Tories poised to win majority in Manitoba election: poll

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This article was published 07/04/2016 (3445 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

With less than two weeks before election day, the Brian Pallister-led Progressive Conservatives appear set to repaint the province Tory blue.

A Winnipeg Free Press/CTV telephone poll conducted by Probe Research shows almost half of the voters in Manitoba are getting ready to mark an ‘X’ next to a Tory candidate’s name on April 19.

According to the poll, 46 per cent of Manitobans say they will vote Progressive Conservative, followed by 28 per cent for the NDP, 20 per cent for the Liberals, and six per cent for the Greens.

"The numbers are actually enough to deliver a really good majority," Probe president Scott MacKay said Thursday.

"People don’t like it when pollsters get it wrong and say it’s a done deal, but it’s hard for me to say you don’t know what’s going to happen."

Because the numbers are pointing to Pallister easing himself into the premier’s chair, MacKay said the only real race is between which party will form the province’s official Opposition.

"The Tories have stayed above the fray. The only movement is between the NDP and the Liberals," he said.

He pointed to the Fort Rouge riding as an example. Outgoing NDP MLA Jennifer Howard was well liked in the riding, but Liberal candidate and party Leader Rana Bokhari could take away votes from NDP candidate Wab Kinew. If that happens, MacKay said, "You could see a Tory victory — and you could see that happen in several urban ridings."

MacKay said the Tories are not only leading in their rural heartland, but in most areas of Winnipeg, where there were several hotly contested ridings in the 2011 election. The Tories are sitting at 45 per cent in the northwest end of the city, 39 per cent in the southwest, and 49 per cent in the southeast. The NDP is leading with 50 per cent in the core area while the Liberals with 39 per cent are leading in the northeast, though Probe cautioned there was a small sample size from that area.

MacKay said the Tories have support from almost all the demographic subgroups across the province, including gender, age, education and income.

He said female voters have been a core part of the NDP vote since 1999, but now 42 per cent said they will vote Tory this election, compared with 28 per cent for the NDP and 24 per cent for the Liberals.

MacKay said what’s fascinating is the Tory majority is set to come when their percentage of support has only increased by about three per cent — to 46 per cent — since the 2011 election. The NDP, however, has tumbled to 28 per cent from 46 per cent in 2011.

The poll found 24 per cent of respondents were either undecided or wouldn’t say their voting intentions.

Paul Thomas, a political scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, said the Tory numbers don’t surprise him.

"The numbers for voting intention is where it has been for some time now, somewhere between the mid-40s to just below 50," Thomas said.

"And the rule of thumb in Manitoba is, based on the distribution of the vote, the PCs need to be in the mid-40s or higher to get a majority government."

Thomas said the Liberals shouldn’t take solace in the 20 per cent figure because unless something changes, they have already dropped lower in the polls.

"The campaign has been dogged by errors and problems so I don’t think that vote will hold up," he said.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca

Kevin Rollason
Reporter

Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.

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