Liberals have opportunities — the PCs, less so

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This article was published 13/02/2024 (652 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Election night 2023 was not unlike many others with big winners, notably the NDP, and even bigger losers. Both the Liberals and the PCs took massive blows and saw both of their leaders announce they’d be stepping down. Now, here we are, four months later, with both parties headed up by interim leaders and on the cusp of leadership races.

So who are these interim leaders?

For the Liberals, lone MLA Cindy Lamoureux is someone who previously ran for leader and surprisingly, to me anyway, lost to Dougald Lamont. She is a formidable constituency politician and has deep roots within the Liberal party and community, as her father, Kevin Lamoureux, is the MP for the area.

Unfortunately, under Lamont’s leadership, Lamoureux received very little speaking time in the legislative chamber, and even less attention in the media. That’s all changed now. Here she is, the single success story within the Liberal caucus. She handily won her seat last fall, even as stalwart Jon Gerrard and leader Lamont lost theirs due to the so-called Orange Wave.

Prospects for the Manitoba Liberals are both exciting and challenging. If they attract the right leader — Lamoureux herself hasn’t ruled it out, and I’m sure there are others also in the wings — and garner a few media wins prior to the next election, they stand a good chance of establishing official party status, meaning having a minimum of four seats in the legislature. Even better, it they put forward some well-thought-out and executed publicity initiatives, create a solid electoral platform, and attract a good slate of candidates, they may even become the official opposition.

As the public grows weary with the NDP government — and they will sooner or later — and more promises from the NDP platform go unfulfilled, the more opportunity there is for the Liberals.

Less so for the PCs. Voters are unlikely to forget any time soon the disastrous campaign last fall, and even if they did, the NDP will remain quick to pounce on any progress the PCs make in repairing a tarnished reputation. With the PCs firmly in the crosshairs of the NDP, and vice-versa, the Liberals can quietly rebuild from within and capture the attention of the public.

Sure, one can say that’s always been the case for Liberals, yet not since Sharon Carstairs, with her 20-seat victory, have they been able to accomplish much. But I would argue the timing has never been better. Even more so if the PCs rush into another leadership convention, or end up with a leader who is unwilling or unable to stand up to “the base.”

As someone once elected in that caucus, even I was ultimately surprised by the strength of the base as I watched the campaign pivot right at the expense of moderate conservatives such as myself and former colleagues Jon Reyes, Andrew Smith and Sarah Guillemard, to name a few. We were no match, and undoubtedly the base will continue to loom large. Further, as we see some conservative leaders, notably federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, continue to grow in popularity, there’ll be even more clamour for Manitoba PCs to follow suit, further thwarting any rebuilding efforts in its urban constituencies. Moderation will be key.

That leads me to newly minted interim PC leader Wayne Ewasko. The MLA for Lac du Bonnet has been part of the caucus since 2011 and is probably one of the friendliest, most affable politicians in the room. Always a good listener, he will take caucus matters to heart, seek out stillness in the waters, and be the steady-as-he-goes leader the party needs right now.

His challenge is going to be in recognizing the biggest win he could deliver is to hold off on a leadership convention for at least 18 months, possibly even two years. Anything less would risk tainting the race and its ultimate victor with the airs of a lingering past. As time ticks on, an impatient eagerness will settle in that Ewasko will have to manage, but even more so, he’ll have to negotiate the final exit of former premier Heather Stefanson.

Undoubtedly, the moment she resigns as Tuxedo MLA, a byelection will be called. Unless she waits until after the leadership race — an unfair request if you ask me — the seat may not be available for the future leader to run in. Yet none of that should saddle her decision. Regardless of what’s come before, she’s earned the right to untangle herself on her terms. In taking the reins, Ewasko should offer her assurances to chart her own course and know the party is being left in good hands.

Rochelle Squires is a recovering politician after serving 7 1/2 years in the Manitoba legislature. She is a political and social commentator whose column appears Tuesdays.rochelle@rochellesquires.ca