Could Laine come back? What’s up with McGroarty? Your Jets questions answered

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/07/2024 (435 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The dog days of summer are upon us. But our mailbox continues to overflow with questions about the Winnipeg Jets. They may be out of sight right now, but the NHL club is never out of mind.

From a potential reunion with an old friend, the mysterious status of a top prospect, to no shortage of roster concerns and complaints, Free Press hockey writers Ken Wiebe and Mike McIntyre had plenty to wade through this month.

Let’s get right to it, shall we:

1. What are the odds of Patrik Laine coming back? David

Wiebe: The prospect of the second overall pick of the 2016 NHL Draft returning to the Jets is an intriguing one and it’s generated plenty of buzz on social media. Determining the odds of Laine suiting up again in a Jets’ uniform? That’s a bit more complicated to try and determine for a variety of reasons.

Laine has been cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance program and the most important thing for him is that he’s in a better place.

That should open the door for him to be traded, though Elliotte Friedman reported on Friday he is still recovering from shoulder surgery.

One of the impediments to a trade is the $8.7 million AAV he will carry for the next two seasons. That salary would be tough for the Jets to absorb and even if the Columbus Blue Jackets were to retain some of it (leaving an AAV in the $6 million range for the sake of this conversation), the next question relates to what the asking price might be.

When healthy, Laine has been a productive player but he’s been hampered by injuries during the past several seasons.

He needs a change of scenery and it makes sense to question whether he’d be interested in returning to the place he enjoyed his greatest successes — many of them as an 18- and 19-year-old when Laine filled the net with his booming shot and filled notebooks with his colourful quotes that included “Winnipeg is good.”

The Finnish forward was wildly popular and provided plenty of highlight-reel moments during the early stages of his career. Laine also helped give the Jets global appeal, as evidenced during the Global Series in his home country in 2019.

Yes, things were rocky at the end of the relationship for Laine and the Jets and it was time for a change, but with the benefit of hindsight, one would expect both sides probably wished they had been able to find a way to stay together.

Could that lead to a reunion? Maybe, but at least at this stage of the game, the odds are more likely in the range of 10 to 15 per cent. That number could rise in the summer of 2026 when Laine is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.

2. After 13 years of Chevy’s “draft & development” model, and now entering year 14, we’ve proven that we’re not a playoff contender. Players want out and season ticket holders are taking off at an alarming rate. What is True North’s vision? Joey

McIntyre: I can see the glass is definitely half-empty in your cup, Joey!

I wouldn’t agree the Jets aren’t a playoff contender, considering they’re coming off a 110-point season in which they finished fourth-overall in the NHL standings.

Did they disappoint in the playoffs? Absolutely, and for a second straight year.

I’d also take issue with the “players want out” comment. Winnipeg’s track record is actually quite strong when it comes to retaining talent, whether that’s drafted and developed stars (Hellebuyck, Morrissey, Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Lowry) who sign long-term extensions, or trade adds (Niederreiter, Namestnikov, DeMelo) who opt to stay.

Season tickets are an issue, for sure, although the second-half trend last year was encouraging.

All of which is to say: this coming season is another big one for the organization. Not only will they need to remain competitive on the ice, but they need to continue making progress when it comes to re-engaging with the community and plenty of lost fans.

They’ll once again spend to near the salary cap ceiling, and the vision continues to be icing a team capable of winning the Stanley Cup one day. Duplicating last year’s 82-game campaign would be a big step in that direction.

3. Are the Jets going to match last year’s point total? Are they finally going to advance further in the playoffs? Bobby

Wiebe: The Jets took a significant step forward last season, eclipsing 100 points for the second time in franchise history and finishing tied for fourth in the NHL with 110 points.

The crystal ball is always a bit cloudier and it’s risky to make predictions before training camp even gets underway, since the roster picture isn’t nearly complete.

I’ll answer the first question this way. It will be difficult for the Jets to match last season’s point total, but they could easily be in the 100-to-109 point range and still compete with the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche for the Central Division crown.

The more pressing matter for the Jets is trying to figure out the playoff portion of the equation. Qualifying for the playoffs isn’t an easy task, but after consecutive early exits in the first round, the Jets need to show that they’ve learned from the disappointments and are ready to move forward.

