Change, hope on the Rock

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This article was published 02/12/2015 (3785 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Premier Paul Davis was soundly defeated in Monday’s election in Newfoundland and Labrador, losing more than 20 seats in a Liberal landslide that ended 12 years of Progressive Conservative rule.

As bad as the news was for the Tories, the outcome could have been worse.

After Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took all seven of the province’s federal ridings last month, Liberal Leader Dwight Ball and his resurgent provincial party seemed to be on track to match the feat.

Ball had a commanding lead in opinion polls — one survey released mid-campaign put the Liberals 45 percentage points ahead of the PCs — and the only question was whether any of his opponents would be left standing.

Ball, a 58-year-old pharmacist-turned-entrepreneur from Deer Lake who became Liberal leader in 2013, carried 31 of 40 seats — an impressive victory for a party that won only six ridings in the 2011 election (when Ball won his own riding by just 68 votes).

Now the PCs, an unstoppable force under former premier Danny Williams, are clinging to the wreckage.

Davis was re-elected — a surprise in itself, as one poll had him trailing in his riding — and will lead a seven-member opposition. A former police officer who became premier last year, he said he would stay on as leader to help rebuild the Tories, so the party can “fight another day.”

The New Democrats, winners of five seats in 2011, emerged with only two, both in St. John’s. Leader Earle McCurdy, a retired union official, lost his bid for a seat in the house of assembly.

Ball’s decisive victory has wider ramifications. It eradicated Canada’s last government bearing the Conservative name. Liberals now govern every province east of Manitoba.

With Liberals in power in both St. John’s and Ottawa for the first time since 2003, the stage is set for an end to the acrimony that marked Newfoundland relations with the former Harper government. “Looking forward to working with you,” Trudeau tweeted shortly after Ball was declared the winner.

The new relationship, however, may be tested quickly. Davis and former prime minister Stephen Harper were at odds over a promised $400-million fund to compensate for possible losses to fishers under the free trade deal negotiated with the European Union.

Trudeau has signalled he supports the province’s position that compensation should be paid even if the fishing industry cannot link future losses to the free trade deal. Ball will be expected to ensure the feds follow though.

“I don’t care who the prime minister is,” the premier-designate declared during the campaign, “I will fight for what’s right for Newfoundland and Labrador.”

A change of government does little to change the gritty realities that face Newfoundland and Labrador. As the price of oil tanked, the offshore petroleum revenues that lifted the province from “have not” status under the combative Williams evaporated. The current budget deficit tops $1 billion.

Ball coasted through the campaign by adopting Trudeau’s mantra of hope and change. He promised to sell government-owned land and buildings, cut wasteful spending and boost the economy through diversification, but offered few details. And like his federal counterpart, he’s planning to add to the deficit — by $270 million next year alone — before trying to balance the books.

One Liberal proposal will cost the government an estimated $180 million in much-needed revenue: Ball has vowed to rescind his predecessor’s plan to increase the harmonized sales tax by two percentage points, keeping it at 13 per cent.

Davis attacked the Liberal platform as “a fantasy plan” and issued ominous warnings of public-sector job cuts under a Liberal government. McCurdy, meanwhile, dismissed Ball’s diversification strategy as akin to “a letter to Santa.”

Voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, eager for change, appear to be ready to believe in miracles.

 

Dean Jobb, a journalism professor at the University of King’s College in Halifax, is the author of Empire of Deception. His website is www.deanjobb.com.