Trump’s effect on travel

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/11/2016 (3266 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

With Donald Trump’s victory on November 8, which to the majority of observers came as a surprise, the so-called policies he has hinted at could have significant positive and negative impacts on the tourism sectors of both the United States and Canada.

Almost from the outset of his campaign, Trump criticized U.S. President Barack Obama’s deal to ease trade and visitation regulations with Cuba, which has been at an economic standoff with the U.S. for more than half a century.

While Trump may have criticized the deal, from reports publicized during the election, Trump companies had, through consultants, made contact with Cuban government a number of years ago to explore business opportunities.

Many of the Republican Party’s most vocal supporters against easing any restrictions, particularly in Florida, are the first generation of Cubans who escaped to the U.S. in the early decades of Fidel Castro’s takeover.

Trump’s share of the Latino vote was higher than projected and his narrow win in Florida may have come courtesy of this voter block.

At the same time, the majority of Americans, including younger Cuban Americans, are in favour of opening the borders with Cuba and creating a friendlier relationship.

Since Obama’s first announcement, hundreds of companies have been making early investments in expanding the tourist infrastructure in the Cuba. Cruise ships can now include Cuba in their itineraries and a number of airlines have been given permission to initiate more flights to Cuba.

There is no question that the comparatively lower costs for vacationing in Cuba, versus many other sunspot destinations, for Canadians was going to increase exponentially with this new U.S. attention.

Now, the pressure from businesses on the Trump regime to refrain from meddling in the agreement may be offset by the anti-Cuban traditionalists who helped get him elected.

If the deal dies, Canadians will still represent the largest body of visitors travelling to the country.

Many feel the box of opportunity for American companies has already been opened too wide to close, but if it does get shut down, the completion of at least some of the properties on the books may continue.

Canadians will still be looking at Cuba as their prime winter destination choice and may find even lower prices than other competitors.

Visiting the United States

Tourism is a major economic driver for the U.S. It is estimated the travel industry supports more than 15 million jobs and is in the top 10 employers in most states. Canadians are one of the largest contributors to this sector.

The 21 million visitors who go to the top-15 tourists states drop a massive US$16.3 billion annually. Florida alone gets US$5.3 billion of that from its almost 4 million visitors.

It has become a well-worn fact that the roads, bridges and airports throughout the 50 states are often in a state of disrepair and require multiple billions of dollars to bring them back to standard. Tourism bodies have been decrying this state of affairs for years, with little or no serious attention paid to the worsening problem.

While it is not usually a Republican priority to spend public monies on projects such as this, in his most recent statements, Trump has continued to espouse his commitment to the decidedly more Democratic Party promise of rebuilding the infrastructure of the nation as a top priority.

This would benefit Canadians already travelling to the most popular tourist attractions in the U.S., who find the infrastructure challenges a frustration, if not a detriment to subsequent trips.

At the same time, the rhetoric that came out of Trump’s mouth during the campaign has created a reluctance for some to go south of the border.

It was divisive rhetoric, which most Canadians find abhorrent. And those Canadians whose skin colour does not match that of hateful white supremacists, who actively and openly supported his candidacy, may have shut down their interest permanently.

Travel to Mexico could get cheaper

“We’re going to build a wall and Mexico is going to pay for it.”

So said Trump throughout the campaign. And he also talked about NAFTA and how he was going to rip it up as though it were one only between Mexico and the United States, avoiding any reference to Canada’s role.

There may or may not be economic consequences for Canada with the reopening of the agreement, but for Mexico, all of the scurrilous outbursts by Trump during the campaign led to huge drops in the value of the Mexican Peso in the days after Trump was declared the winner.

Two days after the election, the peso hit a record low of about 20 pesos per one U.S. dollar. It has bounced around since, but clearly this currency may be in turmoil for some time to come.

What does this mean for travellers?

In the short term, it means that what we buy in the country this winter may be less expensive with a lower conversion rate. Package prices are set and will likely not go down quickly, but should this downturn continue into next year, buyers will be able to negotiate better rates, which could lead to lower package prices for next season.

Much will depend on the direction of future talks between the Trump administration and Mexican government, but what we all saw during the election period does not portend well for Mexico.

 

Read Ron’s blog at thattravelguy.ca. Listen to Ron’s latest podcasts via his website, or on demand on iTunes.

pradinukr@shaw.ca