Pallister in a hurry to get to an election

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 12/06/2019 (2693 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Tuesday, Sept. 10, it is. After a deluge of news releases and announcements, the Progressive Conservatives kept their promise and initiated a self-imposed communications blackout on Wednesday, bringing to an end one of the busiest weeks in the history of this Manitoba government.

On average, the province puts out 40 to 50 news releases a month, with a gap between the busiest months (more than 70) and the least busy (about 30). In May, when the province was clearly — but unofficially — gearing up for a blackout, 79 news releases were issued. That pace was exceeded this month.

In 11 days of June, the PC government issued 45 news releases, including 22 this week, in just three days. That is a government in a hurry to get to an election.

Now that the blackout is in place — a device to stop governing parties from using taxpayer resources to promote re-election bids — we can see with near certainty the date of the next election: the second Tuesday in September.

Why Sept. 10?

First, because it is a Tuesday, and elections in Manitoba, by law, must be held on Tuesdays.

Second, because the second Tuesday in September is exactly 90 days from June 12 — and the first Tuesday that comes after the Pallister government has fulfilled its 90-day blackout.

Finally, because it doesn’t directly conflict with either the Labour Day long weekend or the first day of school (Sept. 3 for most Manitoba school divisions) — calendar events governments typically avoid when it comes to election scheduling.

Premier Brian Pallister has shown little concern for the fact he is going in about a year earlier than required under the fixed-date election law. A campaign in August with an election in early September is a strategy that could be effective for an incumbent government, particularly since it’s unlikely to drive higher voter turnout.

When turnout surges, you can bet change is in the air.

It won’t be the slam-dunk the Tories enjoyed in 2016, when they faced a badly damaged NDP and a dysfunctional Manitoba Liberal Party.

The Tories were well-funded, well-organized and cruised to the largest majority in the province’s history. The Tories are still well-funded and well-organized, more so than any other party.

Even so, the Tories have a record to defend in the next election and, like all governments, there are good and bad parts.

Pallister has nudged the province toward a more stable fiscal position and cut the PST. But he hasn’t balanced the budget and is waging a war of attrition with public-sector unions.

It is a rare for such unions, on their own, to change the course of any election. This time around, however, labour organizations that represent nurses, teachers and general government workers are highly motivated to stir up trouble for the Tories. If not a determining factor, at the very least, it’s a net negative for Pallister and his party in the next election.

And what of the opposition? Right now, the NDP and Liberals are still weak and struggling, but they will likely be stronger than they were in 2016. Former premier Greg Selinger is gone from the NDP ranks, as are a number of veteran MLAs from mostly safe NDP seats. Not having candidates such as Andrew Swan (Minto), Rob Altemeyer (Wolseley) and Flor Marcelino (Logan) means the NDP have to rebuild riding associations around new, and likely less-experienced contenders.

On the other hand, shedding veterans — some of whom played a direct role in the controversial bid by five cabinet ministers to unseat Selinger — means the NDP is putting more distance between the party as it exists now and the era when infighting and fiscal incompetence ruled the day.

The X-factor will be NDP Leader Wab Kinew.

Are voters ready to fully embrace Kinew’s assertion that his troubled past, which includes stayed charges of domestic abuse, is behind him? Manitoba voters have never faced a decision like this, and it will be hard to predict the relative strength or weakness of his personal brand.

A similar veil of uncertainty surrounds Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont.

The 2016 election was a tragedy for the Liberals, as then-leader Rana Bokhari entered with a rare opportunity to make major inroads. The polite term for what happened is “under-performed;” in fact, her campaign was a pratfall, wrapped in a pitfall and punctuated by nonsense.

Lamont appears poised for a better performance — but by how much remains to be seen. He is already losing one of his three MLAs, as Judy Klassen (Keewatinook) has decided to take a run at federal politics, leaving the Grits in a weakened position.

Of course, there is always a chance Pallister, still dogged by a controversial trip to France for D-Day anniversary celebrations in which he skipped the biggest events, will defer a provincial election to 2020.

For now, he looks poised to unleash an election on Tuesday, Sept. 10. Unless he doesn’t.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca