Taking the right step in trade deals with the U.S. and Mexico

Public hearings on the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) began recently in Washington.

U.S. industry groups from almost every sector strongly supported CUSMA. They argued the agreement is vital to U.S. economic interests. They urged the U.S. administration not only to renew the deal, but also to drop harmful tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Yet, on Dec. 4, U.S. President Donald Trump mused that he may let CUSMA expire.

Call it a study in contrasts.

Canada’s own mandatory review of CUSMA has also begun, and with it, the chance for us to flip the script — an opportunity to define, proactively, what Canada needs from this agreement. And, to shift the larger trade relations discourse from one focused exclusively on U.S. wants and demands.

Since 2020, CUSMA has unlocked nearly $2 trillion in annual trade between our countries and created stability in an uncertain world. The past year exposed the fragility of that stability.

In the second quarter of 2025 alone, Canadian exports dropped by 7.5 per cent. This a big deal for Manitoba, where over 70 per cent of our exports, supporting more than 60,000 local jobs at 1,700 companies, go to the United States.

That is why the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, working with more than 2,000 members and partners, submitted recommendations to the federal government on what a renewed CUSMA must deliver for Canadians.

The first: predictability.

We’ve seen how fast tariff threats perform a vanishing act on business confidence. The current trade dispute resolution process under CUSMA has proven too limited to keep pace with modern shifts in trade discussion.

When tariffs appear suddenly, and with seemingly limited recourse, uncertainty spreads quickly across headlines and social media, but so too through board rooms and break rooms.

What we need is a tariff stability protocol that would trigger trilateral consultations within 30 days of any tariff increase. Slowing the current and creating the opportunity to reroute it entirely restores confidence, enabling businesses to plan investments, sign long-term contracts and move forward without fearing sudden economic shocks.

Stability alone, however, will not be enough to carry Canada forward. That’s why our second recommendation is making sure the rules that govern our economy match how it actually works today.

When Canada signed CUSMA in 2018, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, infrastructure and cross-border data rules were in vastly different stages of development.

Right now, you can use generative AI to help decide what outfit to wear to your company’s holiday party, having it spit out as many hyper-realistic photos as you wish.

But just a few years ago, using the same tool likely produced an image out of a dystopian horror film. Applying the same thinking from that era to today’s tech-driven commercial reality would leave Canadians with a trade picture just as distorted.

There’s no fault here; it’s simply the speed of technological change. But it means the agreement must now catch up.

Data is no longer a secondary input. It is core economic infrastructure and for Manitoba that is especially clear in agriculture.

Current rules that prevent forced data storage within a single country — except for short-term cases tied to biosecurity or food safety — help keep costs low for Canadian ag-tech companies. These protections allow our farmers to access real-time analytics, become more efficient and grow their business.

Preserving and strengthening these provisions, alongside clear rules for data interoperability and transparency, will determine whether Canada’s — and Manitoba’s — ag sector remains globally competitive.

And let’s talk about global competition.

Too often, national trade conversations treat provinces and cities as inputs rather than engines.

That framing misses what is actually driving the North American economy.

Winnipeg and Manitoba are core contributors to this partnership. From advanced manufacturing and aerospace to automotive supply chains, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals, our economy is deeply embedded in continental production systems.

Manitoba is home to 30 of 34 critical minerals on Canada’s national list. Our aerospace and defence sectors support continental security. Our agriculture equipment manufacturing feeds global food systems.

Recent data show our pharmaceutical sector now accounts for nearly seven per cent of provincial GDP, with firms such as Pfizer, Bausch Health and Dynacare operating in the province. These industries are operating at a scale critical to Canada’s competitive positioning, right here in friendly Manitoba.

That’s why the third, and perhaps most important, recommendation we brought is to protect the parts of CUSMA that already give businesses confidence to invest in us.

The framework on temporary entry provisions for businesspersons is a clear example.

These rules allow skilled workers to move quickly across borders to support projects and operations. Weakening those rules would immediately hurt business activity in all three countries.

The same is true for Canada’s patent rules, which need to incentivize companies to invest in new products, research and innovation by reducing uncertainty.

We see the scale of this challenge. Canada is not the largest economy at the negotiating table. The dynamic will always carry an element of David and Goliath.

But as evidenced in the recent federal budget, Canada is defining our own future with a made-in-Canada action plan. Let us carry that clarity and confidence into the CUSMA negotiations.

In doing so, we will have achieved both a renewed, stronger and more resilient trade agreement and nation.

Loren Remillard is president and CEO of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.