Six Manitoba ridings that could flip Pundits and former MPs and MLAs for each of the three main parties weigh in on ridings they are watching closely By: Kevin Rollason Posted: 3:45 PM CDT Thursday, Apr. 3, 2025 Last Modified: 7:52 PM CDT Friday, Apr. 4, 2025 Updates

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This article was published 03/04/2025 (507 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

What looked like a surefire Liberal bloodbath heading into 2025 has morphed into a potential red wave, like the one that sent Justin Trudeau to the seat of government in 2015.

Most pundits had predicted every Liberal seat in Winnipeg was in danger of being painted Tory blue and the NDP was likely to hold two of its three seats in the province.

Nationally, the Grits were in third place, the NDP second, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was gleefully preparing to helm a new federal government.

Trudeau’s departure, the arrival of his replacement, Mark Carney, and the strong-armed trade tactics of U.S. President Donald Trump have made this election a nail-biter.

Safe ridings have suddenly become unsafe while others that leaned one way appear to have switched sides.

Polls that take a snapshot of voter intentions both nationally and in Manitoba show the possibility of a Liberal majority. In Manitoba, all four of the seats held by Liberals are in Winnipeg, the Conservatives hold seven seats, while the NDP has three ridings.

Not surprisingly, Lloyd Axworthy, a former federal Liberal cabinet heavyweight, is bullish for his party’s electoral chances here.

“I think the four Liberal seats look good and I think we have a chance of another three seats,” he said.

“The response against Trump is quite phenomenal and I think it is the NDP being affected the most.”

Rick Borotsik, a former Brandon mayor and the area’s Progressive Conservative MP from 1997 to 2004, said “even I have to admit (Mark) Carney has certainly gained some traction,” which he believes will affect the outcome of seats in Winnipeg and Manitoba.

“I think some of the Winnipeg (Liberal) seats are safe now when six months ago I would have said they were in play,” Borotsik said.

“I think the NDP are the ones who will suffer.”

The best-case scenario for the Liberals and Conservatives is to pick up a seat or two. The NDP wants to keep its three seats.

On the flip side, the NDP’s worst-case scenario is to lose all three of its ridings. The Tories fear losing their two seats in Winnipeg.

Pundits and former MPs and MLAs for each of the three parties weigh in on ridings they are watching closely:

Winnipeg West

Formerly known as Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, this riding on the west side of Winnipeg includes the RM of Rosser this time around thanks to riding distribution.

Two-term Conservative Marty Morantz is the incumbent, but Liberal challenger, and emergency room doctor, Doug Eyolfson, held it for a term before Morantz.

The last time the pair squared off, Morantz finished one per cent ahead. When Eyolfson won the riding in 2015, he had 6,000 more votes than Tory incumbent Steven Fletcher. During that election, the NDP vote collapsed.

It was thousands more votes than Morantz has ever earned.

Axworthy thinks Eyolfson “looks good, but it is still early in the election.”

University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams said he knows the ridings have changed since the last time Morantz sparred with Eyolfson but “if there is a Liberal surge, Eyolfson might take it back.”

Former Winnipeg North Centre Liberal MP David Walker said Liberal chances in the riding changed after Trudeau’s resignation and Carney was elected as leader.

“All of a sudden, it’s open again,” Walker said.

Even Borotsik believes Eyolfson has a chance.

“Six months ago, I would have said Marty, but, really now it depends on the leadership of the party,” Borotsik said. “I think that has a lot to do with who people vote for.

“I think this is a coin toss.”

Kelly Saunders, an associate political science professor at Brandon University, noted the vote count was so close last time that just about anything could swing it one way or the other.

“I know so much of the question is Trump, but with Eyolfson being an ER doctor, and health being a big question out there, maybe people would like his experience there,” she said.

“If there is a red wave, this could be a riding we see flip.”

Winnipeg South

In the city’s most southerly riding, which straddles the Red River, it’s federal cabinet minister versus former provincial cabinet minister.

Environment and Climate Change Minister Terry Duguid, who has won the riding three times in a row, is squaring off against Janice Morley-Lecomte, who served two terms as MLA for Seine River and was mental health and community wellness minister in the Heather Stefanson government, before being voted out in 2023.

Adams said he is watching this riding mostly because it has been a bellwether for decades.

“As Winnipeg South goes, so goes the nation,” Adams said. “It flips every time the government flips and it always goes with the government.”

Adams said Duguid has a lot going for him: “He is in cabinet now and he is a likeable guy, but he’s up against Janice Morley-Lecomte who served in the Pallister and Stefanson governments.

“It looked like it would go to the Conservatives four months ago, but it is better for the Liberals now.”

Former NDP MLA and cabinet minister Erin Selby agrees.

“I would have thought Terry would have had a tough fight against the Conservatives, but now I think he’s a little more comfortable now — and he is in cabinet now,” she said. “He should work hard, but I think he will squeak by.”

