Kinew seizes the advantage in Tuxedo

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This article was published 29/05/2024 (518 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

TWO rules of politics come to mind in this situation. First, never pass up the opportunity to seize an opportunity. Second, when your opponent is making a mistake, get out of the way.

Both of those rules apply in the context of the upcoming Tuxedo byelection, which will occur three weeks from this Tuesday.

The contest was necessitated by the resignation of former premier and Tuxedo MLA Heather Stefanson, who stepped down on May 6. Under provincial law, a byelection must be held within six months of an MLA’s seat becoming vacant. By selecting June 18 as the date for the Tuxedo byelection, premier Wab Kinew has chosen almost the earliest possible date.

By doing so, Kinew has caught his rivals at a disadvantage. Instead of giving the Tories and Liberals months to organize, sell memberships, hold robust nomination contests, build competent campaign teams, craft credible campaign strategies and fundraise, the premier has caught his party’s rivals flat-footed, with vital campaign time ticking away.

While the Tories and Liberals were stuck on the sidelines, scrambling to nominate candidates, raise money, rent campaign offices and purchase campaign materials, the NDP hit the ground running immediately after the byelection was announced. Within a few hours, bright orange and white campaign signs were being placed on lawns and boulevards in the riding, while party supporters were knocking on doors and identifying residents who support NDP candidate Carla Compton.

Kinew can be proud of the timing and execution of the NDP campaign launch in Tuxedo, but there are other aspects to his party’s strategy that may be of even greater strategic significance.

First, the NDP are currently riding high in public opinion polls, but the honeymoon won’t last forever. By calling the byelection now, Kinew avoids the risk of problems arising for his government over the coming months, and having those problems impact the outcome in Tuxedo.

Second, both the Liberals and Tories are deep in debt after last October’s provincial election. Money spent by them on the Tuxedo byelection will make the fiscal hole the two parties are struggling to overcome even deeper.

Third, the Tories don’t currently have a party leader and won’t elect one until next year. Without that new leader in place, and a clear idea of the policies he or she favours, it will be more difficult to convince Tuxedo voters they should elect another PC MLA.

Fourth, the timing of Stefanson’s resignation really hurts the Tories. Had she delayed her resignation as Tuxedo MLA until next spring, when the new PC leader will be in place, it would have created the potential for the new leader (assuming he or she is not currently in the PC caucus) to run in a Tuxedo byelection next year and, if elected, immediately participate in debates in the Legislative Assembly.

By resigning so soon, however, Stefanson derailed that opportunity. A new Tory leader, if he or she is not already in caucus, will have to convince a current Tory MLA to resign in order to open a seat for the leader to run for in a byelection. Given the dwindling number of safe Tory seats in the province, that might be a risky bet.

Fifth, an NDP win in Tuxedo could cause viable PC leadership contenders to abandon a potential leadership bid because it would suggest the party is in even worse shape than it currently appears, and will require substantial time, money and effort to restore it to a competitive position. If that happens, the party will be deprived, yet again, of the robust leadership contest and renewal that it needs.

Sixth and perhaps most importantly, Kinew’s decision to call the byelection now aggravates deep divisions that remain in the PC party after last fall’s disastrous election campaign.

Losing “fortress Tuxedo” to the NDP could hurt the Tories’ leadership contest, membership sales, candidate recruitment efforts, fundraising and, ultimately, impair the party’s ability to compete in the next provincial election.

By calling the Tuxedo byelection now, Kinew is maximizing his party’s advantage by capitalizing on his rivals’ weak condition and lack of preparedness. It’s a winning strategy that gives the NDP the best chance of success 20 days from now.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross