More Liberals bow out as Trudeau clings to sinking ship

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 17/10/2024 (354 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s not unusual for politicians to flee a sinking ship when they know their government is going down. It’s a normal part of the political process and it’s happening right now with the federal Liberal party.

Four more cabinet ministers have told Prime Minister Justin Trudeau they will not seek re-election when Canadians go to the polls at some point between now and October 2025, the deadline for the next federal election.

The four ministers who are bowing out are: Filomena Tassi, the minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, National Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau, Sports Minister Carla Qualtrough and Northern Affairs Minister Dan Vandal, who represents Saint Boniface-Saint Vital.

Cabinet ministers Seamus O’Regan and Pablo Rodriguez announced earlier this year they would not seek re-election.

Some reports say there are 24 Liberal caucus members who do not intend to seek re-election. It’s no big surprise, considering the Liberals are facing near-certain defeat.

The Liberals’ freefall in public opinion polls began in the summer of 2023 and they have never recovered. They are about 20 percentage points behind the Conservative Party of Canada in polling, a little worse from where they were four months ago (18 percentage points behind).

According to the most recent 338Canada data (a compilation of the country’s top polling results), that would translate into 222 seats for the Conservatives and 57 seats for the Liberals if an election were held today.

The Liberals have been trailing at that level for far too long (well over a year) to close that gap. Barring some catastrophic development for the Conservatives, there’s virtually no way the Liberals can reverse that trend.

That includes dumping Trudeau as leader. There’s still a movement within the Liberal party, including among some caucus members, to oust Trudeau as a way of turning their political fortunes around. Unfortunately for them, it’s a pointless exercise.

Canadians have made up their minds that it’s time for a change in government, regardless of who leads the Liberal party. Replacing Trudeau wouldn’t work any better than it did for the Tories in 1993, when former prime minister Brian Mulroney stepped down after his government began to unravel. The party replaced him with then-federal cabinet minister Kim Campbell and the Tories were destroyed at the ballot box later that year, winning only two seats in the Oct. 25, 1993 election.

It’s unlikely the Liberals are facing that kind of existential threat (part of the reason the Tories only won two seats in 1993 is because of the rise of the Reform Party at the time, which won 52 seats). However, the time-for-a-change dynamic — which took a foothold over a year ago — is far too strong to overcome, regardless of who the Liberal leader is.

That’s pretty clear to the cabinet ministers (and perhaps as many as two dozen MPs) who are not expected to seek re-election. They have weighed their options and decided that returning to the opposition benches is not in the cards for them.

There will be more, some of whom will quit for the same reason. Others may have decided to retire from politics regardless of the Liberal party’s fate in the next election. Still, when you see this many MPs jumping ship as an election nears, it usually means the writing is on the wall.

The Liberals may have had a chance to turn things around had they replaced Trudeau two years ago and given a new leader enough time to re-brand the party. Even then, it would have been an uphill battle.

The party and its leader have been embroiled in too many ethical breaches (from which they never recovered) and continue to be poor stewards of the public treasury — by running chronic deficits and racking up record debt — to convince Canadians they should remain in office.

It’s difficult for any government to stay in power after nearly a decade in office, much less one with as many black marks on its record as the Liberal party.

It’s not that Canadians are necessarily eager to vote the Conservatives and their far-right leader Pierre Poilievre into government. People don’t usually vote in opposition parties, they kick out incumbents. And that’s about to happen no matter who the Liberal leader is.

Just ask the cabinet ministers who are jumping ship.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

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Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.