Selby’s daughter Avery Selby-Lyons became the NDP candidate in Winnipeg West after her mother was interviewed by the Free Press.

Elmwood-Transcona

In the 11 times this riding has voted, since its creation in 1987, the NDP has come out on top 10 times and the Conservatives once.

However, appearances could be deceiving. New subdivisions in the riding have brought in an influx of Tory voters. As well, thanks to redistribution since the last general election, this riding includes the area east to Dugald.

“People might think this is a safe riding for the NDP, but I don’t think it is,” said Adams. “It becomes more Conservative because of urban sprawl every year.”

Adams noted that Conservative Lawrence Toet won the riding in 2011 and served for a term before the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie took it back four years later by a 61-vote margin.

This vote is a rematch between Leila Dance and Colin Reynolds, who squared off in a byelection six months ago with just over 1,100 votes separating them.

“If the Liberal surge continues, it may help Leila Dance or it might be a three-way race. How will this turn out? I don’t know. It is hard to predict.”

Saunders agrees this is a riding that could break for the Conservative party.

“The Tories really did well in the byelection and (Tory candidate) Colin Reynolds is running again,” she said. “The NDP are declining, the voters are looking elsewhere… the Tories could take that back.”

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital

If Liberal cabinet minister Dan Vandal were running again, this seat would likely be secure. However, Vandal has retired and incumbency is not a factor.

Adams said that makes this riding interesting.

“People think this is a safe Liberal riding, but it isn’t,” Adams said, noting Shelly Glover held it for the Conservatives for two terms before Vandal won it three times.

“The francophone population here has diminished and the new suburbs are Conservative. It’s not a slam-dunk for the Liberals to hold it.”

Borotsik said, like Winnipeg West, this is another riding that’s “a coin toss and one to watch simply because of the leadership (of the two main parties).

“Six months ago, I wouldn’t have given a coin toss, but I think how Carney is treating Trump is playing well. Federally, it is the leadership which could make or break a seat like this.”

Selby predicted riding would flip to the NDP — something it has never done.

“There’s no incumbent and I’m really excited about this one,” Selby said. “We have such a strong candidate in Thomas Linner. He has made himself a really strong person for health for years and he is known in the area and he understands politics.”

Shola Agboola is running for the Tories while Ginette Lavack is running for the Liberals.

Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski

This is the province’s largest federal riding and one of the country’s largest. It is also the only one in the province in which the dominant population is Indigenous.

The NDP’s Niki Ashton has been elected five times, while the Liberals, who only nominated a candidate a few days after the writ dropped, on March 23, are going with Rebecca Chartrand, who narrowly lost to Ashton a decade ago.

“The north is in play right now,” said Adams.

“Niki Ashton has the advantage of being the incumbent, but this riding has gone Liberal in the past. (For example) Tina Keeper and Elijah Harper. If the Liberals are winning, people might think it would be better to go with the Liberals this campaign, but Niki Ashton has the advantage of the NDP, the Ashton name, incumbency, and money.

“It’s a riding to watch, but I’m not predicting because it could go either way. I’m watching it.”

Saunders said the drop in national support for the NDP — some polls suggest it may not have official party status after the election — could affect this riding.

“Even though Niki Ashton has built a fortress Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski, it’s not as if the Liberals haven’t ever won here before,” Saunders said.

“Rebecca Chartrand did well in 2015 and, being Indigenous and someone from up north, she might give Ashton a run for the money.”

Selby said she still votes on Ashton to win.

“She is a very strong voice,” she said. “I think the Liberal candidate was born there, but doesn’t live there.”

Winnipeg Centre

With the NDP tanking in the polls nationally, many have said NDP MP Leah Gazan could be in trouble.

While many wonder whether the incumbent NDP MP will be knocked out, just as NDP Pat Martin was in 2015, Adams doesn’t think so.

“I’m not so sure it is in play,” he said.

“It was held for one term by Robert-Falcon Ouellette when he won in 2015, but he had run for mayor and he was kind of a media darling at the time. It’s not one of the seats I’m looking at too closely.”

Walker, who represented this riding from 1988 to 1997, isn’t so sure.

“I don’t sense the NDP member has deep roots in the community,” he said. “She won’t be able to withstand a vote switch to the Liberals.”

Saunders said: “If the NDP are to hold on anywhere, it would be there.”

“This is one of the poorest ridings in the country. I really think all three of the NDP ridings are in play and it is because the NDP are so low in the polls.”

Selby said the NDP will hang on to the seat against Liberal Rahul Walia.

“We lost it to Ouellette, but that was when we saw a red wave. It’s a riding which worries less about what’s happening at the top and one which checks who works best for them.”

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca

Kevin Rollason
Reporter

Kevin Rollason was a general assignment reporter at the Free Press.