Carney’s future rests on handling tariffs

Opinion

The federal Liberal party gave Mark Carney a resounding mandate Sunday.

Now, the former central banker will have to decide when to call a general election after he is sworn in as prime minister, likely in the coming days.

Carney will also have to figure how to deal with the biggest issue facing Canada: crippling tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, as well as the president’s musings about making Canada a 51st state.

Carney received 86 per cent of the vote in the Liberal leadership race, a massive majority that eclipsed even outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s majority of just over 80 per cent when he won the Liberal leadership in 2013.

Carney does not have a seat in the House of Commons. Consequently, he is expected to call a snap election soon after he is sworn in as prime minister by Governor General Mary Simon. An election could be called before Parliament is scheduled to resume sitting on March 24.

The timing of a spring vote is favourable to the Liberal party, which is hoping to build on an unexpected surge in popularity since Trump was sworn in as president in January. His attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty have triggered a wave of patriotism across the country that has significantly altered Canada’s political landscape.

That shift appears to have benefited the Liberals more than the Conservatives, whose leader Pierre Poilievre has been slow to pivot effectively to the tariff issue and is struggling with what some observers call his Trump-like style of politics.

The Liberals were 20-plus points behind the Conservatives at the beginning of the year. However, that gap has shrunk to single digits over the past several weeks. Some polls have the two parties neck-and-neck while a recent EKOs poll put the Liberals ahead by five percentage points.

All of which means the upcoming federal election will likely be a competitive one. And the central issue is expected to be who can best protect Canada against Trump and his tariffs.

For Carney, that means trying to convince Canadians that he has the life and professional experience to rise to the challenge, even though he has never held elected office in his life. He will likely benefit from the recent mood shift among voters, who will probably be more concerned with the U.S. trade war than the Liberal party’s nine years in office.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

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Poilievre will try to remind voters of that record, including the housing crisis and affordability issues many Canadians still struggle with.

But that won’t be easy to do in a political climate that is now dominated by the existential threat posed by Trump and the economic ramifications of a prolonged trade war.

If the 25 per cent tariff is applied on April 2 as planned by the U.S. president, it would likely occur in the middle of a federal election. If Carney were to call an election next week, the campaign would last until at least the end of April, depending on the length of the writ period.

That would likely make tariffs an even higher priority for voters, potentially overshadowing other issues that normally resonate with Canadians during elections such as climate change, taxes, health care and social programs.

Tariffs and how best to handle Trump will almost certainly be the ballot box question. Carney, Poilievre and Canada’s other political leaders will have to make that the central theme of their campaigns if they want to succeed in the next election.