Tariff turmoil

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This article was published 25/02/2025 (193 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

For now, hammers keep swinging and the work continues.

Behind the scenes, Sean Hogan and his staff wonder how U.S. tariffs will affect business.

“If the tariffs happen, the goods that we are installing will become more expensive,” Hogan said. “Most likely, that will cause a pinch on affordable housing availability in Manitoba.”

Hogan is the executive director of Build Inc., an Indigenous-led social enterprise that trains Manitobans facing barriers to renovate homes in disrepair.

The non-profit converted roughly 350 houses last year. It’s aiming to hit the same number in 2025. First, though, Build Inc. may review its supply chain as management is considering how operations can remain “as stable as possible,” Hogan said.

He’s part of a majority: 62 per cent of Manitoba business have already experienced or are anticipating negative effects from U.S. tariffs, a new Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce survey found.

The chamber questioned 116 Manitoba businesses about tariff impacts and shared its results in a 16-page report, released Tuesday. Increased costs, less revenue and lost competitiveness were top of mind.

“We’re not exactly sure what’s going to happen or how things are going to happen, but we’re very concerned,” said Ian Steppler, a grain farmer in Minto.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he’d proceed with implementing 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports beginning March 4.

It follows Trump’s order to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports. The various tariffs are stackable, his administration has said.

Aluminum and steel tariffs are slated to begin March 12.

Steppler is bracing for U.S. duties to “dramatically” decrease his revenue. And if Canada fires back with retaliatory tariffs, Steppler’s production costs could skyrocket: “we’re going to get hit twice here,” he said.

Seventy-two per cent of Manitoba businesses are preparing for increased costs or reduced revenue, the Chamber poll found.

Tariff survey

Nearly half — 44 per cent — expect to lose customers and competitiveness. Supply chain delays and other operational challenges are a fear for 35 per cent; 22 per cent expect to conduct layoffs or hiring freezes.

Business worries stem from both U.S. tariff threats and Canada’s proposed retaliation, said Loren Remillard, the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce’s president.

Canada threatened 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. imports earlier this month, before the Trump administration paused its tariff plan.

Trump has repeatedly claimed the U.S. is in a trade deficit with Canada. However, those surveyed by the Winnipeg Chamber were more likely to rely on U.S. imports than exports.

Nearly 80 per cent of businesses relied on imports for operations; less than one-third, 31 per cent, reported exporting goods and services south of the border.

A “small but significant” portion of businesses (12 per cent) get more than half their revenue from the U.S., the report reads. Fifty-three per cent said less than 10 per cent of their revenue comes from U.S. trade.

“There’s a hesitation to move forward strategically when there’s so much uncertainty,” Remillard said. “When the nature of the challenge is changing by the hour, it makes it very difficult for these businesses to plan how they will adapt.”

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Forty-three per cent of surveyed businesses hadn’t yet acted in response to tariffs. (The survey ran from Feb. 2 to 19.)

Steppler hasn’t waited. The long-time farmer created a worst-case scenario contingency plan with lenders; he’s inking contracts for October and November, and he’s pre-buying fertilizer.

Roughly one-third of survey respondents have begun sourcing materials outside the United States. One quarter have advocated for policy and 17 per cent have absorbed costs.

“I think every option is on the table for companies,” Remillard said.

Local businesses want stronger advocacy with U.S. officials, targeted tax relief and faster trade dispute resolution mechanisms, per the report.

Government, businesses and associations continue to meet and lobby, pushing for a trade war diversion.

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Ben Carr, MP for Winnipeg South Centre, was the latest Manitoban to visit Capitol Hill. He’d lined up meetings Tuesday and Wednesday with senators from Idaho, California, South Dakota and Montana to “help compound the Team Canada narrative.”

Manitoba’s energy, agriculture and defence sectors would be highlighted, Carr said.

He arrived independently but landed among a score of Canadian politicians, including Canada’s public safety, transportation and agriculture ministers. There was a “Canada Day on the Hill” event to spotlight border security and trade.

Now is the time to review interprovincial trade barriers, invest in productivity and diversify export markets, Remillard said.

Most of the Chamber’s survey respondents — 88 per cent — had less than 100 employees. Just two businesses had more than 500 staff.

Respondents’ opinions on how long they could sustain under U.S. tariffs varied. Forty-two per cent said they could sustain operations for more than 18 months. That could change greatly based on Canadian and American government actions, Remillard noted.

The Trump administration has announced a reciprocal tariff plan, causing further uncertainty, Remillard added.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com

Gabrielle Piché
Reporter

Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle.

Every piece of reporting Gabrielle produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.