How far the Jets go this season is nothing more than a guess right now, but I would suspect they will win more than just one playoff game next spring and could win multiple rounds if a few things fall into place — and a trade or two get made to bolster the roster.

4. Nothing has happened to put fans in the seats, actually the opposite. So the team needed a few things, at least two good defencemen, one right-handed shot at least, that was not addressed. Right now they have three NHL defencemen and the balance AHL material. Morrissey, DeMelo and Samberg. Needed two forwards, retain Monahan, pay him what he is worth, Columbus did, surely Winnipeg can compete with Columbus as a city to play in. And find one other goal scorer. How can a team with just a few needs, not do anything? Dwayne

McIntyre: You won’t get an argument from me that the Jets, at least on paper, appear to have taken a step back from the club that wasn’t good enough to get it done in the playoffs last year.

Sean Monahan, Tyler Toffoli, Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt are all gone, as is backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit. That being said, I’m holding off judgment until I see how those holes are filled — specifically what some young players who are going to get increased opportunities can do.

That includes the likes of Dylan Samberg, Cole Perfetti, hopefully a full season of a healthy Gabe Vilardi and the likes of top prospects such as Ville Heinola, Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov and Elias Salomonsson.

It may not be the way they initially drew it up, but the door is now wide open for a bit of a youth movement here which could prove beneficial.

5. My question regards Rutger McGroarty. Doesn’t he have college time left or did the Jets sign him? Another year in college could help him mature and maybe open up the possibility of him making the NHL roster in 2025-26. It seems to me they shouldn’t give up easily on such a good prospect. Brian

McIntyre: The Jets have not signed McGroarty, but he is eligible to play college for two more seasons before he would become a free agent able to sign with any team.

Even then, he couldn’t sign with another team until Aug. 15, 2026. In that sense, the organization has time on its side.

Going back to Michigan this fall isn’t the end of the world, for sure, although it might feel that way for McGroarty given the fact he apparently believes he is currently NHL-ready. That’s the sticking point right now with Winnipeg (and, by the sounds of it, potential trade partners), but going back to college rather than take the risk you might have to spend a bit of time in the AHL working on your pro game would seem to be a rather impractical solution for the player.

I don’t believe the Jets will “give up” on him in the sense they’re going to move him for pennies on the dollar if he sticks to his guns and refuses to sign. But his mindset is also making it difficult to find much of a market for him at this point. And so this proverbial game of chicken continues.

6. McGroarty seemingly was on his way elsewhere pre-draft. Now, it’s slowed. What do you see as more likely: He’s traded before the season begins, prior to trade deadline or the relationship mends? Terrag

Wiebe: It wasn’t just smoke surrounding McGroarty leading into and coming out of the 2024 NHL Draft. There was plenty of action and communication with multiple teams about his future and several close calls when it came to a potential trade.

Neither the Jets nor McGroarty’s camp are interested in discussing the situation publicly, which isn’t a surprise. But it also makes it difficult to discern what the next steps are going to be.

As it stands right now, McGroarty plans to return for his junior season with the University of Michigan Wolverines. He’ll play a big role there and be part of the leadership group. The stakes are high for McGroarty when it comes to his development. He wants to be in the NHL and barring a late summer change, he will spend the next college season trying to show that he’s ready to make the jump as soon as the Wolverines season is over.

The better he plays, the better his chances are of making that happen. Whether that’s with the Jets or another team remains to be seen. If McGroarty is a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award, that’s only going to increase his value on both fronts.

The Jets haven’t closed the door on trying to find a way to get the relationship with McGroarty back on track. Because he wasn’t moved at the draft, determining his trade value isn’t easy, otherwise a deal probably would have been made already.

Of the scenarios offered, it seems most likely to me that McGroarty will be part of an NHL trade deadline deal that brings back a package that includes a defenceman who is under team control for multiple seasons.

7. In your estimation, will the Jets make any significant roster moves from now until training camp or does that depend on the McGroarty stalemate? How much do the Jets expect to get now in return for such a highly publicized situation and a 14th overall pick? Ed

McIntyre: The longer the summer goes on, the more convinced I am that what you see is what you’re going to get when it comes to the Jets.

