Manitobans’ support for Carney’s Liberals ‘strong and stable’ as federal NDP slumps: poll

Support for the federal NDP is tanking in Manitoba, much to the benefit of Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal party.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll pegs the Liberals at 55 per cent support in Winnipeg, while the NDP has slumped to 10 per cent, way down from the 31 per cent the party enjoyed just two years ago.

The Conservative party, which has been second to the Liberals in Winnipeg since February 2025, is at 32 per cent.

It’s a similar story across the province.

Carney and his party have the support of 46 per cent of voters in Manitoba, while the Conservative party is at 39 per cent. The NDP garners a meagre eight per cent — it was at 22 per cent as recent as February 2025.

Mary Agnes Welch of Probe Research said the Liberal lead over the Tories in Winnipeg has implications for several of their seats.

“You remember, during the last election, there was chatter about the Tories picking up some of those suburban Liberal seats?” Welch said.

“That seems outside the realm of possibilities now in Winnipeg. Those Liberal seats, and that Liberal support, is strong and stable. The Tories aren’t making much headway in those suburban seats.”

As for the NDP, Welch said support is dropping across the province. While it might seem the party has a lock on inner-city Winnipeg, where Leah Gazan is the NDP MP for Winnipeg Centre, it’s even facing Liberal headwinds there.

The inner city, which includes downtown, Wolseley, the North End, West End and Elmwood, has the NDP at 28 per cent, while the Liberals are at 45 per cent.

“If you remember, Leah Gazan was in a really tough race — a surprisingly tough race — with the Liberals in the federal election a year ago,” Welch said.

“So, even in the inner city, the Liberals are almost double the NDP. The decline of the NDP in the city is actually sort of shocking. From 31 per cent two years ago, to 10 per cent now, is a bit catastrophic.”

The Liberals are at 55 per cent in the inner suburb areas of St. James, River Heights, St. Boniface and Transcona, with the NDP at 10 per cent and the Tories at 31 per cent.

In the outer suburbs, with St. Vital, Charleswood, Tuxedo, Waverley West and North Kildonan, the Liberals are at 58 per cent, the NDP at three per cent, and the Tories at 37 per cent.

Christopher Adams, a political studies professor at the University of Manitoba, said “the provincial NDP hasn’t worked hard to support their federal brothers and sisters — and you can see the reason why.

“It’s very different numbers for the federal and provincial NDP. As long as Donald Trump is in power, and causing great consternation to Manitobans, that’s to the benefit of Carney.”

Adams said that could change, especially after this weekend’s national NDP convention in Winnipeg, where the party is set to elect a leader.

“Right now, the NDP don’t have a leader,” he said. “They are hobbled now. We don’t know what will happen when they have a leader.”

Even though the Liberals are riding high, Adams said, it’s a different story for their provincial cousins. A Free Press-Probe poll last week put the provincial Liberals at eight per cent in Winnipeg and just four per cent across the province.

“Clearly it is two worlds for the Liberals,” Adams said. “The provincial Liberals are not getting a big bounce from support for Carney.”

Probe randomly polled 1,000 Manitoba adults, using both landline and cellphone numbers, live agent operators, text messages, interactive voice response, and its own online panel, between March 1 and 17.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 95 times out of 100.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca