Excitement ramps up two months into campaign

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This article was published 28/09/2015 (3689 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

We are now near the two-month mark in the federal election campaign.

Think about that for a moment.

We’ve had 56 days of federal campaigning. That’s remarkable. The only thing more remarkable is we’ve still got three weeks left to go.

In Week 8, the three-way race to form government has begun to take on new and exciting features: a Conservative campaign that is demonstrating its resilience; a Liberal campaign that is demonstrating the rewards of a risky strategy; and an NDP campaign that is showing subtle signs of running out of gas.

Our panel of political insiders dissects the week that was:

This is not necessarily the campaign result Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wanted. But it’s probably the result he expected.

Big Blue, our Conservative insider, said when the Tories decided to launch the country into a 77-day campaign, Harper wanted to accomplish two things: put the brakes on third-party ads attacking the Conservative government, and set up a lengthy campaign in which the considerable Tory war chest would be able to outspend the opposition.

Big Blue said the strategy has been mostly successful, even though it’s clear the Tory plan was to be leading the race at this stage. If the polls are to be believed, that part of the strategy has been unrealized.

“Was this the result (Harper) wanted at this stage?” Big Blue said. “I don’t think that it is. Is it the result he and his team expected? You’d probably have to ask him to be sure.”

That leaves Harper and the Conservatives on uncertain ground heading into the final three weeks of the campaign. Big Blue said messaging over the next week or so will be critically important, as will Harper’s performance in the foreign affairs debate to be held tonight.

What is clear now is the early difficulties faced by the Conservatives have passed, Blue said, and the trial of suspended Sen. Mike Duffy on fraud and bribery charges has become an afterthought for voters.

Big Blue said this is one area in which the lengthy campaign has been a success for the Tories. Both the media and voters seemed to have tired of dwelling on Duffy and the tawdry details of political manipulation within the Prime Minister’s Office.

Yes, it made for some tense moments in August, but the worst has certainly passed, Big Blue said.

“I’m pretty nervous right now, but everybody in every party should be at this stage in the campaign,” Blue said. “I’ve always said that elections aren’t won, they’re lost.

“And we’re going into the part of the campaign where any mistake could lose the election.”

It was a week of risk-reward for Justin Trudeau, according to True Grit, our Liberal party insider.

Having successfully navigated the French-language debate, the Liberal leader stunned campaign watchers by raising two issues that resonate deeply with the Conservative base.

First, it was a Liberal pledge to cancel the multibillion-dollar purchase of new F-35 fighter jets. And, over the weekend, Trudeau said he would repeal mandatory minimum sentencing for some Criminal Code offences. Trudeau would not say which ones, but he has talked in the past about reducing sentences for possession of small amounts of marijuana.

The Conservative campaign seized on both policy positions with a lusty relish bordering on glee.

“(Trudeau’s) only priority is to change the law to allow the sale of marijuana in corner stores,” Tory candidate Julian Fantino said Sunday. “Well, that won’t work.”

True Grit agreed bringing up both issues — neither of which has been part of the election narrative — is a bit unusual. However, there is a method to this madness.

“Trudeau is trying to tap into the ‘change population,’ ” True Grit said. “There are a majority of people in the country who want a change in federal government. A majority government is within reach for the party that can harness the anti-Tory government vote. That’s what this is all about.”

As the campaign unfolds, and the three-way race to form government holds its pattern, it is becoming increasingly clear there are great benefits for any single party to capture the anti-Conservative vote. Grit argued Trudeau is only demonstrating that before he can battle Harper and the Conservatives head to head, he has to win the battle for the anti-Harper vote.

Sound strategy, but it does come with risk, Grit said. Trudeau will have to ensure he does not play into the Conservatives’ “just not ready” ad message that has dogged Trudeau throughout this campaign.

“There is some risk, but it’s a reasonable risk at this point,” Grit said.

If Liberal fortunes rose in the past week, there was modest slippage for the New Democrats, according to NDP insider Orange Crush.

In most national opinion polls, the NDP seemed to have fallen out of its front-running position. The Liberals seemed to have gained the most, with one poll published later in the week showing a significant surge in Conservative support.

“Worry is wasted emotion at this stage when there are many things that can be done to change this trend,” Orange Crush said. “One of those things has got to be doing more to define what a vote for the Liberals really means.”

The NDP believe the Liberals are trying to push too many buttons at once, signalling policies in the middle-right that appeal to soft Tories, and pushing others that are further left to cultivate some support among New Democrats. However, Orange Crush said, some focused advertising and a good performance in the foreign policy debate tonight could do a lot to define the inherent conflicts in the Grit campaign.

Crush said Trudeau’s decision to make fighter jets and mandatory sentencing election issues could easily backfire, and damage Liberal aspirations to become the principal anti-Tory challenger. “Strategically, I’m just not sure that’s where I would want to be going right now,” Crush said.

The reality for both the Liberals and NDP is that over this next week, voters will begin to tune into the campaign with a renewed focus. That means in a week or so, many voters who are looking for a change in federal government will be ready to choose their champion.

“We’ll really see some movement over the next week,” Orange Crush said. “I think if you ask me these questions next week, we’ll be able to see that voters are starting to make an emotional attachment to one party or the other. That’s when the anti-Harper voters will choose their horse.”

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.