A big, bold leap for the NDP from the Titanic

Opinion

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This article was published 04/09/2024 (395 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the NDP are headed for a thrashing in the next federal election — and polls suggest they might just be — then they have decided to go out with an enormous bang.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced Wednesday he has ended the controversial supply and confidence agreement with the federal Liberal government. In a video statement, Singh argued the Liberals are unworthy of further support, and only the NDP can stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s planned war of attrition on federal programs.

“The fact is, the Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people,” Singh said in the video. “They cannot be change, they cannot restore the hope, they cannot stop the Conservatives. But we can.”

Political history would suggest a statement like that — delivered at this moment in political history — is heavy on risk and light on reward. Singh is clearly convinced his party is getting dragged down by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.

He is not wrong.

To date, the agreement has provided the most rewards to the Liberals, who have remained in power despite the fact Canadians are desperate to vote them out.

Meanwhile, slightly fewer Canadians support Singh now than they did in 2022 when he signed his deal with parliament’s red devils. That result alone suggests the NDP have received the short end of the deal.

That is not to say the agreement didn’t produce some positives. NDP input helped bring in a national dental care program for seniors, rental supplements for low-income tenants, a temporary increase in the GST rebate and a national housing accelerator fund that will help build more than 750,000 new homes across the country.

Case-by-case support

Unfortunately, if Canadians support these things they are not paying any tribute to the NDP. That makes the decision to rip up the deal with a governing party that has almost no political future seem like a no-brainer.

Put another way: you may have fought valiantly to keep the Titanic afloat but once it hits the iceberg, why would you agree to be chained to the bulkhead?

It should be noted Singh is not saying he will vote against the Liberals at the first possible opportunity. Instead, the NDP will assess support for the government on a case-by-case basis. That would suggest that, even without the agreement in place, Singh will continue to look for concessions.

Singh will also look to seize the traditional opportunity that is created for the NDP any time the Liberals blow themselves up.

In 2006, when the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives defeated the scandal-plagued, Paul Martin-led Liberals, the NDP under Jack Layton won 29 seats, a gain of 10. In the 2008 election, the Liberals under Stéphane Dion lost more ground and Layton won 37 seats.

These two elections were just a prelude to the real breakthrough in the 2011 election, when the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff came completely undone, winning just 34 seats. On the strength of an unprecedented showing in Quebec, Layton won a remarkable 103 seats, a gain of 66, and served as the official opposition for the first time in its history.

After divorcing the Liberals, can Singh manoeuvre his party into a position to gain from Trudeau’s misfortune? It’s still a long shot but he’s clearly going to give it a go.

As for the poll-leading Conservatives, there are actually very few rewards coming from Singh’s decision.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has benefited from the fact the two parties it must defeat have been in league with each other. Now that the NDP is charting its own political course, the Tories will face a true, two-front war.

If there is some hope for the NDP, and a more complicated road ahead for the Tories, what of the Liberals?

The agreement with the NDP was not only propping up the Liberal government, it was providing cover for Trudeau. With no threat of an early election, Trudeau could soothe frayed caucus nerves with the expectation that Poilievre would eventually make some sort of major gaffe that would allow the Grits to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

The awful truth for the PM is Poilievre makes gaffes all the time and it hasn’t done anything to make Trudeau seem more politically attractive. Absent of a deal with the NDP, Trudeau is more vulnerable than ever.

The road ahead for the NDP is still rife with risk.

Poilievre has worked diligently to create a hyperpartisan political environment rife with toxic rhetoric and misinformation. It may be hard for Singh’s main message—that it’s time to vote for a government that will serve ordinary Canadians—to gain traction in that kind of political discourse.

Singh had no choice but to ditch Trudeau and push all of his party’s capital into the middle of this political poker game.

And before his political enemies write Singh off, they should remember that in poker, as in politics, the most dangerous players are often those who have nothing to lose.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com