Will Russia invade Ukraine? Only Vladimir Putin knows for sure

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/02/2022 (1355 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

WASHINGTON—Since last weekend, there was a steady hum to the anxious talk about Ukraine: Russia might invade any day, but specifically one day it might invade would be Wednesday, Feb. 16.

So, now that Feb. 16 has come and the invasion has not (yet) happened, where are we? Is Russia edging towards de-escalation or not?

No one really knows except the defiantly unpredictable Russian President Vladimir Putin — and maybe even he doesn’t, given that he is said to often make decisions at the final possible moment.

The guy loves to be the centre of attention, and seems to relish the role of a wild-card international man of mystery. He has not-so-subtly reminded the French that he could rain nuclear bombs down on them, then enigmatically said Russia will proceed “according to the plan,” and then, in virtually the same breath, said he doesn’t want war in Europe. Meanwhile, Ukraine reports being subject to massive co-ordinated cyberattacks suspected of originating in Russia.

And then on Tuesday, Putin claimed he wanted to pursue diplomatic paths, and said some of the 150,000 troops he’s stationed at Ukraine’s borders were being withdrawn.

“That would be good, but we have not yet verified that,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in response. “Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the same thing Wednesday.

Biden’s speech carried a pervasively grim sense of warning: outlining the threats of sanctions and spurning that awaited Putin if he does invade, preparing the American people for the pain imposing such sanctions would bring to them, and arguing for why he thought that would be a price worth paying.

So the crystal ball is caked in mud. You can find some experts sounding the alarm, and others who say the U.S.-stoked fears of an imminent attack are overblown. Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems to have a foot in each of those camps, brushing off panic he fears is being induced by the U.S. approach while also acknowledging an existential threat amassed at his borders.

It is not hard to see that a Russian invasion would be a disaster for Ukraine. Although it has a relatively formidable military, the country is in no position to defend against the amassed strength of the Russian army.

What may be less obvious to casual observers is how painful an invasion would be on a global level. Russia would face a potentially bloody and drawn-out campaign against Ukrainian insurgents while paying a steep economic price at home and finding itself internationally isolated, with China as its only ally — an alliance in which Putin would find himself in the uncomfortable role of junior partner. Europe would suffer economically amid the biggest continental conflict since the Second World War. The U.S. would likely see increases in already steep inflation, particularly in energy costs, and a vivid demonstration of its inability to steer foreign crises to its desired resolutions, even when it rallies its allies into virtual lockstep on its strategy.

This episode may be the clearest test so far of Biden’s vision for U.S. leadership in the emerging world order. He has talked frequently about the battle to “win the 21st century” against rising tide of authoritarianism represented by China, the emergent superpower striding to the centre of world affairs, and Russia, the old superpower grasping to stay there. His proposed solution has been to align the world’s major democratic powers in economic and diplomatic co-operation to marginalize rogue actors.

Biden’s allies have played mostly according to his plan in trying to make sure this new cold war doesn’t go hot in Europe. Some (including Canada) have supplied Ukraine with both moral support and weaponry, and agreed to participate together in co-ordinated sanctions. A parade of leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have jetted into Moscow for high-profile, giant-table negotiations with Putin.

The U.S. has made openness its information strategy — “The truth matters,” Biden said — announcing in real time what it sees Russia doing as a way of denying Putin the element of surprise and pre-empting potential misinformation ploys. The last part is an “innovative and, dare I say, ingenious new strategy,” national security journalist and Russian expert Julia Ioffe recently wrote for Puck. “The Biden administration is using this novel technique to get something not to happen. To do this, they’re trying to ramp up the fear that something will happen.” In Ioffe’s estimation, this strategy is so far looking like a good one.

Yet she, like almost everyone else, concedes that Putin still may well invade, sooner or later. It appears that Russia is trying to get what it wants — decreased prospects of NATO expansion, higher oil and gas revenue, a destabilized Ukraine, more of its military goals on the negotiating table — by threatening war without paying the costs of actually going to war. Yet we are also warned, frequently, that trying to predict what Putin will do according to outwardly visible cost-benefit criteria is a sucker’s game.

Biden has made it clear his country is not going to war. Putin, even while saying he doesn’t want war, has put his soldiers in a position to launch one. Biden has tried to head off a war by putting his cards on the table. Putin has made a career of keeping his cards hidden until he’s ready to play them.

Edward Keenan is the Star’s Washington Bureau chief. He covers U.S. politics and current affairs. Reach him via email: ekeenan@thestar.ca