Canada’s existence is on the line

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/02/2025 (223 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Wall Street Journal calls it “the dumbest trade war in history.” In reality, it is the first salvo in the fight for Canada’s existence.

Tariffs imposed on Saturday by U.S. President Donald Trump — a 25 per cent duty on all U.S. imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada (with a lower 10 per cent rate for energy-related items from Canada), and an additional 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods — were scheduled to take effect today, but the tariffs against Canada and Mexico have been temporarily paused. They may be imposed at Trump’s whim.

Hours after Trump signed his executive order imposing the tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada would retaliate with $155 billion in tariffs against the U.S. on a range of items.

Before Trump’s announcement, Canadians were focused on convincing Trump and his advisers that tariffs would hurt Canadian and American interests alike. After the announcement, the focus has shifted to attempting to discern Trump’s true objective, the harms his tariffs will cause, and the countermeasures that might cause him to back down.

Trump’s original excuse for the tariffs — to stop the minuscule flow of fentanyl and illegal border-crossers from Canada into the U.S., and address a trade deficit caused by America’s thirst for Canadian oil — never justified the staggering economic harm the tariffs will inflict on both countries. Rather, a message posted by him on social media on Sunday, after Trudeau announced Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, lays bare what his goal really is.

For weeks, many Canadians and Americans dismissed Trump’s references to Canada becoming a U.S. state as a clumsy joke. But then he threatened to use “economic force” to annex Canada.

Trump isn’t joking. His tariffs are the first shot in his strategy to cause so much economic pain and instability that Canadians will beg to become part of America. Canada’s freedom and continued existence is on the line. He wants our land, our water, our natural resources, our nation.

How should Canada respond? We start by accepting two facts: First, retaliatory tariffs that will hurt Americans may satisfy our desire to punch back, but aren’t going to win a tariff war against the world’s largest economy. Second, Canadians can’t pressure Trump into stopping what he’s doing to us. Only the American people can do that, in the U.S. mid-term elections 21 months from now.

Trump’s behaviour is fuelled by his confidence that the American people are with him. Their support could wane, however, if their lives become harder and more expensive due to his actions.

Without their support, which currently translates into Republican control of the U.S. House of Representative and Senate, his power to behave in such a reckless manner evaporates.

He promised Americans he would make their lives more affordable, but the tariffs he imposed on Saturday will do the opposite. They will cause massive job losses throughout America, along with higher prices for countless products, services and commodities Americans rely upon.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

Paul Samyn | Editor's Note

Wednesdays

A weekly dispatch from the head of the Free Press newsroom.

Sign up for Paul Samyn | Editor's Note

Sign Up

I agree to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies, and CASL agreement.

When that happens, Trump will blame Canada, Mexico and China, and Americans will believe him if he can point to retaliatory tariffs imposed by one or more of those nations. Without those tariffs, however, he has nobody else to blame. He alone would own the crisis and its consequences.

More than two centuries ago, Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” This is one of those instances. Donald Trump has made a huge error with his tariffs, and millions of Americans will pay a huge price for his decision.

Retaliatory tariffs may feel good, but they would surrender the moral high ground in the eyes of American voters. It is in Canada’s interests to allow Trump to marinate in this crisis he has created, so that his citizens know it is his fault. That way, they will know which party’s candidates to punish in the mid-term elections.

It is the quickest path to ending this insanity.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross