Jets make the playoffs if they get ‘Good Buff’ and better goaltending

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/09/2017 (2934 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Steve Lyons: Hello there. It’s been a while since we’ve chatted like this. Last time, it was summer and we were trying to avoid talking about hockey. Now, it’s starting to look a lot like winter and — well, hockey season started Monday night at the downtown rink.

Hope you enjoyed that extra-long vacation your overly-generous boss granted you.

So, lots of Jets talks over the last couple of weeks, with the team opening training camp. Expectations are heightened this season and most folks I chat with are anticipating a big year from the team. They think the addition of goaltender Steve Mason will help; they cite the return of a healthy Tyler Myers and Toby Enstrom on defence, along with the signing of Dmitry Kulikov; they anticipate Patrik Laine will score even more goals than the 36 he banged home as a rookie. All these points and many more will determine how the Jets do this season, but for me it always gets back to one guy with this club — what kind of season Dustin Byfuglien has will go a long way in determining what kind of season the Jets have.

Big Buff seems to be the ‘driver’ of this team. We’re told he’s the man in the locker-room; he’s the guy with the Stanley Cup ring; he’s got an ‘A’ on his jersey; and he’s the guy with the biggest salary — $7.6 million a season. When he’s forcing the play and being the dominant big man on the ice, this team seems to respond.

But Buff is also the guy who led the league in minor penalties last season (40); can make some incredibly sloppy plays in his own end; and put himself out of position trying to make an unwise play in the offensive zone. It’s the old ‘Good Buff/Bad Buff’ we’ve seen for the last six seasons.

Now I know it’s early here, and Monday was just the first pre-season game, but I’m not crazy with how Buff has started this new season where there is no longer room for excuses.

In his opening remarks to the media on the weekend, Buff chatted a lot about his summer fishing — prompted by a member of the media by the way (sheesh); a little bit about sticking to the game plan and also how everyone just needs to do their own job.

What did you think of Monday’s opening night performance? What I noticed was an early penalty by Buff in the offensive zone when he needlessly tugged on a Wild defender; a terrific pass to set up Laine’s PP goal; and a terrible turnover in his own zone with just over four minutes left in the game that resulted in Logan Stanley having to sprawl across the slot to block a shot. I also noticed a point in the game where Jets head coach Paul Maurice went down the bench to address something with Byfuglien and the d-man was chirping some sort of explanation. I’m sure PoMo knows he needs to have Buff ‘stick to the game plan’ and perhaps this will finally be a season of equal accountability.

Paul Wiecek: Hmmm. I don’t agree with your thesis that ‘As Buff goes, so go the Jets.’

The Jets missed the playoffs last season not because of what Buff did — or didn’t do. They missed the playoffs because they got lousy goaltending. And that will be the same scenario in play this year — the Jets are going to score a ton of goals but will once again live or die on whether they get competitive goaltending.

If Mason can post the numbers he did earlier in his career — he posted a save percentage of .928 as recently as 2014-15 — I think the Jets are a playoff team. But if Mason does what he did last year in Philly and dribbles a .908, I think the Jets miss the post-season for the sixth time in seven years.

I really think it’s that simple for the Jets this season. If there’s a caveat, I suppose it’s Connor Hellebuyck. I guess there’s a scenario where Mason under-performs and Hellebuyck rises to the occasion and seizes the No. 1 job. But everything we’ve seen out of Hellebuyck the last two seasons is he does his best work in the backup role, not the starter’s.

Look, would it help if the Jets played a better defensive game and stopped taking so many penalties and had better special teams? Of course — all of that needs to happen if this team is ever going to become a bonafide championship contender. But you build a championship team up the middle — centre, defencemen and goaltenders. The Jets have quality centremen, including one of the best in the game in Mark Scheifele. And I’d argue the Jets top two pairings are collectively as good as any in the league. But goaltending has been the question mark on this team since Day 1 and it remains so today.

I’m not convinced Mason is the solution to that problem, but I stand to be corrected. But what couldn’t be more clear — to me at least — is that this Jets season rests on Mason’s ability to answer the Jets longstanding goaltending question.

As for Monday night, it was an awful hockey game that was utterly meaningless. I’d caution against drawing any meaningful inferences out of anything the Jets — or Buff — showed on the ice in that one.

