High hopes, lower expectations for voter turnout in summer byelection By: Larry Kusch Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Monday, Jul. 16, 2018

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This article was published 16/07/2018 (2711 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the size of the advance vote is any indication, Tuesday’s contest in St. Boniface could see a higher-than-usual turnout for a provincial byelection — despite the fact it is occurring in the summer, when politics usually takes a backseat in voters’ minds.

A total of 1,143 residents cast their ballots early — a sizable number for a byelection, according to Elections Manitoba. In the 2016 general election, 1,051 persons voted in advance in St. Boniface; overall voter turnout in the constituency was 63.7 per cent.

No one is predicting a turnout that high in the election to fill the vacancy left by former NDP premier Greg Selinger’s resignation, but a solid, four-party race — with high stakes for both the NDP and Liberals — is adding a lot of sizzle to a contest smack dab in the middle of barbecue season.

The New Democrats, which were reduced to 14 seats in the last general election, cannot afford to lose any more ground in the Manitoba legislature to the governing Progressive Conservatives. They are already down an MLA after booting Mohinder Saran (The Maples) out of their caucus in early 2017 due to sexual-harassment allegations.

A win by Liberal candidate — and party leader — Dougald Lamont would give the Grits party status — four seats — in the legislature and the additional powers and funding that come with it.

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According to Elections Manitoba, there has not been a provincial byelection during the months of July or August since at least 1974. The organization, responsible for conducting elections in Manitoba since 1980, has no byelection records that pre-date that time.

In 14 byelections between 1998 and 2017, voter turnout has ranged from 21 per cent in The Pas in April 2015, to 59.3 per cent in Lac du Bonnet in March 2002. The provincial turnout in 2016, when the Progressive Conservatives swept to power after nearly 17 years in opposition, was 57.4 per cent.

"We’re expecting a very decent turnout," said Lindsay Stewart, campaign manager for NDP candidate Blandine Tona. She anticipates a turnout about "80 per cent" of what it was two years ago in St. Boniface. That would mean a turnout of slightly more than 50 per cent — a figure she allows that might be optimistic.

Eric Stewart, who is managing Lamont’s campaign, said the high advanced poll number was a surprise.

"It means one of two things: either people are really, really engaged in this, or people aren’t going to be around to vote on July 17," he said.

Initially, the Liberals were estimating a turnout in the 25 per cent, 35 per cent range due to the July voting date. Now, they’re expecting a higher number than that, Stewart said, without committing to a figure.

Paul Thomas, a retired University of Manitoba political science professor, said even with so much at stake for the Liberals and NDP, he would be surprised to see a turnout much above 30 per cent.

"Beyond it being a summer byelection, there is the fact that the PCs have not spent money or brought in many political heavyweights to help the local candidate (Mamadou Ka) so that will depress the turnout," he said. "The decent advance vote is probably a sign that people want the flexibility of voting early when they have other fun things to do in the summer."

Raymond Hébert, professor emeritus of political science at Université de Saint-Boniface, said despite the fact the Liberal, NDP, Progressive Conservative and Green candidates are all running good campaigns, he expects a turnout of about 35 per cent.

"We could be surprised on election day. It might be in the 40s. I think if it’s in the 40s, it’s a large turnout for a byelection," he said.

Zach Greenberg, campaign manager for PC candidate Ka, said he expects the turnout to be about 30 per cent.

"It’s the summer and it’s a byelection. So you can expect turnout to drop, big time," he said.

Greenberg maintained the Tories are devoting even more resources to the constituency than they did in 2016, when Ka, also the candidate then, finished second to Selinger.

Françoise Therrien Vrignon is representing the Green party in the byelection. The Greens won more than 1,000 of the close to 8,700 votes cast in St. Boniface in 2016.

As of Friday, there were about 12,800 persons registered to vote in the byelection.

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca