NDP surges to commanding lead as election nears, poll shows By: Kevin Rollason Posted: 5:26 PM CDT Wednesday, Sep. 20, 2023 Last Modified: 7:04 PM CDT Wednesday, Sep. 20, 2023 Updates

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Wab Kinew and the New Democrats have opened up a commanding lead in the provincial election campaign, with almost half of Manitobans supporting them, putting a majority government within their reach with less than two weeks to go until voting day.

And in seat-rich Winnipeg, where 32 of the province’s 57 ridings are, the NDP’s lead is even more significant.

A Free Press-CTV poll conducted by Probe Research this month shows the NDP has the support of 57 per cent of Winnipeggers, compared to 28 per cent for Premier Heather Stefanson and her governing Progressive Conservatives.

Provincially, the NDP has the support of 49 per cent of Manitobans, compared to 38 per cent for the Tories.

The Liberal Party of Manitoba has been relegated to also-ran status, with nine per cent support across the province and 11 per cent in Winnipeg.

It’s a stark change from the last Free Press poll, conducted in June, which found the two main parties were battling neck and neck at 41 per cent across the province.

Scott MacKay, president and founder of Probe Research, said the numbers show the New Democrats in a position to not only pick up a significant number of suburban seats in Winnipeg, they could even take away a few from the Tories outside the Perimeter Highway.

“When you think about it, the poll we did in June, which showed 41 to 41 (per cent), is the outlier,” MacKay said on Wednesday.

“These numbers are more like (where) they have been for two years. … The (June) poll set the tone with the pundits that this could be a close election, but it doesn’t look close now.

“As (a colleague) told me, the Tories were on a sugar high before the writ dropped, with them announcing and announcing and announcing. But then the campaign begins and it goes like this. The NDP has a lead of almost 30 per cent in Winnipeg.”

Other areas of the poll also favour the NDP and its leader.

Kinew is seen as the best choice as premier by 43 per cent of Manitobans, compared to 34 per cent who favour Stefanson and 18 per cent who support Lamont.

Kinew also has the highest approval for job performance, with 51 per cent approving and only 27 per cent strongly disapproving. This compares to Stefanson’s 32 per cent approval and 48 per cent strong disapproval.

Stefanson, in fact, did not rank second for job approval; that honour went to Liberal leader Dougald Lamont, whose job performance was approved by 38 per cent of Manitobans, with 20 per cent strongly disapproving.

The NDP has the support of 59 per cent of women and 62 per cent of Manitobans who have graduated from university, while the Tories are supported by 47 per cent of men and 47 per cent of Manitobans who are high school graduates or didn’t graduate.

The NDP also has large leads with voters aged 18-34, at 54 per cent (compared to the Tories at 31 per cent), and ages 35 to 54, at 52 per cent, with 36 per cent supporting the Tories.

The two parties are virtually tied with voters 55 and older, with 43 per cent for the NDP and 44 per cent for the Tories.

The poll did not focus on numbers in individual ridings, but in the four quadrants of Winnipeg, as well as the inner city, the NDP has significant leads everywhere except for northwest Winnipeg, where it is in a virtual tie with the Tories at 45 per cent to 42 per cent, respectively.

In southern Winnipeg, where the party hopes to pick up some seats from the Tories, the NDP has 55 per cent support in both the southwest and southeast, compared to 24 per cent for the PCs in the southwest and 30 per cent in the southeast.

Eleven per cent of Manitoba voters say they are undecided, down from 20 per cent in the Free Press poll last June.

Kelly Saunders, an associate political science professor at Brandon University, said the numbers show “voters are starting to make their decisions.

“On the NDP side, support from 2019 until now is holding steady, but on the Conservative side there is more hesitancy on whether to vote for Heather Stefanson,” she said.

“On the NDP side, support from 2019 until now is holding steady, but on the Conservative side there is more hesitancy on whether to vote for Heather Stefanson.”–Kelly Saunders

“Heather Stefanson has been marked as the most unpopular premier in the country for some time now and she is not bringing up the numbers at the end. … The NDP are pulling even further ahead in this poll. It certainly does not look good for the Conservatives and Heather Stefanson.”

Chris Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said he is astonished at both the size of the support the NDP has from women in Winnipeg and its support from men who traditionally have favoured the Tories.

The poll found 55 per cent of Winnipeg women and 41 per cent of Winnipeg men support the NDP.  That compares to 15 per cent of women in the city planning to support the Tories, and 33 per cent of men.

“The NDP is winning men over now and it wasn’t before,” Adams said. “The NDP is really picking up a lot of steam with Winnipeg voters.

“And, at 49 (per cent for the NDP) and 38 (per cent for the Tories across the province), that’s a real advantage to the NDP. I haven’t seen those numbers since (premier Gary) Doer.”

An NDP spokesperson said, “Since this campaign began, Wab Kinew has been saying Manitoba needs a change in government so we can repair our health-care system.

“This poll suggests a growing number of Manitobans agree. We have been working to earn a mandate from the people of Manitoba and will continue to work hard until election day.”

Marni Larkin, the PCs’ campaign manager, said because she hasn’t seen all the poll numbers, or the questions given, she wouldn’t comment on the poll.

“All I can comment on is what I see internally, and for sure it is a very close race,” Larkin said. “It will come down to a few seats, and we are hard at work. For us, it is really targeted seats … we’re feeling really confident.

“People like our message.”

“It will come down to a few seats, and we are hard at work. For us, it is really targeted seats … we’re feeling really confident.”–Marni Larkin, PCs’ campaign manager

Larkin said the fact many of the PCs’ election announcements are being made by ministers and candidates rather than Stefanson is not related to the leader’s flagging popularity reflected in the Probe poll.

“We have a leader who trusts her team,” she said. “I’m really proud of our leader saying it is a team effort, it’s not just about me. … I think you’ll find in the next days the bench matters a lot, and we have a very strong bench.”

The poll of 1,000 adult Manitobans, conducted between Sept. 7 to 18, has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 95 per cent of the time.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca

Kevin Rollason
Reporter

Kevin Rollason was a general assignment reporter at the Free Press.