Steve: A couple of times since the Jets returned, we’ve heard how the team really needs to play a better game defensively so they can see what kind of goalie they actually have. They played better defensively two seasons ago and Ondrej Pavelec was brilliant down the stretch and they made the playoffs. You and I have debated this here and in person — I think the Jets lousy save percentage is because of lousy defense; not necessarily lousy goaltending.

So, what’s your prediction?

I already went out on the limb once this year when I suggested this was the season the Bombers would finally win another Grey Cup — I’m sticking with that prediction by the way — so why not go all in and suggest, this is the season the Winnipeg Jets will… no, not win the Stanley Cup.. but make it into the playoffs. That’s right — the Jets will make the playoffs this season. Frankly, there’s no reason they shouldn’t if you look at the team on paper and assess the skill level of their players compared to other teams.

The Jets were tied with Chicago for most wins in the Central last season — 19 — and I’m not so sure the Central is full of powerhouse teams anymore.

Paul: If you believe the Jets are a playoff team this season than you believe the following: That they can finish higher in the Central Division than at least two teams, plus higher than the San Jose Sharks in the Pacific Division.

So let’s break that down. The Colorado Avalanche is a tire fire so that’s easy — there’s one team in the Central the Jets clearly finish ahead of. But who’s the second team? Nashville will regress, I think — Pekka Rinne just isn’t that good over the long haul and the loss of Ryan Ellis really stings — but the Preds are the defending Western Conference champs for a reason. The last time the Chicago Blackhawks were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, they won the Stanley Cup the next season. And the Dallas Stars had a world-class off-season and are many wise guy’s pick to win it all this year.

And so that leaves, I think, the Jets battling the St. Louis Blues, the Minnesota Wild and the Sharks — I think Edmonton, Anaheim and Calgary finish top 3 in the Pacific for fun — for two wild card spots.

All of which brings me back to where we started: If Mason provides credible goaltending, I think the the Jets are a playoff team. But man, that’s a huge ‘if.’

Steve: I think the Central has a number of teams with some aging stars while the Jets are a team with a number of blossoming stars. If they can cut down on the dumb penalties; kill penalties a bit better and sure have a little more consistent goaltending, I think they stack up against any team in the Central. Heck, if they do as Buff said — buy in and stick to the game plan — the Jets could finish ahead of all the teams in the Central. But yeah, that’s a big ‘if.’

The Bombers on the other hand look to be a lock now to make the playoffs and the way it’s now looking in the West, it appears the local supporters might get to take in a home playoff game this November. And just yesterday, I switched your November schedule just in case the Bombers are playing in the Grey Cup — Nov. 26 in Ottawa.

Right now, the Bombers and Stamps are clearly the two best teams in the league. The Eskimos are becoming the train wreck I figured they would be this season; the B.C. Lions don’t look to have a capable QB after having the best 1-2 tandem just a few weeks ago; and not one team in the East is of any significance. The Roughriders are playing well and may yet rise to third in the West.

Paul: Lots to like about the Bombers. What’s impressed me most since a sloppy start to the season is the way this team “comes again” during games, digging deeper after a lead change or a costly turnover to take control back.

Those were exactly the kinds of moment’s that used to be the Bombers undoing — they’d fold like a cheap card table at the first sign of adversity. Offence, defence, special teams — when the going got tough, you used to be able to count on the Bombers to fold.

But it has been very much the opposite this season. And again, it’s been offence, defence and special teams all rising to the occasion when things got rough this year. You not only win a lot of games playing like that — it’s incredibly deflating for an opponent to play a team like that — but you also build identity and character in those moments of triumph over adversity. And it’s that latter quality that can take you a long way in the playoffs.

Having said all that, the path to the Grey Cup once again looks like it goes through Calgary and that’s a nightmare for Bombers fans if it does. The Bombers have lost 17 of their last 18 games against Calgary, which is a complete joke. And the only thing funnier than that is the fact Winnipeg has lost nine in a row to Calgary at home.

So until the Bombers can prove to me they can beat Calgary — at home, on the road or on Mars — I think a Grey Cup drought that dates back to 1990 continues.

Steve: The Bombers play their final game of the season at Calgary on Nov. 3. They would need to keep winning and have the Stamps actually lose another game this year to set the stage for a first-place showdown in that game. Heady stuff for the Blue and Gold — best team we’ve seen in these parts for a long long time.

