Carney-led Liberals face impossibly long odds, but in politics — and sports — sometimes the underdog prevails

Opinion

By happy coincidence, the Liberal Party of Canada chose Mark Carney as its new leader just two days after the National Hockey League staged its annual trade deadline.

A coincidence because, in essence, both events serve a very similar purpose.

The trade deadline is an opportunity for teams vying to win the Stanley Cup to add skills and change the chemistry of their rosters: teams that need more toughness add thumpers; teams that need more scoring add offensively skilled players; teams that need more heart add “glue” guys, the players long on character who bring the team together for a common cause.

The Liberal leadership race had very similar goals.

In a lightning-quick campaign that unfolded in just eight weeks, the Liberals sought a new leader to change the chemistry of their party, to become more formidable in battle with the Conservatives and their pugnacious leader Pierre Poilievre, and to shift their game plan from chronic defence to a more potent offence.

Just as it’s way too early to tell if the NHL teams that changed their rosters will find greater success, it remains to be seen whether putting Carney at the helm of the Liberal party will sufficiently change fortunes. One thing is clear, however; late roster or leader changes rarely produce the desired results.

In the last two decades of professional hockey, only one player moved at the deadline — Ryan O’Reilly, traded in 2019 from Buffalo to the Stanley Cup-winning St. Louis Blues — has won the Conn Smythe trophy as the playoff MVP.

In politics, it’s virtually impossible to find any example of a leader coming in right before an election who was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

And therein lies the rub for Carney. For the Liberal party to remain viable, Carney must perform at an MVP-like level because the team he has just joined is a shadow of its former self.

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Thanks to the stubbornness of now-former leader Justin Trudeau, who refused to step down in the face of wholesale rejection by the Canadian public, this Liberal party is woefully unprepared to fight the next election.

Thanks to declining popular support and three dozen retirements by members of the Liberal caucus, the Grits are feverishly searching for new candidates. As of late February, there were 151 nominated candidates on the Liberals’ website, less than half of the 338 candidates needed to field a full slate. The Tories also have work to do to fill every riding, but already have 221 nominated candidates.

Why is that important?

Although strategy is devised at the very top of the party structure, the grunt work needed to win an election — identifying potential voters and getting them to the polls — always falls on the candidates.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, a lot of capable, battle-hardened MPs decided to flee what they thought was a sinking ship. Recruiting a new generation of electable candidates will be one of Carney’s greatest challenges.

The new leader and his team must also devise an impactful campaign in a severely limited amount of time.

One thing is certain: over the next few weeks, as Carney makes the transition from candidate to leader, Canadians will be looking at him with a much more critical eye.

Parliament is expected to be recalled from prorogation March 24 but there is rampant speculation that Carney, hoping to capitalize on the recent surge in public support for the Liberals, may call a snap election as early as next week.

You can bet that the planks of the yet-to-be-unveiled Liberal campaign will ultimately fall in lock-step with the priorities that Carney outlined in his leadership campaign, getting rid of the consumer carbon tax, eliminating changes to capital gains tax rates and running a leaner and more efficient government with a focus on eliminating the deficit.

The Liberals will also try to position Carney as the best possible person to push back against tariffs and vague threats of annexation by U.S. President Donald Trump. Opinion polls show that when it comes to sparring with Trump, Carney is preferred over Poilievre.

The Liberals are not without reason to hope that, notwithstanding the history of politics (and professional hockey), Carney can somehow snatch some sort of victory from the jaws of what seemed like certain defeat just a few months ago. Opinion polls continue to show the Liberals have eaten significantly into the Conservative lead in popular support, a trend that will no doubt buoy the spirits of new candidates and campaign volunteers.

It’s important to underline that the melodrama that started with Trudeau’s resignation and culminated with Carney’s ascension does not change the fact the Liberals have only a sliver of a chance of denying the Conservatives a majority in the next election. And they have only a sliver of a sliver of a chance of actually winning some sort of mandate.

One thing is certain: over the next few weeks, as Carney makes the transition from candidate to leader, Canadians will be looking at him with a much more critical eye.

If they like what they see, voters could do something remarkable, even unprecedented.

If, however, they see Carney as a merely an echo of Trudeau, then his leadership will become just another in a long list of late roster changes that failed to produce a championship.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.