Small fixes should lead to big results for the Jets

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/09/2017 (2913 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In my column last week, I suggested the Winnipeg Jets will make the National Hockey League playoffs this season and today I’m still going to present my case — despite their lacklustre start to the pre-season.

Icing powerful lineups against the Minnesota Wild and Edmonton Oilers scrubs, the Jets lost both games — 3-2 in a shootout to Minnesota and 4-1 to Edmonton.

I don’t put much stock into early exhibition games, so I’ll move forward by mostly ignoring those contests, assess this team’s roster and make the argument for it making the post-season party this year.

Goaltending

Steve Mason pushes Michael Hutchinson into a minor-league role (if he stays in the organization), which should vastly improve the overall numbers.

Mason started his NHL career by winning the Calder Trophy with the Columbus Blue Jackets, dropped off a cliff for four years and was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers.

After three good years his save percentage dipped to .908 last season (his first three years were .917, .928, .918, which is average to above average).

I asked analytical-oriented Flyers blogger Matt Bernot why he felt Mason fell off so much last year.

“Steve Mason had a solid reign as the Philly starter, however last season he was maligned by injuries and could never get into a rhythm,” Bernot explained. “His first couple of seasons allowed him to thrive because he was kept on a schedule. Assuming he can stay healthy and keep a regular, planned workload, he should be able to return to league-average form. On the downside, if his knees can’t hold the workload, he might become an albatross contract.”

While Mason has had meniscus removed from both knees, he and the Jets are good with it. I’m expecting he provides at least league-average goaltending.

Also, I’m still a believer in Connor Hellebuyck: he’s had too much success at lower levels (and at times with the Jets) to not believe he can do it here consistently.

Surely at least one of these two will be at their best on any given night, and having a mentor should be a good thing for Hellebuyck.

Defencemen

With Tyler Myers coming back after an 11-game season and looking ready, this group should be much improved over last year. I’m also looking for a bit of a comeback year from Toby Enstrom, despite his age and injuries. Newcomer Dmitri Kulikov needs to shake off his injury-riddled year in Buffalo and get back to his best. I think he’ll be fine as a third-pairing D-man.

Jacob Trouba is the team’s best rearguard and his play should gallop forward — he’s closing in fast on elite status. Dustin Byfuglien will be the force we expect, driving the play forward more than not and making sure the opposition has its heads up. Josh Morrissey had an excellent rookie campaign and I’m looking forward to the smart, multi-talented defenceman continuing to grow his game.

Ben Chiarot is trying to hang on to the seventh spot with Tucker Poolman looking strong and ready to challenge.

This group should be able to handle a couple of injuries and still remain at a decent level of play this year.

Forwards

Head coach Paul Maurice showcased one of the best lines in the NHL (on paper) during the first two games, with Patrick Laine and Blake Wheeler joining centre Mark Scheifele. Bryan Little between wingers Mathieu Perreault and Nikolaj Ehlers followed.

Their chemistry was noticeably absent, but that could be something that takes a little more time. We know Maurice can fall back to last year’s successful combinations if needed.

There were times last year this six-pack was almost unstoppable — I expect that to happen more frequently. I’m looking for their shot volume to increase as the young guns mature.

Adam Lowry and Joel Armia seem like locks for the third line, with Kyle Connor possibly joining them. That line lacked a scoring touch last year, and if Connor can figure out how to play with them, good things should happen.

The Jets basically have eight players competing for four remaining regular spots (Connor, Marko Dano, Nic Petan, Andrew Copp, Shawn Matthias, Matt Hendricks, Brendan Lemieux and Jack Roslovic: the last two are long shots).

This is where things get a bit dicey as we await the outcomes of player performances and the final decisions by the coaching staff. Having a significant fourth line that can hold its own driving play at even strength is the way to win in today’s game.

Special teams

I believe the coaching staff will get the right players out there on the power play to get the Jets into the top half of the league. They have the talent to easily be a Top 10 team.

The penalty-killing unit needs to get there as well, but I don’t have as much confidence in it. It’s highly systems driven, with quick, smart players an asset and the goaltender being your best penalty killer. I need to see Maurice’s plan and player selections before going further here.

Coaches

Regular readers know I haven’t liked some of Maurice’s systems and player deployment in the past, but he’s similar to around 20 other coaches in the league — an average NHL coach. They have good and bad traits, but can get a team like this into the playoffs.

Conclusion

Many unknowns can throw a season upside down, but when a highly talented team fixes some key holes in its lineup, it’s time to take a stand.

Next week I’ll dig into some numbers, take a look at how high in the standings the Jets should finish, and which teams will drop down.

Chosen ninth overall by the NHL’s St. Louis Blues and first overall by the WHA’s Houston Aeros in 1977, Scott Campbell has now been drafted by the Winnipeg Free Press to play a new style of game.

Twitter: @NHL_Campbell