Manitoba Liberal voters flocking to NDP: poll

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This article was published 20/09/2023 (760 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

On the first day of the 2023 Manitoba election campaign, longtime Liberal party heavyweight Lloyd Axworthy announced his support of NDP Leader Wab Kinew.

Turns out, Axworthy isn’t the only Liberal supporter with similar feelings.

A Free Press-CTV poll conducted by Probe Research has found half of respondents who voted Liberal in the last provincial election (2019) plan to cast a ballot for the NDP on Oct. 3.

The Liberal party in not alone in bleeding supporters.

The poll also found 15 per cent of Manitobans who last voted for the Progressive Conservatives and then-leader Brian Pallister will vote for Kinew and the NDP this election.

The NDP is holding on to almost nine out of 10 voters who cast their ballot for its members in the last provincial election, according to the poll.

“One of the subtexts of this election is the collapse of the Liberal party,” Scott MacKay, Probe president and founder, said Wednesday. “Fifty per cent of those who voted for them (in 2019) are going to vote NDP this time. The high numbers the NDP has is because of the Liberal numbers.

“The party didn’t have a full slate (49 in 57 electoral districts) of candidates — which optically looks bad — but it also means someone who wants to vote Liberal will go to place their ballot and find there is no candidate.”

Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont said he disagrees with Probe’s findings.

“Our own internal polling does not show any issues with our incumbents and targeted constituencies,” Lamont said. “Willard Reaves is neck-and-neck with Obby Khan in Fort Whyte, and we are competitive in multiple other ridings.

“All of this comes before the major debate of the election has even been held. We believe the best result for Manitobans would be to ensure there are as many Manitoba Liberals in the legislature to hold a minority government accountable.”

Kelly Saunders, associate political science professor at Brandon University, said the poll numbers show the effects of a provincial political party that has been struggling for years.

“Kinew has really been trying to speak directly to Liberal voters,” Saunders said. “It looks like the strategy of the NDP to pull away Liberal voters is working.

“It does not bode well for the Liberal party going forward.”

Chris Adams, adjunct professor of political science at the University of Manitoba, agreed with that stance.

“This is really bad news for the Liberal party,” Adams said. “They are really an urban party and they are sitting at only 11 per cent in Winnipeg.

“It’s looking like a two-party battle in Winnipeg and across the province.”

The poll of 1,000 Manitobans was conducted Sept. 7-18, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca

Kevin Rollason
Reporter

Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until 1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.

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