Harper’s rally shows Tories need Winnipeg to hold power

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 13/08/2015 (3687 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It was, from the Conservative Party’s point of view, a picture perfect event. Two hundred or so diehard Tory supporters, vetted for appropriate levels of zealousness, packed into a gaudy nightclub attached to a Polo Park area hotel. The club was festooned with Tory-blue signs and t-shirts. A mostly docile media throng was well contained in a holding pen, there to document the speech.

All this to set the stage for Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper, the first major party leader to visit Winnipeg in this campaign. It wasn’t a long stopover, just long enough for Harper to give Winnipeg supporters some grade ‘A’, premium stump speech.

If non-partisans were wondering what Harper would do with the extra time from the longest federal election campaign in 140 years, this was a good example. Wheels down, whip up the local militants, wheels up again and on to the next city.

The speech Harper delivered was unremarkable. However, even with its lack of originality, a speech like this functions as the cement that holds a national campaign together.

The Tory themes are already well established: Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is not ready to lead the country; NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is a dangerous ideologue who will tax and spend the country into the dark ages; Harper, and only Harper, has both the resolve and the experience to keep Canada safe, functional and in the black.

Given the fact this was not in any way a “public” event, Harper’s speech was solely geared towards revving up campaign volunteers.

Taking your stump speech to undecided voters is an incredible risk; stump for people who are already committed to voting for you, and you’re sure to get both a standing ovation and a top-level effort from them in local campaigns.

That does not mean, however, that all is well for the Conservative Party in Winnipeg. In fact, there were subtle tells in this tightly orchestrated event that revealed the challenges Tories will face in this city come October.

For example, Harper was introduced by Dr. Gordon Giesbrecht, the Tory candidate in Winnipeg South, and Joyce Bateman, the incumbent candidate in Winnipeg South Centre. Emcee duties for a leader’s rally are typically given to the candidates that most need the exposure. And these two candidates desperately need exposure in the lead-up to the October 19 vote.

Giesbrecht will face a tough race to fill the shoes of outgoing Tory MP Rod Bruinooge, who is stepping down after nearly a decade in the seat. Giesbrecht faces political veteran Terry Duguid, running again for the Liberals in a seat that becomes much more competitive with a close three-way national race between the Tories, the Liberals and NDP.

It’s the same story for Bateman. After knocking off Liberal veteran Anita Neville in the 2011 election, Bateman has been pretty quiet. In this election, she will face Liberal Jim Carr, former head of the Manitoba Business Council and a well-known man-about-the-riding. Notable for his absence from emcee duties was Francois Catellier, the man selected to hold Saint Boniface-St. Vital for the Tories now that incumbent Shelly Glover, the minister of heritage, is leaving politics.

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Even with a tight race nationally, the Tories are still expected to dominate Manitoba’s rural ridings. However, Winnipeg is a much more open race where nearly every seat the Tories won in the 2011 election is more or less up for grabs. Both the Liberals and NDP are gunning for Tory MP Lawrence Toet in Elmwood-Transcona and in Kildonan-St. Paul, another seat left without a Tory incumbent after MP Joy Smith retired from politics.

For now, the only Tory-held seat in Winnipeg that most insiders believe is safe is Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, held now by irrepressible MP Steven Fletcher. And even there, it’s far too early to predict what will happen two months from now.

It is difficult to build a scenario where Manitoba’s 14 federal seats have much of an impact on which party forms government. However, in a tight three-way race, one or two seats could mean the difference between forming a minority government or merely holding the balance of power in a split parliament.

No matter what happens in October, by becoming the first federal leader to visit Winnipeg in this campaign, Harper has demonstrated that he needs his Winnipeg seats to hold on to power. It remains unclear, however, whether Winnipeggers are willing to play along.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.