Pro Picks: Desperate Chiefs will beat the Colts to go back over .500

The Kansas City Chiefs are in an unfamiliar position with an even record, chasing a playoff spot.

The Indianapolis Colts are also in a new spot, leading a division they haven’t won since 2014.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-5) have no margin for error when they host Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the Colts (8-2) at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday in the most intriguing matchup on the NFL’s Week 12 schedule.

Despite the record, oddsmakers still have confidence in Kansas City. The Chiefs are 3-point favorites over the Colts on BetMGM Sportsbook. And, they have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +850 even though they’re currently outside the playoff picture.

It’s a near must-win for Mahomes and the Chiefs. Pro Picks favors the desperate team.

CHIEFS: 27-23

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-9) at DETROIT (6-4)

Line: Lions minus 10 1/2

The Giants’ biggest highlight of the week will be Cam Skattebo and teammates getting into it on WWE’s “Monday Night Raw.” The Lions need to get back on track after a lackluster offensive effort in Philadelphia. Back indoors, Jared Goff should rebound from a poor performance. Detroit’s defense stood out against the Eagles and now takes on the sluggish Giants offense. The Lions are 13-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss since November 2022.

BEST BET: LIONS: 33-17

ATLANTA (3-7) at NEW ORLEANS (2-8)

Line: Saints minus 1 1/2

Kirk Cousins returns to the starting lineup for the going-nowhere Falcons. Giving the ball to Bijan Robinson would be a wise game plan. The Saints are rested off a bye and looking for a second straight win behind rookie QB Tyler Shough.

UPSET SPECIAL: FALCONS: 22-20

BUFFALO (7-3) at HOUSTON (5-5)

Line: Bills minus 6

Josh Allen played like the reigning NFL MVP with a six-TD performance against Tampa Bay. The Texans are back in the playoff mix with consecutive wins behind backup Davis Mills. He’ll start again Thursday night with C.J. Stroud still recovering from a concussion but the Texans are first in scoring defense, giving up just 16.3 points per game. Allen is 24-5 straight up, 23-5-1 ATS against teams allowing fewer than 20 points per game.

BILLS: 23-16

MINNESOTA (4-6) at GREEN BAY (6-3-1)

Line: Packers minus 6 1/2

J.J. McCarthy has been inconsistent for the Vikings in a developmental year. They’ve won two straight games at Lambeau Field. Green Bay begins a stretch of three straight division games. The Packers have been inconsistent and haven’t looked dominant since beating the Lions in Week 1. Look for Jordan Love and the offense and Micah Parsons and the defense to put together a full game. Green Bay is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite of four or more points.

PACKERS: 26-17

PITTSBURGH (6-4) at CHICAGO (7-3)

Line: Bears minus 2 1/2

Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears when he played for Green Bay. A wrist injury may prevent him from facing them with the Steelers. Mason Rudolph would start if Rodgers can’t go. The Bears have won seven of eight, lead the NFL with 22 takeaways and Caleb Williams and the rest of the offense are protecting the football. The Steelers have lost 14 straight games straight up and ATS as underdogs.

BEARS: 20-16

NEW ENGLAND (9-2) at CINCINNATI (3-7)

Line: Patriots minus 8 1/2

Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level and Mike Vrabel has restored winning to a once-proud franchise. The Patriots have won eight in a row. The Bengals are down to playing spoiler the rest of the way. Whether it’s Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow at QB, Ja’Marr Chase won’t be on the receiving end of passes because of a one-game suspension.

PATRIOTS: 30-18

SEATTLE (7-3) at TENNESSEE (1-9)

Line: Seahawks minus 13

Sam Darnold’s big-game struggles returned in a four-pick performance yet the Seahawks still had a chance to beat the Rams thanks to another stellar defensive performance. Cam Ward and the Titans have the worst offense in the NFL. They have no chance against Seattle.

SEAHAWKS: 27-6

NEW YORK JETS (2-8) at BALTIMORE (5-5)

Line: Ravens minus 13 1/2

Tyrod Taylor gets an opportunity for the Jets, who are already looking ahead to the draft. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are back from a 1-5 start and are just one game behind the Steelers. They can’t look past the Jets, especially not after having to rally to beat the Browns. Jackson is 16-11 ATS when the Ravens are favored by more than eight points, including five straight covers.

RAVENS: 34-10

JACKSONVILLE (6-4) at ARIZONA (3-7)

Line: Jaguars minus 2 1/2

The Jaguars are coming off their most impressive performance in a few years in a dominating win over the Chargers. They’ve lost four in a row to Arizona and have to avoid a letdown. Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett completed an NFL-record 47 passes in 57 attempts in a lopsided loss to the 49ers. He’ll need another prolific passing game to give Arizona a chance.

JAGUARS: 24-20

PHILADELPHIA (8-2) at DALLAS (4-5-1)

Line: Eagles minus 3 1/2

An elite defense is carrying Philadelphia while the offense still finds its way. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are too talented to continue to struggle. Lane Johnson’s injury is a tough blow for the offensive line. The Eagles are 15-24 without him. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were excellent in a lopsided win at Las Vegas in the first game after teammate Marshawn Kneeland’s death. It’s a short turnaround for Dallas after an emotional two weeks. Prescott is 21-2 at home vs. the NFC East in his career, including 18 straight wins.

EAGLES: 24-20

CLEVELAND (2-8) at LAS VEGAS (2-8)

Line: Raiders minus 3 1/2

Shedeur Sanders will start his first NFL game for Cleveland after a miserable debut coming off the bench after Dillon Gabriel suffered a concussion. Since the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999, they’re 0-17 in a quarterback’s first career start. But the Raiders are awful in Pete Carroll’s first season. They don’t do anything well. Geno Smith will see plenty of Myles Garrett in his face.

BROWNS: 16-14

TAMPA BAY (6-4) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-2)

Line: Rams minus 6 1/2

Baker Mayfield has done well leading an injury-riddled offense but the Buccaneers are having too many defensive breakdowns. They’re 2-4 against teams that currently have winning records. The Rams barely held on to beat Seattle behind another strong defensive effort. Matthew Stafford was out of sync against the Seahawks. He should get the offense going again against Tampa Bay’s defense.

RAMS: 27-22

CAROLINA (6-5) at SAN FRANCISCO (7-4)

Line: 49ers minus 7

Bryce Young is coming off a franchise-best 448-yard passing game and the Panthers are only a half-game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. Brock Purdy excelled in his return and the 49ers scored 41 points. The Niners need Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to keep producing to offset a depleted defense missing its two best players.

49ERS: 24-19

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Last week: Straight up: 12-3. Against spread: 7-6-2.

Overall: Straight up: 118-45-1. Against spread: 84-77-3.

Prime time: Straight up: 23-14-1. Against spread: 17-21.

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-2. Against spread: 7-3-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-3. Against spread: 8-3.

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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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