Poilievre’s unwillingness to change has Carney’s Liberals on brink of majority

Opinion

Canada’s two main poll trackers are projecting remarkably similar outcomes for Monday’s federal election: a clear Liberal win, albeit one closer to a razor-thin majority than a landslide.

Both Canada338 and the CBC Poll Tracker predict the Liberals could win around 186 to 190 seats, comfortably clearing the 172-seat threshold needed to form a majority in the House of Commons.

The Liberals have a four-point national lead over the Conservatives, slightly less than the six to seven-point lead the party held earlier in the campaign, according to both poll trackers. More importantly for the Liberals, they continue to lead in the key battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even British Columbia.

In Ontario, the province that often decides elections, the Liberals are out front by a margin of six to 10 points depending on the poll. That’s no small thing. And it’s not just suburban Toronto or the GTA where they’re making gains.

In a stunning twist, some polling suggests Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre himself could be at risk of losing his seat in Carleton — a once-safe riding on the outskirts of Ottawa where the Liberal ground game has reportedly gone into overdrive.

The Liberals could win as many as 80 to 85 of Ontario’s 122 seats and just over half of Quebec’s 78 seats, according to the poll trackers.

Why? Because while Liberal Leader Mark Carney has spent the last month reassuring Canadians with a message of competence, economic prudence, and middle-of-the-road stability, Poilievre has remained firmly stuck in campaign mode — one that’s more suited to a Trump rally than to a Canadian federal election.

The Poilievre campaign bet big on anger and frustration. And while that may have worked for a core slice of his base, it didn’t resonate widely. Especially not in Ontario, where voters are traditionally wary of firebrands and ideologues.

His inability — or unwillingness — to shed the attack-dog persona may have won him headlines, but it cost him credibility where it mattered most.

And the Liberals have seized that opening.

While the focus of the campaign over the past week or so may have shifted back slightly to affordability, crime and Canada’s housing crisis — which have been the centrepieces of the Conservative campaign — it hasn’t been enough to close the gap between the two leading parties.

Under Carney, the Liberals have run a far more focused, issues-driven campaign than they have in years. The former Bank of Canada governor has leaned into his economic credentials, assuring voters that he’s the steady hand Canada needs in uncertain times. And while he’s taken jabs at Poilievre along the way, his tone has been measured — his debates grounded in facts and policy.

It’s paid off.

In short, the math works in favour of the Liberals. And with a few days left in the campaign, the momentum is firmly on their side.

The NDP, meanwhile, hasn’t been able to blunt the Liberal surge. Jagmeet Singh’s party is still polling below 10 per cent nationally and is poised to lose a chunk of the seats it held in the last Parliament. It may even lose official party status.

The strategic voting narrative has been playing squarely in the Liberals’ favour since the beginning of the campaign, especially in urban ridings where progressives are looking for the surest path to stop Poilievre.

While the polls could tighten slightly by Monday, it’s hard to see a scenario now where the Conservatives catch up. In fact, some of the seat projections suggest they could win fewer seats than in 2021, a disastrous result for a party that believed — not long ago — this was their election to lose.

Instead, they’re watching it slip away, one riding at a time.

The irony is Poilievre had a real opportunity this year. With former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepping aside and Canadians grappling with affordability issues, crime, and global instability, voters were open to change. But change only sells if it comes with a credible alternative — and Poilievre’s refusal to soften his image or broaden his appeal has cost him dearly.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

Head Start

Weekday Mornings

A quick glance at the news for the upcoming day.

Sign up for Head Start

Sign Up

I agree to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies, and CASL agreement.

The Conservatives built a movement. The Liberals built a campaign.

In politics, that’s the difference between barking from the sidelines and actually getting to govern. The Liberals, for all their flaws and missteps in the past, seem to have remembered that Canadians don’t just vote against something — they vote for something, too.

This time, they may be voting for calm over chaos, policy over punchlines and leadership over theatrics.

And that, more than anything, explains why Canadians could wake up Tuesday morning with a Liberal majority in Ottawa — and a Conservative party facing a bitter reckoning of its own.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.