Can Bombers win without forcing torrent of turnovers?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 03/10/2016 (3292 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

At this point in the season, every team in the CFL has a recipe for success. Some need to throw for 400 yards to win. Others may need to hit three sacks and limit a team from rushing for 100 yards. 

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers need to force, or have their opponent surrender, a minimum of four turnovers in a game to be assured of victory this season.

In the eight games the Bombers have won to date, they forced an average of almost 4.5 turnovers. With the relatively conservative and clean way they handle the ball on offence, this creates an undeniable advantage.

In fact, they have won just one game when their opponent turned over the ball one time. When the opponents gave up the rock twice, this team lost every time.

When the opponent turned it over three times, the Blue Bombers won twice and lost once. Only when the opposition gave it up four or more times — with a high of six turnovers — did winning become assured.

Conversely, in the six games the Bombers have dropped, they have been able to take the ball away just an average of 1.5 times; giveaway and takeaway ratios are critical to every team’s success, but none are as pronounced as the ones this team has.

It should be understood while some takeaways come from having good fortune and being opportunistic, the majority are the consequence of playing tenacious football. If the ball is being carried on the ground, the first man is supposed to secure the tackle; other defenders in the area try to rip, punch or otherwise force the ball out of the carrier’s hands. 

When the ball is in the air, forcing a turnover often comes down to having proper positioning and leverage, understanding how the routes are developing and making a break on the football. This defence has been better than any other this year at stealing the football, but it has its work cut out for it when its ball-thievery mechanisms aren’t functioning at optimal levels.

Protecting the ball is a priority for Winnipeg’s offence, and it shows. Quarterback Matt Nichols rarely puts the ball up for grabs, makes poor decisions or forces it into areas where he shouldn’t. With the improved protection, he is not often separated from the football in the pocket, either. If you aren’t going to throw 400 or 500 yards a game for a bunch of touchdowns, you better be able to run the ball and be smart with it when you do put it in the air, and this crew has done both.

The problem that has arisen in most of the losses this year, is when this offence doesn’t have the benefit of a sudden change, shortened field and momentum swing generated by a significant number of takeaways, it doesn’t usually score enough points to win. Furthermore, when this defence plays an opponent that doesn’t put the ball up for grabs on a regular basis, and/or when they don’t catch any breaks, the Blue defenders surrender a ton of yards and a substantial amount of points.

Up next are home-and-home series against the 9-4 B.C. Lions and the 6-6-1 Ottawa Redblacks, last year’s Grey Cup runner-up. Bigger games, higher stakes and more capable opponents usually means fewer opportunities to take the ball away. Playoff football can be even tougher on those averages.

Heading into the final four games of the regular season, success is going to depend on how well the Bombers play when they don’t force a pile of turnovers. The first 14 games indicate it continues to be a problem.

 

Doug Brown, once a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears weekly in the Free Press.

Twitter: @DougBrown97