Predictions tempting, but still risky

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 02/04/2016 (3483 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

This past week, I agreed to participate in a panel discussion on CTV’s Question Period, a weekend show that offers a wrap-up of all things political. CTV wanted to talk about the Manitoba election.

After describing the ebb and flow of the campaign, host Richard Madden (a former CTV reporter in Winnipeg) asked if I would provide my prediction on the election’s outcome. It was the last question, but the one I was dreading the most.

For the record, even though journalists possess more information than average voters, it’s never a good idea to make predictions with three weeks left in the campaign. Predictions that far in advance serve only to make journalists look as if they have some stake in the outcome, which we do not. And if you’re wrong — which is the norm — you look like an idiot.

With all that weighing on my conscience, I told Madden that at this stage in the campaign, it appears Manitoba will elect a Progressive Conservative government of some type. Pre-writ polls strongly suggested this. At midway in the campaign, taking into account all the visible evidence combined with voter identification data and some party-polling information, there is no reason to believe the Tories have lost their front-runner status.

I wouldn’t get any more specific than that. There are too many other factors in play right now that will determine whether the Tories win a huge majority, a slim majority or possibly a minority.

First, some observations about the Tory campaign to date.

Although he got off to a rough start on the opening day of the election — making a regrettable comment about how there were no “sacred cows” in government services — Tory Leader Brian Pallister has been tidy and effective in delivering his platform.

Pallister has done a reasonable job fending off allegations by the NDP that he will gut government services. There will be lingering concerns on this point, given the fact the foundation he uses for his fiscal plan — sustain core services, find efficiencies and eliminate waste, maintain current levels of infrastructure spending and roll back the PST to seven per cent — is still a bit questionable.

The Tories are well-aware voters are profoundly skeptical about austerity agendas, preferring governments that are willing to borrow and spend to preserve core services and improve infrastructure. The DNA of the PC party requires, however, some commitment to fiscal prudence to placate its core supporters.

For Tories, convincing voters they can bring the budget back into balance without resorting to severe austerity is a delicate political message — one that would be very difficult to manage in a campaign that was a true two- or three-horse race. But that is not this election.

Again, all visible and backroom data indicate that at the midway point, neither the Liberals nor the NDP have been able, on their own, to close the gap with the Tories.

NDP Leader Greg Selinger has been decent in his performance, but he cannot escape the fact Manitobans are weary after 17 years of NDP governing. The Liberals, meanwhile, are a hot mess of a campaign. They have lost candidates to scandal and sloppiness, and their announcements suffer from a deficit of logic.

For all those reasons, it seems likely undecided voters, thought to be as high as one in four voters, have yet to make a final decision.

Many insiders from all three parties believe the gross majority of those undecided voters will eventually pin their hopes to one of either the NDP or Liberals. Polls show the PC party is the least likely to get any support from the ranks of the undecided, a factor that means Pallister will likely see his party enter election day with the support of about 43 per cent of committed voters, the same level of support it collected in the 2011 election.

If you accept the theory that the Tories will not significantly increase their total support, then there are three scenarios that will unfold on election day.

If the Liberals and NDP remain neck and neck in the race for second place, Tory support becomes more efficient and the size of its majority will soar.

If one of the NDP or Liberals becomes the clear second choice of voters, the Tory majority will shrink.

Should one of those parties somehow claw its way back into the 30 per cent-plus range in popular support, the Tories could be looking at a minority. That is effectively the scenario that played out in 1988, when a surge in Liberal support and a complete collapse for the NDP eroded the lead held by the Progressive Conservatives. The result was a somewhat unforeseen, and highly unsatisfying, Tory minority.

When you take all that information into account, there is only one inescapable conclusion.

It’s still a bad idea to offer a precise prediction three weeks out from election day. So I won’t. Seriously.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.