George Springer. Vlad Guerrero. The Blue Jays are soaring, but their blueprint for success is incomplete

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This article was published 09/08/2021 (1565 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and there are a lot of reasons for a mid-season turnaround that has raised expectations and put a wild-card spot well within striking distance.

The starting rotation is much better following the addition of José Berríos and the emergence of rookie Alek Manoah. The lineup remains one of the best in the majors and, at least recently, the bullpen has been good enough to get the job done.

Dating back to June 19, the Jays — at 27-15 (.643) — have the best winning percentage in the American League. The play has been even stronger of late after going 9-2 in the first homestand at the Rogers Centre since September of 2019.

Entering Monday’s off-day, the Jays’ deficit for each of the two wild-card spots was down to three games. With Seattle slipping 5 1/2 games back, this is shaping up to be a four-team race among the Jays, Yankees, A’s and Red Sox, with the Tampa Bay Rays still holding firm atop the AL East.

That’s not a bad spot for the Jays to be in, especially considering their sluggish first half. Prior to the streak that began in mid-June, they were two games under .500. When they take the field Tuesday night in Anaheim against the Angels, they’ll be a season-high 10 above that mark.

To help explain how the Jays got here, and some of the obstacles they still must overcome down the stretch, here’s a look at nine key storylines with the stats to back them up:

Starting rotation

7-0, 2.25 ERA since July 30

It doesn’t get much better than this. Except for Hyun-Jin Ryu’s dud on Sunday, the rotation has been almost flawless. Their 2.25 ERA since the trade deadline is the best in the majors, no team has thrown more innings over that span, and this group is tops in FanGraphs wins above replacement (WAR) at 1.9. Barring good health, the only uncertainty is who gets picked to stick around as the fifth starter, Steven Matz or Ross Stripling.

“Watching those guys do what they’ve been doing so far has motivated me to go out there and do my work, put in my 100 per cent effort and try to get every win we can get,” Berríos said after his last start.

Strength of schedule

Fifth-easiest the rest of the way

In late May, we pointed out the Jays had the fourth-toughest schedule through the first quarter of the season. It was also mentioned that the degree of difficulty was set to decrease starting June 18 and would remain low. That’s important to note because the Jays’ turnaround began at almost the exact same time. They got within striking distance by beating up on bad teams, and that trend should continue. The Jays have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule based on win percentages, which includes 22 games against the Orioles, Twins, Tigers and a Nationals team that sold off most of its top players.

Bullpen

17 high-leverage plate appearances since the start of July

Full credit to MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, who wrote Monday afternoon that since the start of July the Jays’ relievers have faced the fewest high-leverage plate appearances in baseball, and it’s not even close. Kansas City sits a distant second at 48, while Cincinnati leads all teams at 122. One way to hide the issues in the bullpen is by winning games by wide margins, which is something the Jays have been doing a lot of lately.

“This has been the story of our bullpen. It was really good at the beginning, then people got hurt and a lot of guys were not supposed to be in the spots they were pitching and that’s when we struggled,” manager Charlie Montoyo said recently. “Now, with the moves that we made, it has gotten better, but the key has been our starting rotation and going deep into games. When your bullpen only has to cover three innings a night, that’s great.”

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

5.3 fWAR

Guerrero was on pace earlier this year to become the first primary first baseman to surpass 8 in FanGraphs WAR in one season. His production has slowed since the all-star break, but he remains the leader among all hitters at 5.3 — which is a fancy way of saying he’s the game’s most valuable batter, and if not for two-way star Shohei Ohtani he’d be a lock for MVP. Guerrero homered Sunday, but one thing to keep an eye on is that he’s hitting .262 with an .888 on-base plus slugging mark since July 16. That’s still good, but well below the .332 and 1.089 he put up over the first 87 games.

“It’s a long season, 162 games, and whoever says they’re feeling 100 per cent after all of those games, they’re definitely lying,” Guerrero said through an interpreter at the start of the recent Red Sox series. “But I’m feeling good. Not 100 per cent, but that’s just part of the entire season.”

Adam Cimber

1 ER in 15 innings

One earned run. That’s all Cimber has allowed since arriving from Miami at the start of July. As noted above, the Jays haven’t required much heavy lifting from the bullpen, which is a good thing because it means Cimber can pitch an even higher percentage of important innings. He has worked on back-to-back days three times already for the Jays, and there was a stretch during the recent homestand when he either appeared or warmed up in five of six. The submariner has a rubber arm, and the Jays intend to get the most out of it down the stretch. And oh, by the way, Cimber hasn’t allowed a home run since Aug. 12, 2020, a span of 55 innings.

“He’s that guy that a manager loves, pitching every day,” Montoyo said. “That’s just who he is.”

Fielding

Minus-13 outs above average

Poor fielding has plagued the Jays for a long time and it’s not going to be fixed any time soon. Their minus-13 OAA ranks 23rd in the majors with the Red Sox, Angels, Tigers and lowly Orioles the only AL teams with lower scores. The biggest culprit is Lourdes Gurriel Jr., last among all outfielders at minus-8. Shortstop Bo Bichette is even lower (-9), but it’s worth noting he’s tied with Boston’s Xander Bogaerts and ranks ahead of Philadelphia’s Didi Gregorius and Milwaukee’s Luis Urias at his position. One possible solution for the outfield would be a defensive alignment of Corey Dickerson, George Springer and Randal Grichuk to protect leads late in games.

Offence

.214 average, .616 OPS in late and close situations

It’s hard to criticize this lineup because the Jays are one of the top run-producing teams, but they’ve strugged during the seventh inning or later when they’re tied, ahead by one, or at least have the tying run on deck: .214 average, .616 OPS and just 35 extra-base hits in 529 plate appearances. Beyond the bullpen, the lack of late xecution is why the Jays are 17-26 in games decided by two runs or fewer. Having a healthy Springer should help improve these numbers, as evidenced by Sunday’s three-run homer to cap an eighth-inning comeback win over Boston.

“It’s a good lineup,” Montoyo said. “The only thing that we’re missing … late innings, for some reason, we don’t come back in many games for being such a good lineup. You know what’s funny? A lot of times you’re 2-for-3, it’s tough to go 4-for-5 and stuff like that. We get all the hits early, it’s tough to have guys go 4-for-4 and 3-for-4. That’s part of it.”

George Springer

14 homers in 43 games

The $150-million (U.S.) man has been earning his salary since coming off the injured list. He’s averaging a home run every three games, a 52-homer pace, and has been named AL player of the week twice in a row. The Jays will ride this streak for as long as it lasts.

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“It’s been hectic, it’s been crazy,” Springer said of his season. “Didn’t really start the way I’d like it to start, obviously getting hurt, but at this point it’s about staying in the moment.”

Bo Bichette

86 runs scored

With Guerrero, Marcus Semien and now Springer stealing most of the attention, Bichette likely doesn’t get enough credit for how well he has performed. The all-star shortstop might not have been happy with his performance earlier in the year, but he is tied with Guerrero for the league lead at 86 runs. Yes, that’s a by-product of who is hitting behind him, but Bichette needs to get on base for it to happen and he’s been doing a lot of that. He also ranks first among shortstops in hits (128) and RBIs (77), tied for second in stolen bases (17), third in average (.293) and sixth in OPS (.821).

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca