Student vote project mirrors Manitoba election results

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This article was published 04/10/2023 (705 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba students predicted a majority NDP government in a mock election during which more than 30,000 ballots were cast in elementary and high school classrooms across the province in the lead up to Oct. 3.

“We were shocked (by) how close it was,” said Dan Allan, chief program officer at CIVIX, a national charity with a mandate to promote civic education.

The New Democrats won 43.5 per cent of all votes in Manitoba’s 2023 Student Vote — one of CIVIX’s flagship initiatives. That’s about a single point from the true result: the winning party earned 45.3 per cent of the popular vote.

Students selected 39 NDP nominees, 16 Tory candidates and a single member of the Liberals to form the next Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

Those results reflect 29,302 valid ballots submitted by 281 schools located in all but one of the province’s 57 constituencies as of 5 p.m. Tuesday. There were an additional 1,108 rejected ballots, which were not clearly marked, and 630 declined ones, meaning no candidate was selected.

In reality, premier-designate Wab Kinew led the NDP to victory by securing 34 seats. The Progressive Conservatives will form the official Opposition, with 22 MLAs. The Liberals secured one seat.

“I had a feeling (the NDP) would win because of what they promised, and a lot of people liked what they were promising,” said Nina Ginter, 16. “I just hope that they keep their promises.”

The Grade 11 student said she voted for the winning party during Kelvin High School’s model race, after learning about all of the political platforms, and talking to her parents about current issues — including the state of the health-care system — at home.

The NDP plans to tackle poverty and its representatives’ vocal opposition to racism and homophobia factored into the decision, she said.

Manitoba youth also foresaw Dougald Lamont’s downfall as leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.

Participants in both St. Boniface, where Lamont was unseated, and River Heights — a Liberal stronghold that had been held by Jon Gerrard for more than 25 years — selected NDP candidates.

The only red seat on the student map was Cindy Lamoureux in Tyndall Park, mirroring the real result.

In an electoral district nearby, Sisler High School students and residents of Burrows at-large voted for the NDP’s Diljeet Brar.

“Some of (my students) said they could not sleep. They were waiting for the moment. Some of them dressed specially for the occasion,” said Orysya Petryshyn, recalling the excitement surrounding Monday’s model race.

Manitoba schools were shuttered for an in-service day Tuesday, in compliance with 2017 changes to the Elections Act. The updates did not apply to the last provincial vote because then-premier Brian Pallister called a race in September 2019, more than a year in advance of the prescribed fixed date (Oct. 6, 2020).

Asked about the new law requiring classes be cancelled on fixed-date general elections, Petryshyn said there are pros and cons to students being at home when polling stations, many of which are set-up in schools, are up and running.

“For educational purposes, it would be nice if students would be able to see and observe, but we live in difficult times, so we have to take care of our students. They are our priority. Safety is No. 1,” she said.

The Student Vote’s overall findings suggest outgoing PC premier Heather Stefanson would have lost her Tuxedo seat if pupils had the final say. In fact, Stefanson secured her MLA re-election bid by 259 votes, although she stepped down as party leader Tuesday night.

The Green party and Keystone Party of Manitoba won over more students than eligible voters, with 3.9 per cent and 1.4 per cent of the popular vote, respectively.

Allan said 49 students at William Morton Collegiate in Agassiz declined their ballots because they wanted to vote for the Greens, but the party wasn’t fielding a candidate in their area.

Students are typically “more willing to vote for what their heart thinks,” instead of engaging in strategic voting, the chief program officer said.

Throughout the campaign, teachers reported having emotional discussions with classes about promises related to the proposed landfill search for two missing Indigenous women police believe to be buried at Prairie Green, north of Winnipeg, he said.

“We did hear — and this is something we’ve heard in the past, as well — students are disappointed when the tone of the campaign is very negative or nasty rather than positive and looking forward,” Allan added, noting the personal attacks made in political advertisements in recent weeks.

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Miles Macdonell Collegiate’s Gord Fritzsche said he acted as a referee in the lead up to election day.

“It’s really important for us to model that just because someone disagrees with you on something doesn’t mean that we have to be angry or to disrespect each other,” said the history and social studies teacher.

The mock election results in 2016, the last time CIVIX conducted a province-wide race in Manitoba, also matched true events.

At the time, young voters supported a blue wave that mirrored the Tories coming to power with a majority government under Pallister.

maggie.macintosh@freepress.mb.ca

Maggie Macintosh
Education reporter

Maggie Macintosh reports on education for the Free Press. Originally from Hamilton, Ont., she first reported for the Free Press in 2017. Read more about Maggie.

Funding for the Free Press education reporter comes from the Government of Canada through the Local Journalism Initiative.

Every piece of reporting Maggie produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.