The Jets will be a-changin’

Change is both inevitable and necessary for the next edition of the Winnipeg Jets.

After sorting through the organization-wide disappointment of going from a Presidents’ Trophy-winning regular season to missing out on the Stanley Cup playoffs entirely — and finishing in the bottom third of the standings — some hard decisions are on the horizon for general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff and his management team.

The Jets will close out the regular season at home on Thursday against the San Jose Sharks, but the autopsy is already underway.

Although there were some impressive individual seasons put together by the likes of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey, to name a few, this group was not deep enough or talented enough to earn one of the 16 available spots to the post-season party.

The Jets understood it would take a collective approach to try and replace Nikolaj Ehlers as he departed as an unrestricted free agent to the Carolina Hurricanes last summer, but neither the internal players expected to take the next step in their development or the guys brought in to help fill the void were able to get that job done.

Ehlers eclipsed 70 points for the first time in his career, reaching 71 after being a 20-goal guy for the ninth time in 11 NHL seasons (one of which was shortened to 48 games).

Too many of the Jets returnees regressed, whether it was a matter of battling against Father Time or working their way through injuries.

One of the wildest swings this season was related to defensive structure, where the Jets went from capturing consecutive Jennings trophies for giving up the fewest goals in the entire NHL to finishing with a goal differential that was worse by more than 100 this season.

In finishing first overall, the Jets were plus-86 last season and are currently minus-24 with one game left on the docket.

The end result was a season of frustration, one that featured glimpses of potential in a 9-3 start and a committed block coming out of the Olympic break that allowed the Jets to pull within one point of a playoff spot before fading back into the sunset.

Some noteworthy developments included top defence prospect Elias Salomonsson cobbling together 32 NHL games on his resumé before getting knocked into concussion protocol and forward Morgan Barron showing that he’s ready to take on more responsibility moving forward.

Were it not for several injuries and a couple of droughts, Barron was trending towards hitting 15 or more goals for the first time in his career. As it stands, he’s tied for seventh on the Jets in goals and is one of eight players to reach double digits in that category.

Barron is one season away from unrestricted free agency, so a contract extension for him that includes a raise should be a priority for the Jets.

After the trade deadline, the Jets got a glimpse at where Isak Rosen and Brad Lambert might fit into the puzzle, while giving Nikita Chibrikov an opportunity to see where he stands and getting Brayden Yager his first taste of NHL action.

But going into the off-season, Cheveldayoff must decide who is going to be part of the solution moving forward and who must be brought in to augment a roster that needs an infusion of talent.

One of those pieces could come from the 2026 draft, where the Jets are assured of picking in the Top 10 regardless of the result on Thursday but would love for some lottery luck to bump them into the Top 5.

Even if the Jets find a player that can compete for a roster spot in the fall, trades and free agent signings are going to be necessary for this organization to get back to where they want to go.

The Jets currently have nine players on the roster that are in need of a new deal. The pending unrestricted free agents are: G Eric Comrie; D Colin Miller; D Ville Heinola; D Jacob Bryson; C Jonathan Toews; LW Cole Koepke; F Gustav Nyquist; and the pending restricted free agents are: F Cole Perfetti and F Isak Rosen.

Among the pending free agents, Comrie is the most likely to return in a backup role while Koepke is someone who is fast, hard to play against, is a strong penalty killer and can contribute somewhere in the seven-to-11 goal range — which is what teams look for in a fourth line role.

Toews never did quite reach the level required to consistently handle the second-line role, but he’s someone that would be welcomed back in a reduced role, provided he wants to suit up in a 17th NHL season.

It’s a safe bet that Heinola and Nyquist — who never found his offensive rhythm — will be seeking opportunities elsewhere.

Defencemen Miller and Bryson would be under consideration to return, though the Jets are probably going to look to add more size and snarl on the back end this summer.

Moving to the restricted free agents, Rosen is tracking towards a bridge deal as he works to become an NHL regular.

That leaves forward Perfetti, who will be a fascinating study when it comes to establishing his value on a long-term deal. The 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft had a tale of two seasons, some of which was due to the high ankle sprain he suffered late in training camp.

Despite a much better second half, Perfetti’s production dipped dramatically — boasting only 12 goals and 32 points in 67 games going into the regular-season finale.

The struggle was real early as Perfetti had just two goals in his first 26 games of the campaign, but he found his form as his health improved to ensure he hit double digits for a third consecutive season (after scoring 10 goals in the past 41 games).

The Jets need Perfetti to grow into a 20-goal, 65-plus points guy moving forward and that’s why a long-term extension with a significant raise remains the most likely outcome.

Where the average annual value lands is going to be interesting to monitor, but the range is likely to be between US$6-7.5 million and most of the signs point to Perfetti becoming the next member of the core group to commit long-term to the Jets.

Determining who will be playing centre alongside Perfetti is more difficult to predict at this stage of the proceedings, though there is plenty of time to get that sorted out.

winnipegfreepress.com/kenwiebe