We can’t afford the Chief Peguis Trail expansion

One of the main projects on Mayor Scott Gillingham’s list of goals is an extension of the Chief Peguis Trail. Whether necessary or not, this is an extension the city simply cannot afford and which city council and the mayor should not proceed with.

The first reason why is fiscal. The mayor touts this project as being important to the economic future of Winnipeg, as per the CBC. The argument seems to come from the net present value (NPV) of the project (a metric which compares the costs of a project to how much income it will bring in the future). However, the NPV of the project just got downgraded from $98 million to $42 million, per a Deloitte assessment.

While this might seem like a good thing for the city, and while there is a report from city staff detailing an NPV of $280 million, the cost paid is enormous: $900 million, an amount that the city does not even have on hand, and would have to go further into debt for.

The repayment of this debt, plus any interest that accrues, will easily surpass the $42 million in benefits the city gets, with a different article on the subject by CityNews stating that this project would put us above our debt ceiling.

On top of that, the city will forever have to pay for maintenance and upkeep on the road: repairs and resurfacing, snow clearing, reinstalling things like signs or traffic lights if cars crash into them, to name a few. All of this money (the debt payment and the maintenance) will come out of taxpayers’ pockets.

Maybe not all of it will come from taxpayers today, but from those tomorrow and in future generations.

But there’s more than just the fiscal cost to consider.

It is a well-known fact across the world that installing more roads leads to induced demand: the shiny new road is devoid of any cars, so for a lot of people, it will be the fastest route they take, be it to work, to visit a friend, or something else. Then, more and more people hear about how good this drive is, so they take the shiny new road, which eventually leads to too many cars driving on it, a.k.a congestion.

By choosing to build this road, the city would be locking in more car dependency for the City of Winnipeg than it already has.

As I’m sure a lot of Winnipeggers know, anecdotally, the roads can already be quite clogged. This was codified in a recent report that put Winnipeg as Canada’s sixth-most congested city, with people spending an average of about four days of the year in a car.

This congestion and car dependency lead to many costs for Winnipeggers: extra stress from being in gridlock, or worse physical health due to sitting for so long. There are also all the usual expenses of a car, like the cost of wasted gas from idling, or extra wear and tear on the car.

Finally, by building this road, there is the opportunity cost: what are we unable to build/create due to spending this $900 million on Chief Peguis? Quite a few examples spring to mind: repairs for our existing roads (I’m sure everyone knows how it feels to drive through a pothole), funding for Winnipeg Transit, funding for active transportation (such as bike paths), or keeping city services open (I think of the Happyland Pool, for example). The list goes on.

With all that being said, it is very easy to point out a problem, which is what I’ve been doing so far.

Much better is to propose a solution, or in this case an alternative. So what is that solution/alternative?

The solution is obvious: don’t spend the money on Chief Peguis (money which, I would like to reiterate, we as a city don’t even have). The alternatives are many. I proposed a few above, like providing better funding for transit and active transport.

In terms of economic benefits to the city, these two provide many more benefits relative to the cost than a road does; this has been proven in city after city worldwide. Especially people who cycle: it’s been proven that they are more willing to stop and shop at a small business than people who are driving.

Or we could spend that money on expanding existing road and sidewalk maintenance, like adding more snowplows, for example.

A final possibility that was somewhat implied but not directly stated is simply not spending the money. After all, the city is already in incredible amounts of debt, and not worsening the debt is a good first step to take in getting ourselves out of it.

Let’s keep Winnipeg a pleasant and fiscally healthy city to live in by not proceeding with the expansion of Chief Peguis Trail.

Kele Schreckenbach is a student at the University of Manitoba who has an interest in urban planning and city design.