Other than signing restricted free agent Cole Perfetti to a new deal, I don’t expect much other movement. Depending on the number Perfetti’s cap hit comes in at, the Jets could have plenty of cap space still available to keep their eyes open for bargains that may be available courtesy of teams who will need to shed salary before the season starts, so that’s worth keeping an eye on.

8. Which teams are in cap hell and might swap out some high-dollar talent that the Jets can capitalize on? Mark

Wiebe: According to Puck Pedia, the Washington Capitals are the team with the toughest situation right now at more than $10 million over the salary cap, but the number is a bit deceiving, since Niklas Backstrom ($9.5M) is likely staying on long term injured reserve and there are questions about the future of fellow forward T.J. Oshie (who has one season at $5.75M and could also be heading for LTIR).

There was some chatter around the 2024 NHL Draft that the Jets and Capitals were considering a deal that involved centre Connor McMichael. McMichael is under contract for two more seasons at $2.1M and then will be a restricted free agent. McMichael was bumped down the depth chart with the arrival of former Jets centre PL Dubois.

Jets head coach Scott Arniel would be familiar with McMichael from his time with the Capitals and he would immediately find himself in the battle for the 2C job that is vacant after the departure of Sean Monahan in free agency.

The Vegas Golden Knights are currently $3.64M over the cap, but there isn’t really a fit similar to the one that was explored in October of 2020 when Paul Stastny returned to the Jets as the Golden Knights worked to shed some salary.

It’s not just the cap ceiling to consider here though, as there will be some teams that won’t be contenders who are looking to move out some money. That’s an area the Jets are likely to focus on, whether it be during the remainder of the offseason or at some point during the 2024-25 season.

9. Reviewing the Carolina Hurricanes’ player adds/losses, the Jets situation doesn’t look bad. Do the Jets stand pat or do you see a top-4 D-man or 2C upgrade before camp? Craig

Wiebe: The Hurricanes had a large number of pending unrestricted free agents and there were certainly notable departures, from defencemen Brett Pesce (New Jersey Devils) and Brady Skjei (Nashville Predators) and forwards Teuvo Teravainen (Chicago Blackhawks), Stefan Noesen (Devils) and Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning), among others.

But the Hurricanes retained Jordan Martinook, added Stanley Cup pedigree and feistiness in William Carrier, took a flier on former Jets forward Jack Roslovic and revamped the D corps with Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere and also signed Jaccob Slavin to a long-term extension.

New GM Eric Tulsky is having a solid offseason so far, though he needs to get a new contract for Winnipegger Seth Jarvis and fellow restricted free agent Martin Necas (unless he is moved in a deal).

As for the Jets, right now they seem to be lurking in the weeds and investigating what else the offseason will bring.

Without fully knowing what other players around the league are available (and what the asking prices are), it’s tough to know for sure what Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is thinking about his roster.

I wouldn’t rule out a blockbuster of some kind, but the Jets are probably comfortable with the roster they currently have.

Jets head coach Scott Arniel told me last week he would see how the battle for the second-line centre job plays out, but went out of his way to praise the job Vladislav Namestnikov did in the role before Sean Monahan was brought in.

As for the defence corps, unless the Jets find an upgrade for Neal Pionk, the top 4 is set. As of now, the most likely scenario sees Pionk and Samberg playing together. That leaves Colin Miller to skate alongside either Ville Heinola or Logan Stanley, unless Haydn Fleury forces himself into the equation (which is possible). Heinola has played on his off side before, so it’s possible he spends some time with Samberg.

If the Jets are going to acquire a top-4 D-man, it would come in a trade involving Nikolaj Ehlers and that seems less likely right now.

I expect the Jets will want to see how the defence corps holds up after the departures of Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt. If an upgrade is required, a pre-emptive strike prior to the trade deadline seems like it could be in the cards — especially if the 2C job is filled internally by Brad Lambert or Perfetti.

10. Rapid fire questions: Will Ehlers play on the top line? Will Lambert make the team at 2C? Bridge or long-term for Perfetti? Sign or trade McGroarty? Bill

McIntyre: I’m going to say, in order: No (he’ll start on the second line, but top power play unit).

