Stakes low in byelections

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/06/2024 (459 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Sometimes arguments are intense, hard-fought, and exciting not because the stakes are so high, but rather because they’re so low. We can probably all remember a donnybrook of an argument we’ve been in where the point of disagreement was miniscule and the stakes were very low.

Byelection campaigns are kind of like this.

Don’t get me wrong. I adore byelection campaigns. I love to watch the interplay between current provincial issues and the distinctively local themes that make each individual constituency a hidden garden of sorts. They can be remarkable, memorable political events.

The 2022 Kirkfield Park byelection here in Manitoba was a great example. The Tories, NDP and Liberals fought hard for the seat. Big provincial issues featured prominently. But so too did local issues such as staffing at the Grace Hospital, and the Liberals ran a former nurse from the hospital explicitly to leverage this advantage.

Meanwhile, the Tories snagged a high- profile candidate, former Winnipeg councillor and mayoral candidate Kevin Klein. Despite the fact that the PCs were low in the polls, Klein won an exciting squeaker of a race over the NDP’s Logan Oxenham.

So the PCs earned some temporary bragging rights and the NDP had to lick its wounds. But what were the long-term implications?

About 10 months later, the provincial election came along and the NDP swept to power. Among the MLAs elected was Oxenham, running for the NDP again, who won with a respectable margin of victory over Klein. The exciting Kirkfield Park byelection turned out to be a blip in Manitoba’s electoral history.

It’s the fact that the stakes are so low that makes byelections fascinating. Because voters know their ballot won’t make a difference to who actually forms government, they tend to vote sincerely rather than strategically. Someone who would never waste their vote on a Green candidate in a general election might say “what the heck” and vote Green in a byelection because they know doing so won’t affect who is in power.

Byelections are also opportunities for voters to cast their ballots on strictly local issues. With the spotlight on them and them only, it’s the perfect opportunity to demand some local concessions from the parties and candidates. Concern over some ugly power lines, for example, might be subsumed in a raucous general election campaign in which health care and the economy are the dominant provincial issues.

But in a byelection campaign, voters can indulge their local concerns.

Candidates in byelection campaigns are wise to keep this in mind, and keep their ear to the ground for distinct local issues and pet peeves that could move votes.

Low stakes are something to keep in mind when watching the results of the upcoming Tuxedo byelection. Premier Wab Kinew and the NDP are clearly gunning for the seat. They are high in the polls, and former premier Heather Stefanson’s quick departure provided them with the opportunity to steal a very Tory seat.

The Tories have the natural advantage in a seat they’ve never lost, and which has been the home constituency for two PC premiers. All the fundamentals of this well-to-do constituency favour the PCs.

But the party is in a transition stage, gearing up for a leadership race, and is struggling to pay off debt from the provincial campaign. It’s far from an ideal time to be running. As has already been noted in these pages, Stefanson did her party few favours by clearing out so quickly.

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The NDP is in a potentially strong position for another reason: savvy Tuxedo voters who might otherwise turn up their noses at the idea of voting for the NDP might reason that selecting an MLA who will sit in the government rather than the opposition would be a wise move. The idea here is that government MLAs might be in a stronger position to secure benefits for the seat than comparably powerless opposition MLAs. The next provincial election is a long ways away.

If the NDP wins, it will be a major feather in Premier Wab Kinew’s cap. People will rightly admire the party’s strategic savvy and willingness to exploit their advantage. The NDP will have bragging rights for a few weeks. And it will be a major embarrassment for the PCs, taking the wind out of their sails as they head into a leadership campaign that is supposed to generate excitement and breathe life into the party.

But politics is full of highs and lows, great victories and crushing defeats. And life goes on. If the NDP wins in Tuxedo, the seat might clang back into place as a Tory hold in the conditions of the next general election campaign. Or, if Kinew sweeps back into power with another majority government, the NDP incumbent might hang on.

It’s important to keep these stakes in mind when we get the results.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.