Tories trapped in losing loop

In early 2015, I interviewed then-Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba leader Brian Pallister regarding his experiences since becoming the party’s leader. During the course of that discussion, he said that one of the greatest challenges he faced when he became leader was that he inherited a “caucus of experienced losers.”

He told me that after four straight election losses to the NDP, Tory MLAs had become used to losing and sitting on the opposition benches, and that it showed in their attitude and work ethic. He said that too many of them were happy to collect their paycheques and put in the minimum effort. He complained that all they cared about was winning their respective ridings by as large a margin as possible, but that they didn’t give a (darn) about the outcome in the riding beside them.

He said he was working to change that reality, but that it was a tough challenge because of the defeatist attitude within his caucus.

Eleven years later, it is fair to ask if anything has really changed for Manitoba’s Tories. Last week, a Free Press poll recently conducted by Probe Research found that the NDP lead the PCs by a 55 to 32 per cent margin provincewide. Support for the NDP has increased by 10 per cent since the 2023 election, while support for the Tories has fallen by seven per cent.

In seat-rich Winnipeg, the NDP’s lead over the Tories is even larger, at 63 per cent to just 25 per cent (a drop of four points for the PCs since the March poll). Even more significantly, the poll found that the Tories are trailing the NDP in every polling category featured in the survey, including age, education, income, gender, race and region.

If those poll numbers continue to the next election, scheduled for October of next year, the NDP are cruising to a record-setting majority and the Tories are facing a catastrophic wipeout. Only a handful of seats currently held by PC MLAs can be regarded as “safe,” and party leader Obby Khan is likely in serious jeopardy of losing his Fort Whyte seat.

Given the stark reality facing the Tories, it is easy to forget they were tied with the NDP in provincewide voter support three years ago, just four months before the October 2023 election. In June of that year, Probe found that the parties each had the support of 41 per cent of voters, with the NDP holding a 48-32 lead in Winnipeg and the Tories leading by a 54-30 margin in rural Manitoba.

Given the closeness of those numbers, how did the Tories lose the 2023 election and why are they doomed to an even worse defeat next year?

It’s no secret. They ran on a platform that many voters regarded as racist and divisive. Then, days after the election, they became embroiled in the Sio Silica ethics scandal. That enabled Wab Kinew to gain his footing as the newly-elected premier and, judging by this month’s poll, most Manitobans view him as a better choice than Khan.

Voters have ample reason to feel that way. Since becoming party leader last year, Khan has failed to gain traction among Manitobans, among his party’s members and even within his caucus. I have spoken to many longtime Tories, including former MLAs and candidates, and every single one of them has told me the party has no hope of winning the next election and that Khan is just a “placeholder” leader who will be replaced after that defeat. Given that reality, it’s no surprise that the Probe numbers are as a bad as they are for the party. They regard defeat as inevitable, more than a year before the campaign has even begun.

That’s bad for the PC Party, but it’s also bad for Manitoba. Every government, no matter how popular, needs a strong opposition to hold that government to account for its actions. Governments without an effective opposition often become arrogant and reckless because they have no fear of losing the next election.

We are at risk of that happening here in Manitoba. That is, unless the Tories stop behaving like experienced losers and start getting their act together.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

Email: deverynrossletters@gmail.com | X: @deverynross