‘Perfect example of flattening curve’

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/04/2020 (2143 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The daily count of new novel coronavirus cases hasn’t surpassed double digits in more than a week — a pattern one public health expert predicts could soon prompt a roller-coaster of social distancing policies.

No new COVID-19 cases in Manitoba were announced Sunday, marking the third time in seven days that the province had no new numbers to report. The daily average of cases announced last week was just under 2.

“Manitoba is the perfect example of what flattening the curve looks like,” said Dr. Joss Reimer, a public health physician at the University of Manitoba.

“We got a little bit more warning than many parts of Canada about what was coming. We had the opportunity to change our approach sooner than other places did.”

Eight people are currently in hospital, including five in intensive care. There are 105 active cases and 143 people have recovered from the virus. Five people have died.

Chief public health officer Dr. Brent Roussin has said Manitobans should remain “cautiously optimistic” about the low figures since the province is six weeks behind other hard-hit provinces. He has yet to hint at a timeline for when policies might be eased, saying only that the virus’s basic reproductive number — which is currently esimated at around 2.5 or 2.6 — needs to decrease below one before changes are made.

The province said 570 tests had been performed at Cadham Provincial Lab on Saturday, raising the number of tests conducted since early February to 19,752. In neighbouring provinces, Saskatchewan (315 current cases) has done nearly 24,000 tests while Ontario (10,578 current cases) has recorded upwards of 150,000.

Reimer noted Manitoba’s testing numbers aren’t as high as what would be ideal, but preliminary figures show Manitoba’s tally fares well, per capita, in comparison to other jurisdictions.

Early warnings aside, she said the province has benefitted from tight travel restrictions and citizens abiding by social distancing measures — and it’ll be key for those precautions to remain in place while the province ensures the health-care system is ready to handle a slow rollback of measures with personal protective equipment, space and a healthy workforce.

“If we do start to lessen things, it’s not that the risk is over; we’re trying to balance all of those risks and benefits. Not everything’s going to return to normal; we’re still going to be asking people to be really conscious of physical distancing, of handwashing and considering wearing masks.”– Dr. Joss Reimer

While unable to predict the future, she said Manitobans should expect some “back and forth” of tightened and loosened distancing policies as officials navigate life without a vaccine while they balance the public’s physical and mental health, and the economy.

“If we do start to lessen things, it’s not that the risk is over; we’re trying to balance all of those risks and benefits,” Reimer said, adding that, “not everything’s going to return to normal; we’re still going to be asking people to be really conscious of physical distancing, of handwashing and considering wearing masks.”

Roussin has made clear many times, most recently as Saturday’s briefing — no briefing was held Sunday — a mask protects others, not the wearer, and shouldn’t be seen as a tool for lessening compliance with stay-at-home orders.

Meantime, doctors are urging patients to continue to seek care for non-virus-related issues. They say they’re concerned about a drop in the number of patients who seek help for other ailments, and fear people are putting their health on hold during the pandemic.

“A lot of people think because of COVID-19, doctors are too busy to help with other medical concerns,” said Dr. Fourie Smith, a Winnipeg family physician and president of Doctors Manitoba. “That’s not the case. Doctors are not only available, they’re ready to help, in new ways.”

Doctors Manitoba recently surveyed more than 700 physicians and almost all of them reported a “concerning drop” in the number of people visiting their doctors to discuss their medical problems.

The group says it’s important for doctors to monitor chronic diseases and address new health concerns.

Many physicians are using phone or video appointments. If an in-person visit is needed, clinics are screening patients, regularly disinfecting common spaces and adhering to physical distancing measures.

“Your doctor can help you decide if you should seek care now, or wait,” Smith said.

maggie.macintosh@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @macintoshmaggie