Samberg extension the multimillion dollar question

Can Dylan Samberg and the Winnipeg Jets finally find the sweet spot?

That’s the multimillion-dollar question left to be answered during the next day or so — even if the use of “finally” could be considered a slight exaggeration — with an arbitration hearing looming in Toronto on Wednesday.

The date presents more than a soft deadline, but less than an absolute of the future for the player with the Jets’ franchise.

As negotiations continue between the player chosen in the second round of the 2017 NHL draft by the Jets, it’s important to provide some additional context about what is actually at stake here.

There’s little doubt that the preferred outcome for both sides is to get a long-term deal done.

At 26 years old, Samberg is coming off the best season of his NHL career.

Promoted to regular top-four minutes for the first time with the Jets, Samberg flourished, providing the type of shutdown defending that every team is looking for while rounding out his offensive game.

By posting career highs in goals (six) and points (20), Samberg moved the goal posts when looking to establish his long-term value.

That his increase in traditional stats came in a season where he missed 22 games with a broken foot is an indicator Samberg still might be just scratching the surface.

Dating back to his time with the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs of the NCAA, head coach Scott Sandelin mentioned Samberg had some untapped offensive potential that was bubbling at the surface.

No, he’s never going to deliver the type of season Jacob Trouba had in 2018-19 (eight goals, 50 points in 82 games) to help him break the bank with the New York Rangers, but Samberg showed that he’s more than just a defensive stalwart on the second pairing with Neal Pionk.

His increase in traditional stats came in a season where he missed 22 games with a broken foot is an indicator Samberg still might be just scratching the surface.

Since Jets head coach Scott Arniel wants his defencemen to join the offensive attack and join the rush when the time is right, adding the offensive element was important for Samberg.

He’s got a sneaky good shot and his mobility allows him to be involved in the second wave from the back end.

But the bulk of his value will continue to come with his play away from the puck, which is part of the reason he only had offensive zone starts in 41.4 per cent of his shifts.

The Jets still managed to outscore opponents 57-36 (plus-21) at five-on-five when Samberg was on the ice (61.4 goals for percentage) — which means Winnipeg routinely controlled play when he was out there, something that was reinforced by the 473 scoring chances for and 429 scoring chances against, as calculated by the folks at Natural Stat Trick.

Samberg saw a sharp uptick in ice time last season as he moved into the role previously held by Brenden Dillon, who left in free agency to join the New Jersey Devils.

By the time the regular season had concluded, Samberg was averaging just north of 21 minutes per game — which was up five-and-a-half minutes from the previous season when he provided rock-solid play on the third pair mostly with Nate Schmidt.

Going into last off-season, the Jets fully believed that Samberg was ready for more responsibility, but it was incumbent on him to show he was up for the challenge.

It turns out that Samberg passed the test with flying colours and a strong argument can be made that only Josh Morrissey had a better season on the back end than he did.

Going into last off-season, the Jets fully believed that Samberg was ready for more responsibility.

This was another step towards Samberg growing into a foundational pillar on a team whose window to win widens if/when the Hermantown, Minn., product becomes the latest homegrown talent to commit.

For those keeping track at home, Morrissey finished fourth in Norris Trophy balloting and has grown into one of the best D-men in the entire NHL, so that’s great company to be in.

It also strengthens Samberg’s bargaining position, as does the fact he could be left with a one-year award and walk straight to unrestricted free agency if an arbitration hearing actually occurs.

To be clear, going to arbitration doesn’t mean the Jets and Samberg couldn’t find common ground on a long-term extension at some point before July 1 of 2026. An extension could be signed on Jan. 1, 2026, under the terms of the current collective bargaining agreement, but that process becomes increasingly difficult.

As much as both sides say it’s not personal and it’s just business, the words spoken in arbitration often have a lingering effect and it’s difficult for hard feelings not to seep into the equation.

Much like we just saw with Nikolaj Ehlers, when a player gets that close to unrestricted free agency for the first time in their career, waiting to see what else is out there brings with it a lot of appeal.

This isn’t to suggest for one second that Samberg already has one foot out the door either.

One can’t ignore the fact that Samberg’s stock is on the rise, so his value on the open market would be further enhanced next summer if his progression continues — provided he doesn’t ink a long-term deal now.

On Monday morning, insider Elliotte Friedman reported that the arbitration filing by the Jets is US$2.5 million, while Samberg is seeking US$6 million.

It’s important to remember that the filings on both sides are merely part of the negotiating process and don’t necessarily represent the distance the two sides must bridge to get a deal done.

In NHL arbitration cases, the person overseeing the hearing doesn’t necessarily choose one side or the other — which is probably why the gulf is as wide as it looks on paper.

There aren’t a ton of comparables when it comes to elite shutdown defencemen, though the gold standard is Carolina Hurricanes blue-liner Jaccob Slavin.

The Jets clearly value the player (Samberg’s) grown into and feel he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet.

Slavin, who was a force at the 4 Nations Face-Off, is about to begin an eight-year deal that carries an average annual value (AAV) of US$6.396 million that pays him until he’s 39.

Samberg needs to stack multiple seasons to truly move himself into the conversation with Slavin, but his hockey sense, ability to kill plays and fearless shot-blocking ability are among the things that will earn him a significant raise from the US$1.4 million AAV he had during the past two seasons.

Since the Jets already got deals done with Gabe Vilardi and Morgan Barron before their arbitration cases were heard, it stands to reason they will still do everything in their collective power to do the same with Samberg.

The Jets clearly value the player he’s grown into and feel he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet.

At the same time, the clock is ticking and obviously some critical work needs to be done in order to get to a term and dollar value that both sides are comfortable with.

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X and Bluesky: @WiebesWorld