Paul: Kyle Walters gets full credit for this team in my books. He’s drafted well and turned what used to be Winnipeg’s weakness — its Canadian talent — into arguably it’s biggest strength. He’s traded well — that deal that sent Drew Willy to Toronto for TJ Heath and what turned out to be a first overall pick is one of the CFL’s all-time greatest fleecings and he got Matt Nichols from Edmonton in exchange for a conditional seventh round pick. His work in free agency — Justin Medlock, Andrew Harris, Chris Randle, Stanley Bryant, etc — is as good as any GM in the league. And then on top of all that, he completely rebuilt the Bombers scouting department, which gets credit for all kinds of key signings, from Darvin Adams to Travis Bond to Jackson Jeffcoat.

And all that out of the ashes of the Joe Mack regime. Just very, very well done.

Steve: Yeah, I have been impressed with the re-stocking of Canadian talent but I think I’m even more impressed with what the team has done to improve its import players. I was chatting with Wade Miller about that late last season and he was explaining to me how that really takes a lot of time and effort — getting guys on the neg list; pursuing them and then getting them to sign here. It was always the steady flow of high-quality imports brought to town by the likes of Paul Jones and Brendan Tamam that led to successful teams here back in the day. Ironically, Mack was hired because of his knack for getting good Americans — he failed there as badly as he failed at drafting good Canadians.

How about that crazy night at Shaw Park Monday night/Tuesday morning? Can you imagine pouring on to the field to celebrate a championship only to be advised that the ump had called a balk? Wow! The story is so unusual Mike McIntyre’s yarn on the game and his tweets have been picked up by Deadspin and Sports Illustrated.

Paul: Some of my fondest memories working in sports were playoff baseball the four seasons I covered the Goldeyes full-time.

I love the whole minor league aesthetic — it’s refreshing to interview athletes who actually have the same worries about paying the bills as the rest of us. And there is a pure love of sport that emerges in September in a league where a lot of guys are making a thousand bucks a month.

Why do they do it, riding those buses all summer long for pennies an hour? For moments of unadulterated joy — and stunning heartbreak — like Monday night at Shaw Park.

McIntyre, by the way, does a great job covering that team. That beat is all about the players, not the play, and Mike gets that.

Steve: While we’re on the subject of baseball, your favorite Blue Jay is likely playing his finals games at home this week. Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre, Joey Bats will likely take his final swings in front of the home crowd — say what you will about the guy, but he deserves a huge ovation. The Jays made it to the ALCS the last two seasons; huge crowds have returned to the former SkyDome and Joey Bats played a major role in all of that.

I see your Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 and making another push to catch the Red Sox in the AL East. Interested yet?

A few weeks ago, it looked like the Dodgers were going to be unbeatable and roll to a championship. Man, talk about going into the tank. On Aug. 25, they were 91-36; since then they have gone 5-18 going into Tuesday’s action — and they’ve actually now won four in a row. Craziest season ever by a team. Lots to like about the upcoming post-season.

Paul: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — the Yankees have good enough starting pitching to make the playoffs but not nearly good enough to actually do anything once they’re there.

The Cleveland Indians are the team to beat. The best thing that could have happened to them is having their 22-game win streak broken. The last thing you’d want to do is carry something like that into the playoffs, with everyone wondering when the wheels will come off.

Cleveland was denied by the Cubs in Game 7 of the World Series last year. I’m not sure anyone will deny them again. But I still wouldn’t count out the Cubs.

Steve: The Cubs? Come on — two years in a row after not winning for over a century. I like the Nationals in the NL and Cleveland in the AL. And then the Indians to win it all — finally, we agree on something today!

So, I have to get back to my real work right away but before we go — and this is not sports related at all; why is it snow removal folks in this town always want to get paid in advance of their work? What other service do I use — except cable; and don’t get me started on that — where I need to pay you before the work is completed? Perhaps a deposit — but the whole month in advance?! And a five-month contract to boot. You don’t even pay for a tow truck to boost your car before it’s actually been boosted — ya know what I mean.

Paul: I will never understand why you pay a guy to shovel your snow and then a trainer to help you exercise.

Wiecek men do not hire tradesmen of any kind. We do the job ourselves, whether we’re qualified or not. I, for instance, have been showering in the basement for the last week while I try to figure out how to fix a seized tap in the tub upstairs.

It could be awhile. But I’m okay with that.

Steve: I have a very good friend who is a plumber — let me know if you change your mind, or hurt yourself again.