AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa’s state Senate special election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in a Democratic-leaning West Des Moines-area district will pick a new state senator Tuesday in a special election that could allow Iowa Republicans to regain a supermajority in the chamber and secure the party’s grip on state government.

Democrat Renee Hardman of West Des Moines and Republican Lucas Loftin of Clive are the nominees to replace three-term Democratic state Sen. Claire Celsi, who died Oct. 6. Hardman is a member of the West Des Moines City Council and serves as mayor pro tempore. Loftin works for an environmental and outdoor services company.

Republicans hold a lopsided 33-16 advantage in the state Senate, one seat shy of the 34 needed for a supermajority. Iowa Democrats broke the GOP’s lock on the chamber in an August special election. In Iowa, a two-thirds supermajority is required to override a governor’s veto, call for special sessions, authorize certain payments and confirm some gubernatorial appointees, according to the Iowa Secretary of the Senate. Republicans already hold a supermajority in the Iowa state House.

Iowa’s 16th state Senate district includes West Des Moines, Windsor Heights and Clive in the southwest corner of Polk County, as well as one precinct in eastern Dallas County.

Celsi was reelected to a third term in 2024 with 69% of the vote. In the presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris received about 58% of the District 16 vote. Republican Donald Trump received about 41% of the vote and carried only one of the district’s 23 precincts. Celsi carried that same precinct with about 61%, which was her worst performance across the district.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request and pay for a recount. Candidates do not have to pay for recounts when the margin is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes, whichever is larger. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:

Special election day

The special election for Iowa state Senate District 16 will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the state Senate special election. It is the only contest on the ballot.

Who gets to vote?

Any voter registered in state Senate District 16 may participate in the special election.

What do registration and turnout look like?

As of Dec. 1, there were nearly 45,000 registered voters in state Senate District 16. About 37% were Democrats, about 30% were Republicans and about 32% were not registered with any party.

Turnout for the last District 16 race was about 67% of registered voters in the 2024 general election, boosted by the presidential race at the top of the ballot. About 62% of District 16 voters cast their ballots in-person on Election Day, while about 38% voted absentee.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 general election for District 16, the AP first reported results at 9:22 p.m. ET, or 22 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 11 p.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.