No (I suspect Vlad Namestnikov starts the season in that spot).

Bridge (although I firmly believe a long-term deal is the better play for both Perfetti and the Jets.

And trade (although I think this situation will drag on past the start of the season and maybe all the way into next summer, so don’t hold your breath.)

11. The line of Kyle Connor-Mark Scheifele-Gabriel Vilardi was horrible last year. Connor and Scheifele have no track record of success to fall back on except when with Nikolaj Ehlers or Blake Wheeler in 2017-18. Are the Jets really planning to run them as a top line again? @MennoKnight427

Wiebe: First of all, horrible is a relative term and in this case, it feels like an exaggeration.

Secondly, sample size is something to consider — especially when looking at the injuries suffered to both Connor and Vilardi at various stages of last season. This is not to throw out the underlying numbers (which certainly could have used improvement) or to suggest there isn’t evidence that Scheifele and Connor haven’t been outscored by their opposition previously).

But the early injury to Vilardi and Connor’s departure from the lineup in December, coupled with Vilardi’s late-season ailment, meant that the trio always seemed to have at least one player coming back and trying to get back up to speed.

Vilardi is a smart two-way player who is strong along the boards and it’s easy to see why a coach would think he would mesh well with the skillsets of Scheifele and Connor and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jets rolled out those three players as the top unit at various points of the season.

I also don’t think for a second that it’s the only combination Scott Arniel will use this season when he puts his lines together for training camp. Provided he remains on the roster (which I expect him to), Nikolaj Ehlers will be under consideration for top-line duty and the same could be said for Cole Perfetti once his next contract is signed.

The challenge for Scheifele and Connor when they play together is to ensure they outproduce the opponent. Of course, shot share and high danger chances produced versus allowed is important and will be part of the discussion. There’s no denying Scheifele and Connor have been productive players during the course of their respective careers and have a keen understanding of where each other are going to be on the ice.

There’s also no denying Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi had an exceptional run when Connor was out of the lineup, but that hot stretch didn’t continue coming out of the Christmas break, nor did it ignite immediate chemistry when Rick Bowness went back to them late in the season.

That’s not to suggest it should not be looked at again either. Connor and Perfetti played well together at points a few seasons ago when Dubois was at centre, so that’s a duo that could be used as well. There are a lot of moving parts and one of the storylines of training camp will include what direction Arniel goes when it comes to the early look at the top line.

12. Is Elias Salomonsson going to be at the full Jets training camp and get an honest chance at making the team or is he staying home or going to the Moose? The Jets desperately need someone to step up and take the RHD position and give some excitement and hope to the fans. Stuart

Wiebe: Salomonsson will be at training camp and the plan is definitely for him to be playing in North America this season and he will certainly be given an honest chance to show what he can do.

He’s in the mix for a job on the right side but would need to outplay several players — as he’s not going to be kept on the NHL roster as the seventh or eighth D-man. The Jets’ second round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft is coming off a fantastic season in the SHL with Skelleftea that included a league championship.

Salomonsson is a mobile puck-mover that plays with an edge, all qualities that are welcome on the Jets’ defence corps.

While Salomonsson has been playing professionally in his home country and has the benefit of international experience with Sweden at the World Junior Hockey Championship, it will be up to him to show that he’s ready to make the jump to the Jets — whether that’s directly out of training camp or after gaining some additional seasoning with the Manitoba Moose of the American Hockey League.

When Salomonsson is ready, he will provide plenty of excitement and hope to the fan base, as he’s the top defence prospect in the organization and is only 20 years old.

But that’s not going to be a factor in the initial decision of where he starts the campaign. There are obvious benefits to Salomonsson playing more of a top-pairing role in the AHL rather than skating on the Jets’ third pairing. The long-term development of the player is the primary concern here and while Salomonsson projects to be a top-4 NHLer before long, achieving that goal is likely going to be helped by some time with the Moose.

Asking Salomonsson to start the season on the second pair alongside Dylan Samberg is a big ask. Some patience is likely going to be required, but it won’t be long before he helps stabilize the right side.

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X: @WiebesWorld

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca

X: @mikemcintyrewpg