Like you, I have no idea who will win

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This article was published 10/07/2010 (5934 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

This has been the World Cup of broken stereotypes. Reputations have meant nothing; history has meant nothing.

Right from the get-go it was obvious. France, winners in 1998 and finalists four years ago, unravelled and embarrassed themselves. Italy, the reigning champions, never looked like beating anybody. Even Brazil, the consensus favourites until last week, caught an early flight home.

The unexpected finalists, Spain and the Netherlands, have dodged the typecasts as well. Spontaneous and flashy when they won the European championship in 2008, Spain have been far more guarded in South Africa. While they’ve rarely surrendered possession, they’ve also struggled to break down their opponents and have a string of 1-0 wins to show for it.

The Netherlands, conversely, might as well have swapped styles with Germany. Gone is the notion of “total football,” the smooth interchange of players and positions. The Dutch have been patient and pragmatic in this World Cup. So much so, it seems, that national team legend Johann Cruyff — the very embodiment of total football — will be supporting Spain on Sunday.

Breaking the stereotype indeed.

Needless to say, the prognosticators have not had a very good month. The upsets have been many, and the hierarchy of world soccer has been turned on its head. All of it makes for a final that’s impossible to call.

That being said, there’s a handful of things to look for when watching the match on Sunday. Here’s a breakdown of some of them. But bear in mind, nothing is a guarantee–especially in this Cup of Cups.

Goalkeeping: Iker Casillas is among the best in the world, and this tournament hasn’t hurt his reputation. Maarten Stekelenburg can be erratic at times. Advantage Spain.

Defence: Spain defend so high up the park that Carlos Puyol and Gerard Pique are rarely tested. Joris Mathijsen and John Heitinga are good, but not world class. Advantage Spain.

Midfield: The Spanish tandem of Xavi and Xabi Alonso kept Germany pegged back with their passing on Wednesday. They rarely give up the ball and are superb at putting David Villa and Andres Iniesta into scoring positions. For the Netherlands, Arjen Robben will present a tricky assignment for Joan Capdevilla and Wesley Sneijder has been the best player in this World Cup. Mark Van Bommel and Nigel de Jong are a formidable duo at the base of the midfield. Advantage Netherlands.

Attack: Robin van Persie is a reclusive figure at times for The Netherlands. While he’s held the ball up nicely, he hasn’t been a reliable scoring threat. The Dutch attack has been masterminded by Sneijder and Robben, supported by the work rate of Dirk Kuyt. David Villa, conversely, is a one-man scoring machine for Spain. He’s lethal from anywhere and can rely on the best suppliers in the business. Advantage Spain.

Key matchups: Capdevilla vs. Robben will be intriguing. Against Brazil, Robben was responsible for the exits of both Michel Bastos and Felipe Melo. They just couldn’t handle him. Capdevilla will be given the task of tracking the tricky winger in the final.

Sneijder vs. Sergio Busquets will be another battle to watch. If Busquets can manage to shut down the Dutch maestro, the game is Spain’s to win. The Netherlands have more players, like Sneijder, who will take the initiative offensively. But if they can’t keep the ball, Spain’s possession-oriented tactics will rule the day.

Spain will win if they neutralize Sneijder and keep Van Bommel and de Jong huffing and puffing as they chase the ball. Spain will want to keep the ball for extended periods, even if they do nothing with it.

The Netherlands will win if they can somehow create an up-and-down contest. This depends on the ability of Van Bommel and de Jong to win the ball off Xavi and Xabi Alonso. If the match becomes a competition of trading chances, the Dutch will win.

Prediction: Spain, on penalties

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