big-money takeover by companies owned by the Abu Dhabi royal family in 2008 — is that City are artificially rich, a relatively small club embellished by inorganic revenue. The bubble was always going to burst, even if it hasn’t just yet.

Which is why, if they can see off Real Madrid, City will have a one-off showdown with either Lyon or Juventus, after which would come Napoli, Barcelona or Bayern Munich and an unprecedented opportunity to advance to a Champions League Final in two quick strokes. They may continue to avoid Financial Fair Play sanctions for the time being, but a comprehensive squad rebuild awaits in any event.

In a similar vein, Paris Saint-Germain will be looking at the next month as their best chance of finally making a breakthrough in Europe. Money is no issue in the French capital, but despite their expensive, all-star squad, PSG have tended to capitulate at key moments. But they can now progress to a semi-final with a single victory against Atalanta, the unlikely Italian stylists, although they’ll have to do so without the injured Kylian Mbappe.

Atalanta, conversely, can still finish second in Serie A and will see PSG as a potentially out-of-rhythm opponent, there for the taking. Leipzig or Atletico Madrid would follow in the semi-finals, and they’d fancy themselves against either. Atletico, for their parts, have pounded on the door for years and lost Champions League Finals to Real Madrid in 2014 and 2016.

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On the other side of the draw, Napoli could well take advantage of a wobbly Barcelona team, although Bayern would be their next assignment. Juventus, finally, are 1-0 down to Lyon going into the rematch in Turin. Could Cristiano Ronaldo win the Champions League with three different clubs? He needs only four wins to do so.

At the very least, one of Leipzig, Atletico, Atalanta and PSG will contest the Champions League Final. Each would be a first-time winner. So the stage is already partly set for a Final that would be unusual in any season. The circumstances of this one promise to make it even more extraordinary. It’s now or never.

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Twitter @JerradPeters