Trump’s Ukraine peace plan ignites diplomatic flurry but major hurdles lie ahead

LONDON (AP) — The Russia-Ukraine war has seen almost four years of failed peace plans, blueprints and high-level summits. A new U.S. push to end the fighting has set off the latest flurry of diplomacy, with American, European, Russian and Ukrainian officials all trying to shape the outcome of Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.

Tilted heavily toward Russia’s aims, the U.S.-backed proposal presented to Ukraine last week set off alarm bells in Kyiv and other European capitals. Ukraine and its allies offered a set of counterproposals that revamped the plan’s points. Ukrainian and European leaders expressed optimism about the talks’ momentum, but awaited responses from Washington and Moscow that are crucial.

“I think we’re getting very close to a deal,” U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday. He said the proposals had been “fine-tuned” and announced he was sending his envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin next week.

A contentious peace plan

Based on talks between Washington and Moscow, the 28-point plan presented to Ukraine calls on it to cede its entire eastern region of the Donbas to Russia, which invaded its smaller neighbor in February 2022. The plan would put a 600,000-person limit on Ukraine’s military and bar Ukraine or any other new member from NATO. It also would rule out NATO troops in Ukraine and does not commit the U.S. or European nations to Ukraine’s defense if Russia attacks again.

Russia would commit to no more attacks on Ukraine, facing sanctions if it violates that pledge.

Ukraine and its European allies said the plan rewards Russian aggression and scrambled to offer counterproposals aimed at shifting the balance toward Ukraine, such as lifting the cap on Ukraine’s military power, leaving open the question of future NATO membership and postponing discussions of territorial concessions until after a ceasefire.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials met Sunday in Geneva, with both sides calling the talks constructive and promising to produce a revised peace plan.

U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met Russian and Ukrainian officials in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, but Putin’s foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, said the new peace plan was not discussed in detail. He said that while Moscow had seen a copy of the proposals, it had yet to receive the document through official channels.

The fragility of the process was underscored by a leaked transcript of a call in which Witkoff appeared to coach Ushakov on how to win Trump’s support for a peace plan. Moscow denied leaking the conversation, details of which were first published by Bloomberg News.

The White House did not dispute the veracity of the transcript, and Trump described Witkoff’s reported approach to the Russians in the call as “standard” negotiating procedure.

Ukrainian officials said they hoped Zelenskyy would travel to the U.S within days to meet Trump, while the U.S. president said he could eventually meet both Zelenskyy and Putin, but not until more progress has been made.

Bolstering Ukraine’s security

Amid worries in Europe that it is being sidelined in peace plans, allies of Ukraine who have pledged to underwrite and guarantee any ceasefire — the 35-nation Coalition of the Willing — held a video conference Tuesday attended by Zelenskyy and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

About 20 countries in the coalition have agreed to join a post-ceasefire “reassurance force” for Ukraine. The plan foresees European allies training Ukrainian troops and providing sea and air support, but relies on U.S. military muscle as a security guarantee.

Trump has not explicitly committed to providing that backup, but the leaders of Britain, France and Germany said after Tuesday’s meeting that attendees had agreed with Rubio “to accelerate joint work with the United States to take forward the planning on security guarantees.”

War-weariness could aid peace efforts

The latest push for peace comes as Ukrainians are exhausted after almost four years of war, with the country’s cities and energy infrastructure pummeled by Russian missiles and drones.

Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, and along the front line Russia is making slow gains and at huge human cost.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said sanctions on Russian oil and gas were starting to bite, putting Moscow under pressure.

“They want us to believe they can continue forever. This is not true,” she said.

There are also domestic troubles for Zelenskyy, dealing with a corruption scandal in his administration — and for Trump, facing rifts within his MAGA movement.

Jim Townsend, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said the Russians likely perceive Trump as impatient and unfocused, and will deploy delay tactics to avoid concessions.

“This could just be a real mess. The Russians don’t feel any pressure. They think they’re going to win if they hold out long enough. The pressure’s all on Zelenskyy,” he said.

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McNeil reported from Brussels.